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  • semitruth15 semitruth15 Feb 3, 2010 10:21 AM Flag


    Big deal - these clowns got their organic revenue back near their 2007, early 2008 run rates. Why is that such a big accomplishment when the semiconductor market is recovering to near full capacity? The big news is that there isn't a new excuse as to why the SDS business didn't miss their targets and drag down earnings. If any analyst actually calls in to dig into this company vs. trying to figure out what AMAT will be doing the next few quarters, here's some questions to ask:

    -How much revenue (real dollars, not a nice political answer) are you realizing from projects that have been developed fully with the Intermolecular tools?

    -Why aren't you talking about Regensi or Autoclean any more? Have you given up on these world changing products?

    -How much have you invested in the Intermolecular tools, and what has been your ROI to date on that investment? How has this investment impacted your return on capital? How much revenue per year do you need to generate to make your ROC > COC for this investment?

    -What is your new product sales (commercialized <= 3 yrs) as a percent of your total revenue? Your organic revenue has come back as the industry has recovered, as everyone in your space has, but have you grown beyond your normal base? The revenue you report indicates that you haven't had any wins in the last 12 months where you've taken share. Can you confirm this? If you say you have taken share, how much will that be worth in 2010?

    -What is your business model now? You have promoted yourself as a growth company, yet you haven't grown faster than wafer starts for years, and you say you're going to invest more in R&D. What is finally different that you might actually get some return for this investment?

    -You've been touting the high productivity tools for 2 or 3 years now. How much revenue have you realized from them already, and what do you expect to earn from them in the next 3 years?

    -What is going on with your relationship with Anji? Your investment in CMP was going to change the world, but you don't talk about it any more. Why not? Are you still in CMP, or are you out? Why, for either answer?

    -The flat panel makers are using 90% less color filter as a result of changes in the application process, and they are using larger containers, which cause a drop in the number of containers and liners consumed. How do both of these changes help your Nowpak business in FPD? Also, FPD has been running full since Q2 2009. How can you say that Q4 FPD revenues helped the Nowpak business?

    -How many people did you lay off in 2008/2009, and why did you never have an SEC announcement about these layoffs? What was the number by function you laid off, and why is your G&A still so high if you were making significant structural changes?

    -Doug, your rhetoric hasn't changed for years, and you haven't produced results for years to live up to your grand proclamations either. Why should we believe anything you tell us?

    Come on analysts - stop throwing softballs to just get wafer start information for your guidance on other companies. Ask these guys legitimate questions to let the world know they don't have the talent to grow this company. You owe it to the sharehlders.

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