I bought some more as well. Trying to guess the August distribution I calculated the following:
Big Spring refinery design production is 70,000 b/d, the number is design I used 10% less per day on average, 63,000 b/d. The Q2 K8 report shows the Big spring profitability per barrel to be $28.76. This profitability is the Crack Spread, much higher than the IEA of $10.70 average for the same period. I am lowering this crack spread by 20%, or $23.01 per barrel. There are 62.5 million outstanding units. My distribution number is $1.58. This number is with 90% max production for 68 days, the number of days between xdates, 20% less refinery margin per barrel. As far as I know Big Spring did not have an outage.
The driving season started early June with Memorial Day, I would equate this the good season for gasoline and diesel. It is also the good season for asphalt, the construction season.
ALDW should fetch a descent distribution, or I am wrong? Who is drinking “Coolade?”