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Valero Energy Corporation Message Board

  • bluecheese4u bluecheese4u Jul 11, 2013 9:10 AM Flag

    IEA sees 20-year supply peak outpacing demand in 2014

    IEA sees 20-year supply peak outpacing demand in 2014

    July 11, 2013 at 7:02 am by Bloomberg

    Oil supply will outstrip an acceleration in demand growth next year as production outside of OPEC expands at the fastest pace in 20 years, the International Energy Agency predicted.

    World oil consumption will climb by 1.2 million barrels a day next year, up from 930,000 a day in 2013, the IEA said in its first monthly report with forecasts for 2014. Supplies from outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will jump by 1.3 million barrels a day amid booming output in North America, shrinking the need for crude from the 12-member producer group, according to the report.

    The assessment should “give bulls some cause for alarm,” the Paris-based adviser to oil-consuming nations said. “While demand growth is also forecast to pick up momentum,” this “will still fall short of forecast non-OPEC supply growth.”

    Brent crude has lost about 2 percent this year, trading today near $109 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange, as economic stagnation in Europe, slowing expansion in China and threats to recovery in the U.S. constrain fuel consumption. Dependence on OPEC is dwindling as new drilling techniques enable the U.S. and Canada to unlock reserves from rock formations deep underground.

    Global demand will average 92 million barrels a day in 2014, advancing by 1.2 million barrels a day, or 1.3 percent from this year, according to the IEA report.

    IMF Revision

    The agency said that today’s forecast hasn’t yet incorporated a reduction to 2013 economic growth estimates made by the International Monetary Fund on July 9. The Washington-based IMF trimmed its projection for global growth this year to 3.1 percent, from 3.3 percent.

    The agency boosted its estimate for demand in 2013 by 220,000 barrels a day from last month’s report, estimating that oil use will expand by 930,000 barrels a day, or 1 percent, to 90.77 million a day this year. The revision, the

 
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