Talk about an overreaction!
First of all, PGH is solidly run. There is nothing wrong with the enterprise or its managers.
Second, while it is true that crude could trade down to $50 in a really bad econ. scenario, if you have any reasonable amount of confidence that it will again trade at $80-100, and you can stop worrying about the daily price of stocks like this, you'll do perfectly fine.
The dividend could be cut, sure. And when the price of the commodities that support the div rise once more, so will the dividend.
All we have gpoing on right now is a pronounced fluctuation in commodity price. That is the nature of the beast -- it happens over and over, over the course of the long-term.
Your logic and arithmetic don't work. Almost 2 years ago oil was at $86 on Feb 18, similar to what it is today. PGH closed at $12.55 more than double what it is today. I don't want to hear about the price of commodities controlling this stock price anymore. It's much more about other market forces.
I think it is a matter of timing, indeed money supply has been and continues to increase, the price of gold and food are reflections of currency debasement due to its increased supply. There is deflation in other areas, such as discretionary consumer (e.g. electronics); other ways to distort commodity prices (i.e. making them decline temporarily for 3-9 months) is via the use of futures, overall market manipulation by the large banks (since they do have access to virtually unlimited currency courtesy of the central bank) and media 'news' which are also aligned with the government's need to manipulate people's emotions away from the reality of long-term currency debasement. How else would a government deal with future rising financial obligations. For example, would the US government tell the public that Social Security will default and stop payment, this would never happen so the only action is to debase the currency over time. Why else would Congress elect to have their own retirement and medical plan and not Social Security and Medicare? Why isn't what is good for the public good enough for them? They are public servants?
Then why haven't we seen inflation YET? This crap has been going on for years now. It's a lost decade. If all the new money supply is being stuffed into T-bonds, that has little/no effect on inflation rate for goods and services. Keep trying to apply reason to your arguments. The light bulb might come on eventually.
Stop thinking with your CNBC oatmeal brain. Inflation is the increase in the money supply. All you have to do is show me one recession anywhere, anytime that did not result in the inflation of the money supply. Then show me anywhere, anytime, that an increase in the money supply did not result in prices rising.
You need to see an uptick caused by some moron trading at a bank to verify facts. I don't. I know the horse follows the cart. I know what really happens because I did the research.
I will tell you something else. The crony loan/money giveaway system we have is what will destroy faith in paper money money faster than printing it. The fact that select people get as much as they want, any time they want, will cause a wholesale rejection of our paper.
I said awhile back I thought PGH would fall below $5 before a run up and I still believe that. $4.77 is fine by me, I will just cost average and buy more. This is a pretty solid stock and the lower it gets the better for all the long term investors who want to buy in at the bottom range. Long term it will be very profitable. Nice.
Divy cut must have leaked cause this is crazy drop...probably 50% divy cut coming though which given the current price would still yield what 6%. Great buy below 6, don't know how far it will keep following but i'll go with this stock being above 6.5 sometime before year end and you collect 5%+ divy with the 10% gain...nice $ with a buy at this point. GULP...now watch it fall to the 4''s after my rant but than i'll just buy another round....of drinks.
"The dividend could be cut, sure. And when the price of the commodities that support the div rise once more, so will the dividend."
Once it is cut, it is cut. If prices go back up later, they won't raise the dividend. Since 2005, the dividend went from .25 to .225 to .17 to .1 to .07 to ? Commodity prices have not been all down since 2005.
Let's guess the dividend will be reduced to .05. From .25 in 2005 that is an 80% cut in dividends.