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Valero Energy Corporation Message Board

  • ah673000@aol.com ah673000 May 1, 2013 12:23 PM Flag

    Reality 101

    VLO stock price is NOT undervalued IF we are going back into a recession.

    What do you guys see ? In my area , we are looking better from building activity.... But a poll of our local businesses suggest otherwise. Most small businesses are reporting business down this year to date .

    CNBC has been reporting mixed data.... More people buying new PU trucks.... Retail clothing and food sales are down..... AAPL is getting hammered ... Tech sales are down..... Gasoline sales are down in the USA ytd... Etc.

    Today margins are getting hammered .....

    So.... If you are buying or holding VLO here you are betting we are NOT going into a recession . If you are selling or not buying you bet we are.

    Frankly it is that simple.

    AH

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    • I was sitting in the Dr's office last week, and I picked up a magazine called Infowar. In it, it mentions that unemployment is actually at 23%. A lot of the unemployed have stop lookig for jobs and are no longer counted. Well, many of us here already know that, and yet you keep hearing that unemployment is at 7.7%. I don't know how reliable Infowar Magazine is, but I know unemployment is not down to 7.7%. If this 23% is correct, then that puts us right behind Spain which, the last time I heard, had a an unemployment rate at 25%. Last I heard, too, Spain was in a depression.

      Sorry for the nagativity, but I only post what I see.

      D.

    • Refiners are gettng hit by the lemmings who are shouting the gap is closing the gap is closing, etc. vomit.

      RBOB is down 10 cents today. If this results in lower gas prices at the pump, then consumer confidence increases and this will drive another round of economic activity and equity prices including refiners. Kleese and his guys forecasted the closing gap and are planning accordingly. They should start reminding each of the analysts that VLO's business plan is not as dependent on the gap as the Mid Cons.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • Pretty soft in Ohio, no one's partying like it's 2006.

    • The way I'm seeing it is that China is slowing quicker than anyone thought, at least half of Europe is in recession now (and according some even Germany is in recession), not much growth or demand from 3rd world folks, Canada is slowing and the ISM dropped today to 50.7 meaning the US mfging is at a stand still. Also as reported, true unemployment is running over 10%. Building may be picking up, but the buying is not...

      The Bster can pump 85B each month into the economy with his buying, but where is that money going? 1) Buy more treasuries by the sellers or 2) into the stock market. Neither of these do anything for the economy.

      I am long VLO, HFC and TSO. I think this is just a soft spot (like the last 3 years) that we we''ll work through, however who knows for sure as we only know when we WERE and/or ARE in recession, not when it starts. The only thing really making me think this is a head fake, is that oil never got to ridiculously high levels which happened prior to nearly every other recession.

      We are at a very interesting juncture for sure...

      GLTA

    • Mr. Bernanke will not stop pumping money into the economy until the employment targets are reached. Until then I believe we will see a wide disparity between asset classes because of the artificial inflation the money pumping does. The mortgage writers are back at it and people are feeling the itch to buy new homes again. Companies like NLY are probably going to be underwater once the interest rates change, but I can't foresee the rates changing until 2014. The market is still shaky.

      One bright spot I see on a global scale is the desire for more oil. Once the jobs get rolling again in the USA I believe we will see the demand for gasoline to jump back to pre-recession levels. Analysts believe American's have bought so many efficient cars that it has limited the demand. However, I still believe Americans are concerned about their lack of income and high gasoline prices. If we see the prices come down to the sub $3 level we will see an increase in demand. I don't see why analysts are deaf to this line of thinking. It is Economics 101.

    • A recession with the feds pumping about 60 Billion a month into the economy for as long and as far as the eye can see? . I vote no recession and I think its a rather easy vote.

 
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