I bought some at 10.81 and have since doubled down to reap dependable dividend and lower my break even. I was happy with conference. Ditto that price will stay relatively range bound for about 12 months. Market looks forward 6 months, but if they are on schedule expect the stock to start the uptick same time one year from now (perhaps slow upticks with consolidation). My break even is now down to 5.92 and I have almost 3000 shares. I will likely keep buying in until my breakeven is about 5.25 and the hold for the duration. Tar Sands easy/economical to retrieve for PGH and will be more cost effective than deep water oil. more dependable supply than many other exporting countries. Oil will be sold in US or to world market, It will be sold and Lindberg will come online. Even if US uses all of its own oil, they still will need to import more than 50% at least until 2030!
Expect price to go to 4.75 min but trending solidly North (slowly) within 3 months.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Thanks for comments;
Was unable to listen to the whole event, but what I heard seemed clear and well developed.
Lindbergh does appear to be the area of greatest interest as it also was proven to hold the potential for highest consistent product yield. The development plan was also explained with graphs and charts, along with terms of prudent measured phases of $ cost development that would not put the whole company or divy at risk..
Getting product to market -- a subject often used on this board as a negative force was addressed in several ways..
The comment about personal investments seemed very honest..
If there are safer 9% + yields to be had -- this investor more than willing to hear the data..
Here is the rub
Over the 2013 and 2014 period capex, dividends and Lindbergh commitments exceed funds flow from operations by ~$0.9 billion dollars
– Debt-to-funds flow is currently approximately 2.3 times, post the Weyburn transaction
– Phase I of Lindbergh 12,500 bbpd will not add significant production or funds flow until Q4, 2014 or early 2015
Will be approching 3.0 X for debt to cash flow by 2014, note all this based on 90 wti and 3.50 gas
2013 Production Volumes Volume/day
Light oil (bbl/d) 28,300
Heavy oil (bbl/d) 7,400
NGLs (bbl/d) 9,800
Natural Gas (Mcf/d) 243,000
Boe/d equivalent* 86,000
So it looks like about 40,000 of oil a day with the other gas ( pro rated ngls )
Very impressive ops manager. Company going to full priority Lindbergh (thermal oil) but will take 2 years to grow. Sounds like a smart plan but IMO the stock will stay at this level for another year. Dividends will NOT be cut. No reason to sell at this price.