Long term the Euro is in a descending triangle pattern, which is bullish for the dollar, from a chart perspective. Both AU and AUY went down yesterday. That makes sense. But AU and the USD went down. That didn’t make any sense. But at this writing AU is up strongly in Asia. If the past is any guide when AU hits New York, and to a lesser extent in the UK, AU will be hit with selling pressure from paper contracts. It’s the current version of the Asian term, “paper tiger”.
It seems that China takes every opportunity to acquire more AU at lower prices, and then when markets reach the UK, and especially New York, there is a surge in AU into about mid-day. Then the price gets taken suddenly downwards as the manipulators create a bunch of bag-holders by unloading their early buys at market open. We are being fleeced by Western interests to the advantage of those in Asia. There seems to be a definite downward bias over time for AU and by implication AUY, but the day-to-day trading is up one day and down the next. prying more and more from unwary Westerners. The thing is that taking advantage of these swings is not possible for most unless it is done electronically. Otherwise a long term strategy is the only winning one, which currently means playing a waiting game for even better prices to occur. Only insiders can take advantage of daily swings (Goldman-Sachs, et al). What needs to be kept in mind is that fiat money, long term, is a loser.
It does seem that central banks have been acquiring more AU so we are near a bottom as it is unlikely that they will manipulate prices much lower, thus diminishing the value of their holdings. But you never know, as the Gordon Brown example in the UK near the turn of the century shows. Stupid acts by stupid people in power do occur, and stupidity generally is unpredictable. But those who recognized Brown’s stupidity are a lot wealthier today.
Well, the way it's going today, it seems like $14.87 will be seen again, soon. IMHO, a bit oversold. Checking out kitco today, gold is down due to trading and as I write this I saw $15.08 for AUY which is pretty low for the day and it's down about 1.25% since the open while GLD is down about -0.17% since today's open. As for long term, the US$ seems like it's getting more and more attractive which can bring the POG right back under $1600. Hang in there and let's see what happens.