Again, refiners are seasonal and subject to weather problems. Earnings are very predictable and analysts are very close in their predictions.
As for Cramer on refiners he has no clue what he is talking about. He said "buy" after August earnings last year because they reported a blow out quarter and Cramer has the tendency to pump stocks that are flying. What happened was we were going into the shoulder months of fall, unless there are hurricanes the crackspread was going to go down.
Besides people correctly knew democrats were going to take over andit wouldn't be good for oil sector in general.
Please don't follow Cramer on this and don't embarass the guy anymore asking him about oil. I am just so sick of hearing him.
By the way last year also they had predicted hurricanes,but all the storms were pushed away from land by el nino. It is hard to predict those even for experts more than a couple of weeks into the future.
Cramer should have been more specific on which earnings report. It is clear that with the current crack spreads and inventory numbers that second quarter is much more likely to be a blow out quarter than the first quarter. To me it seems counterintuitive to sell when a company is in the sweet spot and you know the best is yet to come. For a company with a PE of 40 or 50 like Cramer usually likes, that seems more reasonable. However, for a company with a PE of 7 and YOY earnings growth of over 30% it seems he's lost his mind.