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Meritage Homes Corporation Message Board

  • jccalif909 jccalif909 Jul 27, 2009 11:22 AM Flag

    Home sales jump is artificially inflated

    New home sales up 11% over last month, to 384,000 a year.

    384,000 is 32,000 a month. The 11% increase represents an additional 3,000 homes sales sold month between May and June (29,000 in May, up 11% gives the 32,000 June sales number). So an additional 3,000 homes were sold June-over-May. California had a $10,000 tax credit available for purchases of NEW homes, and that credit ran out at the end of June. California's Franchise Tax Board received over 3,000 applications for the tax credit in June as people were rushing to buy a new home before the credit ran out. Now that the credit is gone, new home sales in California will plunge. There are foreclosures for sale in Calif's biggest markets that are selling for HALF of what they sold for at the peak. How can homebuilders sell a house at a profit if they have to drop prices to those levels?

    And note that new home sales are still 28% below the levels of a year ago, when new homes sold in June at an annualized rate of 530,000.

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