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Osiris Therapeutics, Inc. Message Board

  • bonkthegrups bonkthegrups Oct 11, 2013 8:19 AM Flag

    My prediction

    I expect a small bump in OSIR's price followed by a pretty quick reversal as the market digests this "news".

    OSIR has a $600 million market cap and just unloaded the MSC "business" for really about $65M as the rest is pie-in-the-sky.

    LOL. How much did OSIR plow into MSCs? Retained earnings are about minus $250 million so my guess is at least $200M was flushed down the MSC toilet.

    So backing out the cash without the MSC business you have a half billion valuation based on what? Biosurgery? LOL

    If I told you guys two years ago that OSIR would be dumping off the whole MSC business for $65M you would have howled with rage.

    I have to say it feels really good to be vindicated.

    I'm short in the low 20s and will stay short. I did sell some 15 puts to capture the insane vol to buy some Feb 24 calls as a hedge but I think if OSIR gets above $20 I may start to really pour on the short.

    I do have to give Rockin' Randy some credit though - now he can keep bumbling for a few more years at least, crankin' out those press releases.

    $500M for minimally manipulated off the shelf stem cells on a bandaid? Hmmmm..

    (wink wink cimcbride - thanks for asking me to come back and post)

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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    • You Got That Right ! This Stock is only worth about $ 4.00 Right Now ! Tutes Will Be Bailing Bigtime on this Massive Loss in Shareholder Equity ! OSIR is Toast ! Burnt Toast ! Randy Says Happy Halloween ! They spent 5-600 Million to develop Prochymal and sold it all for a Paltry 53 Million ! Shareholders Got Hosed Bigtime !

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • Wrong as usual but forever clever. We'll let the market decide.

      If I recall you first shorted OSIR at $8. And then the SNY debacle followed. How did the current price get so high?

      Keep on bumbling Randy and Bonk be nimble and Bonk be quick and Bonk jumped...........

      • 1 Reply to cimcbride
      • "If I recall you first shorted OSIR at $8."

        This is true. And covered in the 4s. I posted when I covered if you care to look. The thesis at the time was that the spike up to the 8s over Prochymal was unwarranted as I view Prochymal as virtually worthless. Looks like I nailed that.

        I ignored OSIR until the huge recent melt-up on the diabetic foot ulcer nonsense. I view the valuation as outrageous and frankly don't see a lot of IP here - if it's really minimally manipulated (which it has to be or the FDA will shut them down like they've started doing with others) then by definition there isn't much competitive moat. And in any case $500M supporting that business is outrageous.

        But a lot of fluff companies are getting big runs in this "risk on" market. Not surprising. Maybe OSIR runs to $30. I hope it doees as I have lots of room to short more - I always start small and ramp it up if things go against me.

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