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Electronic Arts Inc. (ERTS) Message Board

  • drac1us drac1us Mar 12, 2002 7:01 PM Flag

    Technicals

    Dow and SPX made hanging man candlesticks. Comp gapped down, made a spinning top and a potential island reversal. NYSE volume was on the high side, Nasdaq volume was low.

    NYSE 5 day arms 4.28 - bearish
    Nas 5 day arms 6.71 - neutral

    Vix 21.31 - bearish
    VXN 42.71 - bearish

    Tick +885 - bearish

    put/call .65 - neutral

    Candles on Dow and SPX are bearish. The NYSE 5 day arms is bearish, we had another high uptick today and Vix hit a new low. All this suggests that any upside is limited. That being said, the pattern is still basically sideways so a break to the upside is always possible. Comp candle in inconclusive. A gap up tomorrow would make a morning star which is bullish but I think it is unlikely that we will take out Monday's high at 1946. Downside targets for Comp are 1850, 1821, 1791

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    • drac:

      How are you? What is your opinion about about the bearish VIX and VXN? Thanks.

    • >>> ERTS is the #1 third-party software publisher in the world. They have been for years, they will be for years. Sounds nice doesn't it? Fine, put it on your annual report if you want, but bottom line it's a side effect of their success, not the reason behind their success. <<<

      Actually the biggest reason for ERTS success is EA Sports. That has afforded them the cash reserves to acquire their expensive studios like Maxis (Sims) and Westwood (C&C), and their expensive licenses like Potter and Bond.

      >>> I thought online was dead Rab? <<<

      It only seems that way because of EA.COM's massive failure. UO, Sony Online and Blizzard are all doing fine. The reason is the content. As I mentioned before EA cannot innovate and that's why their content is weak and why Majestic and MCO were doomed from the start. We'll probably never know for sure how much Majestic cost but if it was cheaper than MGS2 (rumored $25m dev. plus $10m marketing) then I'd be very surprised. It's probably the most expensive video game failure EVER.

      >>> Because Sega has HOW MANY internally developed fully owned IP console titles in the pipeline? <<<

      I don't know the exact number but if they have 20 such titles that's about 19 more than EA.

      >>> How much blood can they squeeze out of that turnip called GTA? <<<

      As much as ATVI squeezed out of Tony Hawks? As much as EA squeezed out of the Sims?

      :-)

    • > TTWO doesn't have to be #1 to maintain a market cap 1/10th the size of EA and a P/E valuation less than 1/3rd.

      Based on what opinion? Does TTWO really know what they are going to earn next year? They're too busy cooking the books in the back room, maybe you can visit them in jail next year and see what they think then.

      I know whatever ERTS is saying they are going to make next year, it's going to come in higher than that. Believe me. So, when EA makes $2.50 or even $3.00/share next year, how will the $60/share price look then?

      > The fact that they're competing and (currently) winning is a huge achievement which means they're exceeding expectations. ERTS is not currently #1 which means they're not meeting the expectations of a leader, and none of their own games have been #1 in the console charts since October.

      Rab, all that matters is how much they make quarter over quarter, year over year. Weekly, Monthly, semi-annually or even annually sales charts don't mean dick. Is the company making what they said they'd make? Yes. Are they well positioned to meet or exceed earnings expectations in the future? Hell yes. That's it, end of story. ERTS is the #1 third-party software publisher in the world. They have been for years, they will be for years. Sounds nice doesn't it? Fine, put it on your annual report if you want, but bottom line it's a side effect of their success, not the reason behind their success.

      > They also haven't had an internally developed fully owned IP console title since... how many years must we go back? Do we have to go all the way back to the Sega MasterSystem? Can a leader last forever without innovation?

      Didn't you just answer your own question? (Yes!)

      > Well that's never been the case in any other industry and that's why SEGA will take the #1 position.

      Because Sega has HOW MANY internally developed fully owned IP console titles in the pipeline?

      > Yes future year over year comparisons may be difficult for TTWO but also they may not be because GTA4 with online could be incredibly massive, and GTA3 PC has multiplayer features and should do very well.

      Damned right year over year comparisons are going to kill TTWO. How much blood can they squeeze out of that turnip called GTA? ONE GAME? C'mon, really. And why will GTA4 online (whenever that comes out....2003...2004?) do any better than Motor City Online? I thought online was dead Rab?

      > And a hit franchise helped another smaller company ATVI to a 600% rise in 2 years. How much has ERTS gone up in 2 years? Oh, they're flat, that's right. No gains.

      We'll see how long that lasts.

      Oh, and you can make as much fun as you want about EA.com (which is 99% of the reason why ERTS hasn't gone anywhere in the past 2 years), they deserve anything/everything you have to say about them! :)

    • P.S. Of course I meant, "They also haven't had an internally developed fully owned IP ***number one*** console title since..."

    • "piss ant"? "Take-a-Hike"? Sounds like you're letting emotions into your stock picking Dayz. TTWO doesn't have to be #1 to maintain a market cap 1/10th the size of EA and a P/E valuation less than 1/3rd. The fact that they're competing and (currently) winning is a huge achievement which means they're exceeding expectations. ERTS is not currently #1 which means they're not meeting the expectations of a leader, and none of their own games have been #1 in the console charts since October. They also haven't had an internally developed fully owned IP console title since... how many years must we go back? Do we have to go all the way back to the Sega MasterSystem? Can a leader last forever without innovation? Well that's never been the case in any other industry and that's why SEGA will take the #1 position. But obviously we'll have to agree to disagree on ERTS upside from here since you're unconcerned with valuations. The price of a good company should go up forever in your opinion, just because. "Wooo, ERTS is taking back #1 from a tiny piss-ant publisher, get on the train to $85, choo-choo!!!", LOL.

      Yes future year over year comparisons may be difficult for TTWO but also they may not be because GTA4 with online could be incredibly massive, and GTA3 PC has multiplayer features and should do very well. And a hit franchise helped another smaller company ATVI to a 600% rise in 2 years. How much has ERTS gone up in 2 years? Oh, they're flat, that's right. No gains.

      Re cash in the bank ironically that led to EA's biggest downfall in the last few years. "Hey John we have a ton of cash. What do you say we try this online thing now? It sounds really cool. Here's a check book all pre-signed for you, go have fun.".

    • Thanks Drac. One question for you: what does the UTL Oscillator tell you as far as technicals? I hear people talking about the oscillator making a negative divergence. Is this what they are referring to and could it be applied to individual stocks as opposed to indices? Thanks again.

    • Thanks Drac! I've been waiting for hours for your post.

      I don't know if Yahoo AH quote is accurate or not but here's the last trade.

      5:11pm 60.97 +1.03 +1.72%
      Lookin' good!

 
EA
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