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Pengrowth Energy Corporation Message Board

  • this stock has so many false moves. would like to buy more and lower my cost average but i dont know if I can trust it. any thoughts?

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    • Mr gq
      Please more info: average share price, % of portfolio pgh makes up, risk tolerance, age

    • The current breakout from the cup & handle chart formation is a classic bull tell, as is jumping way above the simple 200MA on 4 times normal volume. In another couple days, the 50MA will cross over to be on top of the 200MA. This is referred to as the golden cross and is as bullish a long term technical indicator as it gets. Toss in upper band level oil prices and 9M shares on the short side looking to cut and run and its almost as good conditions as possible, not withstanding the nat gas over supply issues.

      These indicators are going to drive the bid in coming days and weeks as there are legions of investors that buy and sell based on these stock technicals. Basically, don't even think about selling until September.

      Sorry that some of you have held on for such a painful ride. As a hard and fast rule you must have sell rules that you follow, no matter what. Some pick a percentage like 10%, others follow key technicals like a stock price falling below the 200MA.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I am not sure what you mean by false moves. Most of PGH's stock moves over the last few years have been lower, much lower, and my portfolio which holds 38,142 shares reflects that fact. As far as being able to trust any stock, all you can do is your DD and then put your nickel down and hope for the best. There are no guarantees in the investment business.

      Having said that, you need to consider the recent news as most positive for the future of Pengrowth. Many investors, and especially the shorts, never thought management could raise the one billion needed to finance the first phase of the Lindberg heavy oil project. However, the company sold enough non-core assets to raise that one billion with lots of time to spare. All approvals have just been granted for the project and production has already started on a small scale. As a bonus the company announced that the Lindberg reserves have been increased by 51%. The shorts are getting squeezed today as a result of the improving prospects for Pengrowth. Lindberg is exceeding all expectations and the shorts now know the party is over.

      This quarter should be a good one with cash flow up by about 20% over last quarter due to higher realized oil prices. If your a value investor like myself, you probably appreciate the fact that Pengrowth's book value is now around $8.83 per share after the recent reserve increase figures were released. So each share is still selling for 42.64% less than book value. The now sustainable dividend of .48 cents is still yielding over 8.5%
      The growth picture is steadily improving and the stock is on the move.

      I like my position in Pengrowth even though it's been trying at times. I expect the stock price to continue to appreciate to at least book value over the next six months. If so, that move will turn my significant losses into a 27.3% capital gain.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I've got more than $14/share in it and in light of all the garbage that has gone on in Canada with these oil issue trusts, I don't trust them anymore--AT ALL! The situation with PGH seems a bit brighter today as far as the Lindbergh Field is concerned, and it's now likely the company will soon return to profitability, but they're boxed in with their own assets, not being able to sell enough domestically. When things go sour here in the US, it directly affects their 'foreign sales' to their biggest customer. I got in 9 years ago with PGH/ERF/PWE, but as bad as things have gotten with gluts in the NG markets, I've made the decision to hang on until I've at least recovered my principal and then move into something a little more stable. The "Ups" (2005, 2008, 2010) were fantastic, but the downturns (like this one--and 2006 and then 2009) have been utterly devastating to me. I've also been clobbered with more than $12,000 in non-recoverable/non-deductible source taxes for the privilege of taking my money out of their country. Once I bail from Canada--and I think it'll happen in the next year-- I won't be back.

      • 2 Replies to vinnierusso99
      • Hey Vinni - you sound really really stupid. Maybe the stock market is not for you. You should really think about putting everything into gold. I'm not sure if you know this (I'll try to use really really small words) but on most broker accounts you can put a sell price on your stock. Really, so lets say you buy xyz at $10 and to be on the safe side you tell your broker you want to sell it if it hits $9.50. Then you only lose $.50 and then you can buy it back and take the tax write off.

        Also, I don't know if you follow the news, but we are just coming out of the worst depression since 1929.

        I have majority of my assets in T-bills. When the markets were at the lows if I would have the sold T-Bills and bought an S&P Fund I could have doubled my money, instead I made 5%.. Would of, could of, should of. me blaiming anybody else for me not selling my T-bills and buying an S&P Fund is like you blaiming Canada for your failure not to act.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • I know how you feel, Vinnie-bought this in 06 for $24.00 a share before the fall-out, only 100 shares, been collecting the divi ever since but that`s not saying much, gotta say it is tempting to buy more but probably want, holding PWE also & waiting as You for a better time to sell & be done with them, no harm intended.

        Sentiment: Hold

    • The situation for PGH is now different in my opinion. It is a mistake to look at the past when material changes have occurred. I bought today and will buy more tomorrow.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

0.9116+0.0490(+5.68%)Dec 1 4:02 PMEST