Sat, Dec 27, 2014, 4:36 AM EST - U.S. Markets closed

Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Meritage Homes Corporation Message Board

  • imwiththedog imwiththedog Sep 28, 2005 3:38 PM Flag

    if you don't think that MTH

    will be upgraded by at least two analysts in the next week, then you will be very surprised. this is a very significant upward revision in earnings expectations.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • OK I sold my puts today. Bleeding looks to have stopped for now, but if this dead cat bounces, Im shorting again, cuz this is headed to 40's at least.

    • Yes, I look at charts. I admit when I am wrong. You are right. I was wondering if there would be support at 200 day. It looks as though it is crashing through 200 day. Just sold both Nov call positions for a loss. Fortunately, I did not risk all that much here. Hey, thanks for being so professional in your posting.

    • <EOM>

    • Hey morons, still crunching numbers? ever try looking at a chart?

    • OK, thanks, showmebll. I think I'll hold my calls through earnings. If they say they should hit around $9/sh full year and that excludes the one time charge, then we are still looking at at least $3/sh each of the next two quarters. I have not been following this stock long, and do not anticipate following it any longer than next two earnings.
      I am looking for a good one time "pop".

    • Here is a quote from the PR about Meritage raising it's EPS view:

      "Meritage projected earnings per share of $8.25 to $8.50 for 2005, up 50 cents over the company's previous estimate. Excluding a one-time bond financing charge of 69 cents, the company said it would earn $8.94 to $9.19 a share in 2005, above the average analyst estimate of $8.89."

      If you've followed Meritage for any length of time, you know that they are very conservative with their estimates. Given what they've stated and looking at their recent past, I would anticipate 2005 actuals to be close to $9.50/sh excluding the $0.69/sh one time charge.

    • I would say no, it would not include the $0.69/sh one time charge.

    • showmebll, with that established, would the full year estimate include the $0.69 or exclude it? Thanks for the clarification.

    • I believe you are correct. A friend of mine brought this to my attention late last week. Here is the e-mail I sent back:

      Well, first I see the CMF negtive depth is shallower than the last negative CMF. That, I think, should mean that selling is losing strength and will be ending the short term downtrend. Also, it closed above its ten day moving average, and found support at the 200 day. We need to see how these pre numbers stack up against past years numbers INCREASES. If they are looking at 47% increase this year over 2004, but had 94% increase in 2004 over 2003, this may go DOWN, right? Better than expected, but not as good as the past. Good, but not good enough. Almost perfect, but not perfect enough?

      I will check charts also to see what I can see. So far, looks GOOD. Although, currently I am 100% in the market. Think I've got like $250 cash right now.

      I see the short term charts all look good, 1 month, 3 month, and year to date. The all dates and ten year say it's ready for a fair pullback, but short term, I think you are right. We are going up, possibly with a big gap up after earnings announced. Are they announcing am or pm? MACD getting ready to cross to upside. 9/28 would have been the perfect buy in day, but now we have confirmation of closing above the ten day moving average for the first time since 9/16. The only bad thing I have seen so far is that the last two days(up), have been on lower volume.

      MSN shows Fiscal year 2005 estimate at $9.08/sh, with MTH own estimate at $8.94-$9.19/sh, so that's right in the middle. Look at some Q over Q earnings, and you'll see that Q1 '05 seems to be an anomaly right now, in that it was less than Q4 '04, and that Q2 '05 seems to have resumed the old trend. They did $2.05/sh last Q. That's gonna' be EXTREMELY hard to beat. But, on the other hand, IF they stand by their '05 guidance, we can make some assumptions based on that.

      Let's assume they hit $9/sh for fiscal year '05 and that the fiscal year ends 12/05. OK, with that, we know 1Q was $0.86/, and 2Q was $2.05/sh. That gives us $2.91/sh for 2 quarters so far, with $6.09 to go with 2 quarters left. So that would mean if earnings next two quarters are identical, we are looking at $3.045/sh for Q3 and $3.045 for/sh for Q4. Consensus estimate for Q3 right now is $2.40/sh, which would then leave $3.69/sh for 4Q if Q3 consensus is correct. So, based on all that, there should be a HUGE SURPRISE in one or both of the next two quaterly reports. I would think Oct calls and Feb calls might be in order here.

      Obviously, will be watching NTES like a hawk this week. Feeling good about everything there right now. I really think it's gonna be a bumpy ride, but I think we'll be over $100/sh by earnings, which I think are Nov. 1st. Even the ten day moving average is now above my call strike price ($85's and 10 day is $85.36). With three week to go, I think we are golden there. But, as we were talking before, I may cash out some OCT's and roll into some NOV's. Probably take a flyer on some NOV $120's or something like that. If the last earnings gap up was from $60 to $72, that's over 1/6 the initial stock price. If we were to do that now, it would be 15 POINTS in one day!!!!!!

      Of course the choppy up/down trading and wild swings recently make it hard to predict anything right now.


      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      • 1 Reply to emtking48240
      • You have got to be joking right?



        Let's assume they hit $9/sh for fiscal year '05 and that the fiscal year ends 12/05. OK, with that, we know 1Q was $0.86/, and 2Q was $2.05/sh. That gives us $2.91/sh for 2 quarters so far, with $6.09 to go with 2 quarters left. So that would mean if earnings next two quarters are identical, we are looking at $3.045/sh for Q3 and $3.045 for/sh for Q4. Consensus estimate for Q3 right now is $2.40/sh, which would then leave $3.69/sh for 4Q if Q3 consensus is correct. So, based on all that, there should be a HUGE SURPRISE in one or both of the next two quaterly reports. I would think Oct calls and Feb calls might be in order here.

 
MTH
35.47+0.43(+1.23%)Dec 26 4:02 PMEST

Trending Tickers

i
Trending Tickers features significant U.S. stocks showing the most dramatic increase in user interest in Yahoo Finance in the previous hour over historic norms. The list is limited to those equities which trade at least 100,000 shares on an average day and have a market cap of more than $300 million.
Virgin America Inc.
NASDAQFri, Dec 26, 2014 4:00 PM EST
3D Systems Corporation
NYSEFri, Dec 26, 2014 4:00 PM EST
Tesla Motors, Inc.
NASDAQFri, Dec 26, 2014 4:00 PM EST