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Yamana Gold, Inc. Message Board

  • curiousonemich curiousonemich Jan 4, 2008 5:08 PM Flag

    AUY's Good Week -- A Harbinger?

    AUY obviously had a very good week. The key question is whether share price appreciation will continue. It should based on:
    -- declines in the value of the $ vs. foreign currencies
    -- likely Fed easing based on weak economic stats such as ISM index and monthly payroll report
    -- likely Fed easing due to the excessive level of fed funds rate (i.e 4.25> yield on 10-year T-note > 2-year T-note)
    -- end of merger-related uncertainty for AUY
    -- an ongoing credit crisis. It seems to me that the outrageously high borrowing rates that the Citgroups of the world are payring is symbolic of a troubled banking system. This environment should be conducive to gold price appreciation.
    -- geopolitical tensions where terrorism continues to exist.

    The wild card here seems to be the Fed. An emergency rate cut may be in the near future. I would prefer this approach rather than Bush's fiscal stimulus since it is easier to fine-tune monetary policy.

    I welcome comments.

    P.S. Hats off to scratchy for his professional comments in a challenging week for the techniclly-focused gurus.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • "P.S. - Not that it matters, but you've stooped-down to a liar level now by saying that I invest in "financials", which I do not. Keep twisting words... maybe you'll have a future as a Fiction Writer. I'm not replying to you any further.'

      Not only am I a liar, and psychotic, but delusional as well. Not only do I not realize that I said you "invest in "financials", I can't even perceive where it was that I said it. If I could only keep my facts straight as good as you, then maybe you would grace me with your wisdom once more.

      BTW- I'm sure that you and your president are quite correct in saying that the economy will be fine, all we are experiencing now is just a little bump in the road.

      I hope all your teeth have cavities, and don't forget abscess makes the heart grow fonder. - Morrie Ryskind,


    • No, No.. Citibank, Bear Stearns?

      Yes, yes... Exxon, Mobil, VLO, Haliburton, other multinationals that would take the last morsel of food from your kids mouth.

    • New Jersey has the highest college graduation rate in the country, and the highest taxes. At least you know your children will have the opportunity to receive a quality education.

    • "The talk of full-blown recession is just a "short" or someone holding nothing but gold bullion...interested in promoting a doomsday scenario to scare retail investors into selling equities or buying gold bullion.'

      Wow! You really nailed me pal. I should have guessed that I couldn't fool someone as astute as you about my real intentions. I just figured if I voiced an negative view point about the economy on the Yamana board that gold's worldwide price would suddenly pop up at least 10% so I could sell my gold for a small profit and buy some really fine paper promises.

      but now that you've revealed my alternative motives I guess the game is up and I might as well buy some Citicorp or Bears Stearns so I can reap those huge dividends just like you. I'm sure that the other board members are as impressed with your insight as I am. LOL

      BTW- you forgot to explain what a "full blown recession" was. I'm sure we'd would ALL like to find out.


    • <Yes, I agree. Many US, European and other country's subsidiaries operate from PRC (Mainland China) benefit from lower wages and increased profits. To myself and most capitalists, "profits" are a good thing. Extra profits fund expansions, dividends and further economic growth.>

      I see no reason for US troops to die protecting US companies that have abandoned US labor for low wages/profits and I see no reason for the US govt. to pander to these cos. any longer. Henry Ford understood the relationship between a decent wage and the ability to buy his products; GM making profit on its $6 billion investment China in the early 2000s has no relationship to the overwhelming majority of Americans.

    • ... the school budget in my town in NJ is about $100M for 8000 kids. Of that, only about $3M is for all extra culicular activities, including clubs, band, sports. Sports and sports fields is a tiny fraction of the budget."

      First of all in your case, if the figures given are accurate, seems to be at quite a variance to the country as a whole. You certainly must realize that for every school district with parents wealthy enough to donate the land, purchase an artificial playing field, and compensate for the loss in property tax revenue, there must be hundreds of poorer communities who cannot do so. I am very happy for you and the children fortunate enough to have such privilege, but at the same time I sincerely believe that your experience is am exception to the rule. You will recall that this discussion was about national school expenses and not offered as a generalization applicable to each and every school district in the country.

      I was wondering if that budget was for the whole school district rather than for just one secondary school? Obviously if you include the costs for all the salaries and services at the elementary level, it would dramatically reduce the percentage spent on sports at the secondry level.

      "The state champion ship band holds bake sales for their instruments and uniforms. etc, etc."

      I realize that fund raising activities are quite common, but I seriously doubt most communities can support a marching band without some tax support for the additional costs. Having spent many years on a school budget committee in a lower-middle class community I can assure you that we certainly weren't so lavishly blessed. My point was not that athletics should not receive public support, even though my daughter's dance training, costumes, and travel expenses to competition was bourne entirely by me and my family, but that those who would complain about the cost of public education in general should at least establish some set of priorities before calling for a broad reduction in public financing. IMO if we can build new schools in Iraq, but can't afford to continue to offer all the programs now available, then let's take a hard, CLOSE look at how the money is being spent and eliminate those programs that are least essential in preparing our children for the future.

      BTW- Up to a disabling car accident a few years ago, I have been a life-long athlete. I lettered in both high school football and baseball, due to the need to support myself through college I had to decline an invitation to walk-on the University football team, later I played competitive amateur tennis for many years. I am not so much anti-athletics as I am pro-academics, and for that I offer no apology. As far as the notion that if we reduced educational support we would have smarter kids, I would suggest that represented just another example of a failure in our education system.


    • bogfit,

      the school budget in my town in NJ is about $100M for 8000 kids. Of that, only about $3M is for all extra culicular activities, including clubs, band, sports. Sports and sports fields is a tiny fraction of the budget.

      Parents donated an artificial field for the football team which no longer has to be lined, cut or watered. The state champion ship band holds bake sales for their instruments and uniforms. etc, etc.

      Some complain, not enough is spent on sports.

      I think 95% of the kids graduate from high school which is way above the national avg. Not all public schools suck. My kids are doing stuff in the elementary grades that I did in high school.

    • Comments -

      "... share price appreciation will continue ... based on: declines in the value of the $ vs. foreign currencies."

      First - IMO POG will detach from the dollar as the global recession beginning this year drives the value of all major currencies downward in relationship to gold.

      Second - IMO it is a mistake to assume that there is ANY solution to our economic and financial problems. The root cause of the crisis is that ALL mortgages, not just sub-prime, issued in 2005 -2006 in the hottest RE markets include at least a 25% speculative bubble that has since disappeared. Since many of these loans were granted without adequate investment by the borrower, these mortgages are not unlike the over-leveraging of bonds by the major banks and funds. Additionally, few today are claiming any more faith in derivative counter party's ability to meet credit/interest swap obigations, than for the mortgage insurers to meet their contratual obligations. This is why the deterioration of the credit markets as well as the loss of corporate income and dividends, rising unemployment, and the resulting decline in stock market PPS, will continue for months if not years into the future.

      If this is recession mongering then so be it, but IMO the equity portfolios of those who ignore or dismiss the obvious indicators of a economic downturn of crisis proportions, will indeed reap the Whirlwind and suffer substantial losses.


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