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Osiris Therapeutics, Inc. Message Board

  • ozark580 ozark580 Aug 15, 2013 11:30 AM Flag

    Osiris overview

    Most of the true longs know the full Osiris story and it has just begun. The Osiris Prochymal Stem Cell product has been developed for the horrible GvHD disease and is already approved in Canada and New Zealand and very close to being approved in Switzerland...perhaps within weeks or even days. Australia, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom and the USA have all given approval for Prochymal to be used early for the dying children, in advance of full product approval.

    Dr. Mills has said that Prochymal is now being used somewhere in the world at every hour of the day. His revenue estimates for Prochymal/GvHD are between $200 to $250 million in the USA and double those figures when including foreign Sales. With Osiris' 70% Gross profit margin, this amount of revenue would translate into at least $4.50 per share of earnings, after taxes are paid. A conserative average price/earnings ratio of 17 would make this product worth at least $76 per share.

    Right behind Prochymal for GvHD, Osiris has Prochymal for Crohns disease which is nearing completion of a Phase 3 FDA trial. And behind that, Osiris has Prochymal for Acute Myocardial Infarction (heart attack) which is in a FDA Phase 2 trial. Both of these indications are each at least 6 times larger than the GvHD indication.
    And finally, the Therapeutics division also has an Arthritis product called Chondogen which is in an FDA Phase 2 trial.

    All of the above products are just those in the Therapeutics division of Osiris. But, Osiris has another division called the Biosurgery Division. This Biosurgery Division is the one that has the products we've most recently heard about; Grafix, Ovation and Cartiform, all of which are brand new, but commercially availble and being sold right now. In fact, Osiris just recently doubled their Grafix Sales force and Sales are climbing at an astounding 30% rate, quarter over quarter. And, coming before the end of this year will be another new product called OvationOS.

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    • I'd guess that the Shorts wouldn't want to hold over the weekend so many may cover before the end of the day.

      We've got two more catalyst that are right on the brink of an announcement. 1) The Switzerland Prochymal GvHD approval is due at anytime and would open the door to all of the European countries. 2) The collaboration and partnership of Prochymal with a big Pharma company, which is probably waiting on the Swiss approval. These will both be blockbuster events and attach the shareprice onto the back of a rocket again. Not a safe environment for a weekend short position.

      I, on the other hand, would prefer the slow pace of steady growth, which is what Osiris is really all about, dressing for the future. Osiris doesn't really want to be a glamor go-go stock, They would rather listen to the clink of test tubes and to the sound of the cash register ringing and be satisfied with a 30% quarter over quarter growth, just like the last two quarters.

      In 5 years, we'd like to lay the Osiris chart over the top of the Amgen chart and see a perfect match...I think we will get our wish.

    • To the top mate!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Bump! Bump! Bump!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Oz, do you ever wonder about Osiris' dark IP?
      The IP that perhaps is only discussed in the conference room in Switzerland.
      The IP that when asked about by myself was met with the response, "No comment."
      The IP that Amit Ghate is clueless about.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Thanks for the overview Oz!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • There are no true logs selling at this time. There are too many catalyst ready to send this stock soaring again. In the long term we are looking at a triple digit share price and more than likely...way over $100.

      Osiris has the look of a future Amgen type of stock. With the products they have now, Osiris will grow and grow and keep growing for many years to come.

    • Where's the sell number from their approved indication?

    • Oz and company (you know who you are) always, the BEST!!!! Just the facts....just the facts....

    • ozark580, thanks for you take ......however, if your math is correct then why has this given back 7 bucks?

      • 4 Replies to chewy6217
      • Thanks Ozark. Could be some of the traders will take notice and temper their enthusiasm, both long and short.

        7 Bucks? Logic or just a simple reality. At $27.50 more sellers and shorts reversed the trend downward. I suspected it to play out the way it has. If you're not accutely aware of OSIR developments and pending news releases, selling short is worth a shot. If you are relying on the available blogger news, I can assure you that you're in the dark.

        So being long is not all good, especially if your sights are set really high. Kind of a curse experiencing the volatility. And the long plan has to come together. The outlook gets better everyday.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • It hasn't given back anything, For the true longs, Osiris has recemntly risen from $10.66 to $21; nearly a 100% gain in value and we will hold for the next incremental rise. Many of us are up over 300% total and we didn't even have to worry, we slept well at night.

      • Chewy,
        You're looking at this strictly from a price/technical standpoint when what you heard from OSIR this week was a paradigm shift in treatment! Think about it!

      • Say hello to Adam F for me. Due diligence is key... after that type of run up, retracting is normal. Think long term if you can or just continue to keep following Adam, whatever works for you.

    • Great summation, as usual O ... but didn't you read today's SA article that places NO value on the therapeutic division? The author cites Adam F's analysis as proof! (noted sarcasm)!!!

      • 1 Reply to minnesotafarmcountry
      • Let 'em keep selling. They don't realize this is creating buying opportunity for the people who realize what a game changer this technology is. Diabetics who has suffered with foot ulcers, or worse, had a leg amputated realize that, first and most importantly, this is a lifesaver. Many don't live more than five years after amputations. Second is the cost-savings for insurance carriers.
        These are the same folks who would have shorted Intuitive Surgical years ago when its introduced the DaVinci robot. Take a look at the history of its stock price.
        I'm still up more than 100 percent on this stock, so let 'em drive down the price. I'd love another opportunity to buy in the teens

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

18.73+0.59(+3.25%)Aug 28 4:00 PMEDT