It appears that an inverse head and shoulder is in the process of forming.
The neck line appears to be around $13. With a potential break of the neckline and the distance from the neck to the head (about $4) we should see AUY go to $16 - $17.
Just keep in mind the following:
1) Oct 12 deadline
2) Gold , Dollar & Oil prices
3) Retail numbers this week.
I believe Peter may have grown the company to an appropriate level where he may actually be able to take off his acquisition hat and become a miner. AUY doesn't need continued growing prices for gold and copper as the increasing output alone will generate strong cash flow. Having said that, should commodity prices grow as hoped / expected, our growth story will rival that of Agnico Eagle, which has performed admirably.
Peter is going to surprise some people. He has enough incredibly sound projects in the pipeline that he can grow organically. We are talking about capital requirements in the billions of dollars. I wouldn't be surprised if some jv partners are brought in, particularly for the new copper project in Argentina that may require $2B+.
If he does put the buyer's hat back on, hopefully he has a strong share price as some have suggested. I would suspect that going forward any acquisition he pursues is friendly from the outset. I can imagine that the fight with Meridian has been very tiring, no matter how good it must now feel.
"The Yamana share price weakness was a direct result of the 3-way merger and how it was handled. In brief, I considered it to be an aggressive gamble on significantly higher gold prices. Marrone was lucky (along with all the Yamana shareholders) that the POG has had a major breakout to the upside."
I fully admit Wall St. did not like this merger but the drops were far more the merger itself than the way it was handled (bidding higher on MDG). When Marrone announced that there would be no further bidding on MDG I took that with a grain of salt because there are many decisions that are altered in an attempted transaction such as this. If you think a significant rise in the POG was an aggressive gamble I wonder why you are in gold stocks? We're all banking on much greater gains than what we've seen up to now.
One of the things I look at is Marrone's timing of this merger, during the summer months when gold stocks are traditionally the lowest of the year. The Central Banks were selling gold so the POG was down and the PPT was hammering on it too. Do you honestly think this was not in Marrone's mind in making this deal?
With as many times as you say Marrone has been dishonest, including other peoples money, I don't see how you can hold this stock. Sure, I would like to see a share buy-back but if there isn't that's not a sell reason for me. Insider buying would be a definite plus but it isn't my money. To me once it starts, if it does, that will mean somethings in the wind. Could be wrong though.
I finally managed to hear the Denver speech by Marrone. He was very upbeat about the combined company and very positive about the prospects going forward. He made some good PR statements about shareholder value with comments which seem to indicate he wanted a higher share price. He did state that he was a shareholder so he's not playing totally with OPM.
Believe me, I don't want to be a Debbie Downer, but ever since owning AUY I look at this message board (though this is only my second post) and whenever it goes up everyone talks like it will keep going up. Why should I think that this time is any different? Back in early 2007 when it was $13-$15 everyone thought it would keep going. Believe me, I hope it will go up because I am actually still down from when I purchased. Thanks...(a novice investor if you couldn't already tell)
"Why should I think that this time is any different? "
I am new to AUY (backdoored it this moring through NTO - on purpose) but not new to investing.
So, I'll tell you why I now have a postion in AUY and maybe this will give you some insight (maybe not).
No matter what the current administation postulates, we are in a the beginning of a recession. This is when old ladies start hiding their money in buried coffee cans or buy gold to bury for safe keeping.
Back in the 80's when the economy receded, gold was king. History does repeat itself and IMHO we are about to see it, first hand.
Personally, I don't want to keep ingots or bars around -- I prefer the source of the product instead.
If you do a bit of historical analysis (the economy was just fine back in the 80's according to that admin) you may see where this opinion comes to light.
Believe me, I do my research before I jump -- but that doesn't mean you should take it as gospel. Take a look at where we are (the economy) and what may be profitable UNDER that economy.
Best of luck to you.
Here's another catalyst for this:
Not only is the neckline around $13, but the 200 SMA is also just below the $13. Just more technical confirmation.
Meanining, if it does break $13 with volume, you have a better chance of this baby going higher!
I personally think you are low. Thanks to DHOYAS link to the Denver gold presentation, I admit , If Marrone was passing Kool-aid around I would have had seconds. The presentation was awesome and even Marrone said at the end that he was nervous just thinking about how well this new venture was going to do.He is projecting 2.2 million ounce production by 09,and he goes on to state that in the past every projection made had been very conservative. 2.2 million puts us in the Goldcorp league and I believe that $30 will be seen in short order if gold cracks through the $800 hurdle.
Listen to the presentation and tell me how it struck you?
I listened to the call and viewed the presentation (thanks to IR's quick response to my request).
Here's the upcoming sequence, IMO:
1st - The POS will end the week just above $12.50
2nd - On Merger Monday, we will be told that >50% MDG shares were tendered.
3rd - Gold gaps up again, this time to $800.
4th - Earnings Estimates get revised higher, price targets and rating raised.
5th - POS for Yamana has several gaps up to close out the year at $20.
As far as 2008, we're looking at a $30 stock and if gold continues to $1,000 as many believe...watchout!