Valero Energy Corporation Message Board

  • vlono.1fan vlono.1fan May 9, 2013 8:24 PM Flag

    WTI-Brent Discount

    Curious, what do folks on this board think? The WTI-Brent discount has come in (narrowed) to about $8 hurting Mid-con refineries. Do you think it will widen or stay at $8 or below?

    Fan

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    • ah673000@aol.com ah673000 May 10, 2013 3:54 AM Flag

      Fan...... Anything under $9-12 is an anomaly. Remember it costs $9-12 to move crude by rail vs $4 to move crude by conventional means. I see the discount stating in the $12-15 range this year until more infrastructure is installed.

      VLO is in a sweat spot now, Hfc in a pinch spot now, PBF is ok.

      All will do fine going forward at these stock prices, but you need to Pre pick exit prices when they over shoot the stocks again.

      No high fiveing this time....

      Btw.... First exit point coming up on Xom .... Be ready. When this spread flips , they will take Xom down as VLO/ PBF and maybe Hfc go up.

      It is a big game on a chess board .

      AH

    • that $8 spread is going to crack like a fortune cookie. Tommorow you will see big moves the other way. heres the thing if WTI goes up and narrows the spread there is no longer a need for WTI. Think about it As soon as it hits this level their is a key reversal. Trend will continue. Perhaps the option pit sees this pop also.

      Data for this Date Range (WTI Spread)
      May 6, 2013 9.20
      May 3, 2013 9.35
      May 2, 2013 6.62
      May 1, 2013 7.60
      April 30, 2013 8.31
      April 29, 2013 8.79
      April 26, 2013 9.76
      April 25, 2013 8.35
      April 24, 2013 9.64
      April 23, 2013 10.04
      April 22, 2013 10.26
      April 19, 2013 10.90
      April 18, 2013 9.65
      April 17, 2013 10.19
      April 16, 2013 9.15
      April 15, 2013 10.57
      April 12, 2013 9.35
      April 11, 2013 10.18
      April 10, 2013 10.21
      April 9, 2013 9.90
      April 8, 2013 9.80
      April 5, 2013 11.22
      April 4, 2013 11.83
      April 3, 2013 12.80
      April 2, 2013 12.43

      April 1, 2013 11.66
      March 28, 2013 11.22
      March 27, 2013 11.98
      March 26, 2013 11.11
      March 25, 2013 12.11
      March 22, 2013 13.10
      March 21, 2013 13.95
      March 20, 2013 15.06
      March 19, 2013 14.47
      March 18, 2013 14.83
      March 15, 2013 15.83
      March 14, 2013 15.07
      March 13, 2013 15.04
      March 12, 2013 16.04
      March 11, 2013 16.57
      March 8, 2013 16.90
      March 7, 2013 18.89
      March 6, 2013 19.80
      March 5, 2013 19.54
      March 4, 2013 19.77
      March 1, 2013 19.43
      Feb. 28, 2013 20.17
      Feb. 27, 2013 19.40
      Feb. 26, 2013 20.33
      Feb. 25, 2013 21.81

 
VLO
51.00-0.92(-1.77%)Jun 30 4:03 PMEDT