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Meritage Homes Corporation Message Board

  • fy_do fy_do Sep 5, 2008 2:28 PM Flag

    Best Builder rallies now in danger

    Experienced Money-managing Builders (like BHS, TOL & MTH) and Luxury Builders (like TOL) are now in a dilemma: Their preservation of cash to get thru the "downturn" now looks totally insufficient for the serious recession that looms. The glut of foreclosures is increasing, with fierce pressure on new home prices--and foreclosure price cuts are even greater in the luxury market. Even old Mr. Toll admits that heavy discounting well hurt margins next quarter..and makes no eps predictions...TOL's loss could easily double..and look what happened to HOV when that occurred. The carefully conserved cash of BHS, MTH & TOL is now sadly insufficient to get thru a building bust lasting well into 2010. Yet these stocks have rallied the highest..and now must test their lows of Spring. Definite shorts here.

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