Last earnings they said everything was on schedule for a great year. Their fleets are contracted out at least until 2013. If there were any significant difficulties they would be required to issue a press release therefore if shorts know something that should be public info then someone is in a lot of trouble. If shorts are just pushing the stock around why don't investor swing in and scoop up shares unless it is their policy to sit tight when there's short interest until management issues a press release of they see other big holders start to buy.
ya think so ? Gee, you mean they don't want to buy high ? This is the problem, you get a low float stock and it's a great one but it would run up to $30 in a heart beat. What good would that be for a hedgefund ? They might as well run it up a little, pound it down a little and run it back up again. They can do this for forever and make a lot more than if they just bought it and held. Hopefully each time they knock it down it just goes down to a higher low.
Mazza...I am teling you again, read rule424B3 dated 3/12/2012 on CJES's website. It is required to be filed by a company when IPO stockholders are able to sell their shares. NO MONEY GOES TO THE COMPANY, so all sales are treated as retail sales. The transactions have begun and with the huge overhang of sales, their is no real support area. How many of the shares will be sold?, I cannot tell you that. The filing shows every holder, # of shares and value. No mystery to me for the selloff. Just do some digging and in this case it is easy since the filing can be found under investore relation tab of CJES's website. End of story.
Also what sticks out is that shorts were dumping huge blocks of shares. Anyone looking to get out at the best price doesn't dump shares like that. Even a normal short will sell into strength to get the best price and then let the fundamentals bring the stock price down over the course of months as margins deteriorate. But that is not the case here. The fundamentals have not deteriorated. Management sees strong growth for their services. So strong that they are rapidly expanding their fleets. They are not tip toeing into the future. And so far insiders and institutions are not selling. The only ones selling here are the shorts.
Looked over the charts for the past six months. Would not be surprised to see this fall into the mid 16's (again), then rise as we approach earnings.
I'm long the stock as well as long June and Sept calls. If this falls that low, I'll load up on the June calls.
My big mistake (in hindsight) was to not sell my calls earlier, but I thought this would catch up to a meaningful valuation. Was I ever wrong.
This looks like it will be a rollercoaster for awhile, so I'll play the ups and downs.
I don't think Warren Buffet could have called that this stock would go down this low. I do believe that there are periods when everyone is jumping on the bandwagon and certain sectors keep rising beyond what is reasonable and reason goes out the window when people watch a chart climb week after week. Just as reason goes out the window when they see a chart like CJES drop absurdly low with nothing fundamentally wrong and they're simply too afraid to buy because someone is shorting it. It's easy to have conviction when your stock is rising but hard when it's falling. I continue to believe that "all we have to fear is fear itself". Last summer HAL was much higher and yet the economy was not as strong as it is now and oil was not as high. Perhaps, the market can't get past weak prices in nat gas and they think that all service providers are going to have increased competition. And maybe the market is avoiding the whole fracking sector because there is uncertainty in their minds that fracking won't be banned. It's irrational fear and uncertainty I guess.
Mazza: you know better then that we have 4 contracts that are in question any news that they have been renewed will remove one of the shorts bullets, until then expect anything. Bought a little more here today at 17.95
I just spoke with IR again and I've done a little research. They have 2 fleets contracted until mid 2012, 3 until mid 2013, one until 2014. All fleets are being employed pretty much full time. In other words their customers are using the services they're paying for. It's not customary for these customers to renew contracts until sometime sooner to their expiration. Business is strong and there are no material difficulties. I asked about availability to water since frackers use a lot, no problem there. I asked about litigation, no problem, nothing pending. I asked about changes to the tax code, nothing they've heard about. I asked about the two analysts that gave them a mediocre forecast and they have not spoken to them about why their forecast was on the lightside. They have no problems with their supply chain of sand and chemicals. So far they say that everything is going strong. Like I said, if there was any material reason for their forecast to change they would be required to issue a PR.
One of the recent articles, SA maybe, sited the high short interest and said that alone would keep some investors away. That was an understatement! And it only gets worse. Down again at the close.
Well I'm adding to my position here. Stock is insanely cheap and I think eventually the market will realize that and price it properly. Until I see something concrete telling me different then this selling to me is nothing more than a great buying opportunity.