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Meritage Homes Corporation Message Board

  • asu_rob asu_rob Jul 27, 2009 5:38 PM Flag

    Estimates for open tomorrow?

    Estimates for open tomorrow?

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    • The weird part is there is no movement afterhours. 20.01 x 22.95 b x a
      From what I can tell there have been no trades after earning.

      • 1 Reply to asu_rob
      • Tomorrow could be rough but who knows. Are you surprised that new orders were down so much when the June sales rocked? How many quarters will institutions be wiling to throw money at Hope? Look they recorded their legal victory last quarter of $10 mil and the stock took off and this quarter a loss of $74 mil. We'll see. They dump their only hot land positions while other more flexible and nimble builders are picking up the hottest infill projects that are rocking and taking the latest surge in sales right out from underneath them. Blanford Homes is one such builder(private) in Arizona who is knocking it out of the park right now. They are framing homes like they were in 2006. Drive by a Meritage community and see for yourself if they have the building activity that other more nimble builders are enjoying and make the decision for yourself. Activity breeds activity and homebuyers are going to flock to the active subdivisions and especially the smaller active subdivisions knowing very well they will be sold out and they will not have to live in a dead subdivision for decades . The market will be in these infill projects for some time and to dump a centrally located community is odd? 17 percent negative gross margins may seem small down the road if these better positioned builders and their smaller subdivisions completely unravel the business model of old. This exact ting happened in the last downturn and the smaller builders became the larger builders as many of the largest cratered. Can they really ever get back to these huge numbers of old to sustain their stock price, especially if they are selling their lots or walking from their positions? Are investors going to bite off on the new untested biz model. Would Toll Brothers shift from Lux building to entry level in a try anything attempt to increase revenue? What would their homebuyers think is happening to their product quality, warranty etc? Well good luck I just dont know. C

    • < 5 or may be less

    • Is this a huge miss -2.37 versus -.72 estimate? Does this mean we are not quite on the road to recovery? How can the analysts estimate be so far off?

      This would appear to be headed south at least for a while more - maybe $19-20 range?

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