Osirs once estmated their Total Addressable Market (TAM) for the USA like this:
Burns $150 to 300 million
Limb Salvage $1 billion
Diabetic Foot Ulcers (DFU) $2 billion
Hip Revision $500 million
Spine Fusion $900 million
Cartilage repair $500 million
Total $5.05 billion
Double these numbers to include foreign Sales
Grand total $10,1 billion
If Osiris captures only 4% of this total market then they will have annual revenues of about $404 million. 4% seems to be the average market penetration for Wound Care companies and the top 5 do about 7% each.
I think these numbers are very conservative! For example, there are 150 million diabetics worldwide and 25% of them will have a DFU event somtime during their lifetime. Average number of Grafix treatmens are 6 per DFU, at $2,600 each. As can be seen, just a small percentage increase in market penetration would result in a huge revenue uptick
You once posted predictions of OSIR future share price (and I think you are on target for $30pps end of this year with the recent sale of assets)...but do you still think shares will reach $600 in however many years you said they would? Im planning on keeping my shares for the next 2 - 3 years. I'm hoping/praying they can crack at least 4% of the combined $4 billion market you outlined above. Just curious, with the sale of prochymal (and the royalties revenue) do you still have as high of expectations for the eventual share price? And where do you think they will be in 2 - 3 years.