Here is a website:
The above link is the website for pengrowth. In case you missed the connection, it is exactly the same as the company name (www.pengrowth.com)
On www.Pengrowth.com, you will find important things like press releases, and financial statements. In these mysterious documents, you will find things like what they hedge, how much money the take in, what their payou is, how much property they own, and other information of interest. You may even find out things like what they sell!
Here is a link to the investor relations section of the Pengrowth web site:
Again, if you are new to Pengrowth, you should spend several hours on this site, learning what the company is all about!
Here is a link to an investor fact sheet: (it is only 2 pages)
Here is a link to several webcasts and presentations made by employees of the company:
Here is a link to investor relations:
Here is a link to the company take on the tax changes of the trusts:
Well done. Great read.
The energy from solar, wind, and water is unlimited. Economic dependency on oil, mainly millions of jobs, will not allow alternative energies to develop at any reasonable rate. Not without a fight anyway. The housing for wind energy consumes massive steel bodies for structural support. The shear tonnage of steel it would consume is quite the challenge in itself to make wind a competitive alternative. Then again, what does an offshore platform costs?
On the oil front, even if it renews itself organically, their is the cost of extraction in real terms (engineered shortage or not), and thus should maintain a floor on value. The investment returns in PGH is based on all these factors. The recent ascent of oil in the stratosphere can be traced to the lack of oversight a the CFTC. That is putting it mildly.
Actually, I do NOT believe that most people who "think" oil is a fossil fuel are morons.
People believe a good many things which are not factually correct, simply based on the information that is available to them, and the credence they accord to it.
Based on accumulated exposure, people develop a 'mental model' of reality - of the way they "think" the world is. This thought may or may not be correct, but it exists in the mind of the thinker, not neccessarily in reality.
When a person's 'mental model' encounters a piece of information that does not support its framework - the first impulse is to reject the information as non-credible - rather than re-evaluate the model. Thus the mocking responses to my initial assertion.
For most people, (87% actually) their reality is based on input from corporate media: television, newspapers, annual reports, and parents and teachers who are in turn informed by the same initial sources. It becomes a loop of reality by consensus.
It is very difficult for people to even FIND opposing theories to the consensus, much less evaluate them. The theory of "abiotic oil" is certainly held by more than 6 people, it is the consensus viewpoint among Russian geologists.
The theory was actually begun in Athabasca... "Russian geologist Nikolai Alexandrovitch Kudryavtsev proposed the modern abiotic hypothesis of petroleum in 1951. He analyzed the geology of the Athabasca Tar Sands in Alberta, Canada and concluded that no "source rocks" could form the enormous volume of hydrocarbons, and that therefore the most plausible explanation is abiotic deep petroleum.
The short version of the abiotic theory is this: Oil is a by product of geological processes within the earth. So like, lava or air... the practical supply is near limitless. Most oil sources run dry because they are pockets of seepage, rather than connections to source.
There is other evidence to support this theory, and you will certainly be able to find no shortage of people denouncing it as well - and with good reason...
Creating a situation of scarcity is essential to maximizing profit and control. This was an early discovery of John D Rockefeller and led to the consolidation of the oil industry by Standard Oil in the early part of this century.
What I am saying is that this condition of scarcity is even more so managed today. And with that in mind, I personally do not use the abiotic theory as a basis for making investment decisions, as the oil industry (and the policy makers above them) are not in the "truth business."
Oh and concerning the genius question, it's not necessary to be a genius to think for one's self - however it does help...
Easy oil is harder to find. Shale oil is sitting there in the rockies just waiting for it to be economically viable. We already make sythetic oil from coal and natural gas...it is not cheap though. Nuclear energy is the most viable cheap energy with bio fuels coming into the dominent fuel to replace fossil fuels. In 20 years expect most cars to run on electricity or be hybrids running on bio fuels/natural gas. Oil will still be neccessary but not the driving force today. In the mean time PGH will continue to make money and pay nice dividends.
So, let me get this straight...
The fact that theories about where oil comes from could be wrong means that oil is NOT a finite resource. How does one relate to the other?
Let's look at something that might actually be relevant with regard to oil price.
On the demand side:
Population will continue to grow to the point all resources are exhausted. We are trying to get the rest of the world to be as wasteful as we are (creating consumer markets in BRIC). This will be offset to some amount by tech inovations. The best we can hope for is demand to be flat to slightly down. This is what will happen during economic downturns and is most of the reason for the current temporary slide in price. Today there is an excess of 500,000 barrels a day that no-one can use. Price will come down until that excess can be consumed (or wasted). Maybe the airlines can add back some flights for a couple of years.
On the supply side:
While the planet may be awash in a sea of oil, new confirmed reserves are a third of consumption. We're depleting the resource. Also, some of the reserves are overstated, e.g. the tar sands require consumption two thirds of an barrel to extract a barrel. Still that's much better than ethanol, which requires 1.3 barrels to extract a barrels worth of energy.
In the short term, supplies are actually quite uneven. For example, there is a new Saudi field coming online that more than makes up for decreases in production from the Gwar field they've been pumping for thirty years. So a temporary increase in daily supply, no increase in reserves. Decreases from the Gwar field will swamp new Saudi production in 5 years.
Remaining reserves are in smaller pools, this is good because in theory, if enough rigs are put up we can continue at 85M-90M barrels per day by hopping from well to well for the next 30 years.
In the end, oil will become an expensive specialty product. Substitution of other energy product to make up the difference. NatGas is currently the golden child. It's demand can rise in to ways: Legislation (per Mr. Pickens), or naturally once oil reserves approach zero.
thanks for the info...do you have other Canadian Trusts or is this the one you settled on ?
I want in but may wait for more panic selling as oil drops even lower...you mentioned a dividend cut as a downside risk....I don't think any serious investor thinks a 30% dividend is sustainable and it shouldn't be...so hopefully that downside is already priced in...oil at $45 however is not priced in...that should be the entry point for new money...I think I would feel safe there collecting any dividend while we wait a few years for oil to climb back to the $90-100 range
Have you done enough homework to make an educated reason as to why oil may go down to $45, or did you just listen to the same traders who were spouting "$200 dollar oil!" Just a few months ago...
What research do you have backing up your statement of $45?
I have an answer why I think oil will hit a price that I am expecting. If you do your homework, and post your reasoning, then we have a converstion...
Otherwise, I HAVE NO OPINION AT THIS TIME!
Please note...I do not usually quote an expected price range without stating why I think it will be at that price...
I posted these things (previoous post), becuause before I invested in PGH, I read about every page on the site, then I read the the annual report 100%. I also Read the most recent quarterly report. After that, I listened to several of the presentatons. I then did a web search on the topic of oil and gas trusts. You can do that by going to www.google.com and typing in the following: "Canadian oil and gas trust". I put a yahoo alert on the word pengrowth to go to my email.
AND, any holding I have, I listen in on the conference call by management for the financial releases.
In other words, I spend multiple hours per week researching my positions. I know the industry and the company I am investing.
IF you are not doing that, and asking silly questions on a message board about things like, "is PGH a trust", or "What does it pay", or my favorite each and every month is "When does it pay (or "did you get your dividend?")...THEN YOU DESERVE TO LOOSE MONEY...
PLEASE! Take the time to do your research, and do it reguarly. AND, don't be lazy...DO THE WORK! Buying now is probably a good idea, but be prepared for the following:
1) Price fluctuation
2) potential price drops
3) potential dividend cut
4) It may get worse before it gets better!
5) The economy will get worse before it gets better
On the other side?
1) India and china are going to continue to consume more oil over time
2) World supplies are probably not going to keep up (Look up peak oil)
3) Mexico will become a net importer
4) Political strife will continue to effect oil production (and price)
6) OPEC wants the price higher, so production cuts will follow.
SO, if you are new on this board? DO YOUR HOMEWORK, THEN ASK STUPID QUESTIONS. QUIT BEING LAZY!