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Electronic Arts Inc. (ERTS) Message Board

  • steelheart4now steelheart4now Mar 30, 2002 3:56 AM Flag

    invest in the best baseball gameASB2003

    That's right. AKLm is kicking the pants off of triple play per reviews and sales alike. Don't fight the trend. ERTS console games are becoming less and less reliable. The competion is closing the gap quickly. Agent under fire is a far cry from the golden eye game. With such a high p/e as ERTS has wouldn't it be wise to pull some profits off the table and invest in the lean hungery competition. AKLM looks like the best risk/reward ration in this sector. It is getting ready to report an increase of earnings of +500% this qrt compared to year ago figures. Can ERTS do that? Do yourselves a favor and check out AKLM it has turned the corner and is coming after the big boys like ERTS and ATVI.

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    • i like ERTS, but not at this price. Almost all the game companies posted huge gains heading into E3 last year, except ERTS. At this time last year it was trading at around 60.

    • market is down due to psft.

      you complain erts is overvalued, high p/e and now you say it has trouble carrying its own weight. make up your mind!

      still, its a good buying opportunity for me. :)

    • >>> did you notice that ttwo rode up 50% in 2001 then down 50% in october 2001? geez, it cant even carry its own weight on an up day like today <<<

      Looks like ERTS is the one having trouble carrying it's own huge weight...

      http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/charts/chartdl.asp?Symbol=ERTS&ShowChtBt=Re
      fresh+Chart&DateRangeForm=1&CP=0&PT=0&C5=1&C6=&C7=1&C8=&C9=0&ComparisonsForm=1&C
      E=0&CompSyms=ttwo&DisplayForm=1&D7=&D6=&D3=0

    • Oh I forgot another big reason TTWO could appreciate this year...Short Interest is very large at over 10 million shares. I had other points, but they escape me at the moment.

      <<Wall Street has no confidence in TTWO? Over 100% of the float is owned by institutions and most firms covering TTWO have a buy rating. Hedge funds have no confidence in TTWO, but they've been wrong all year.

      TTWO has a lot of upside left in it. It's forward P/E is ridiculously low and they have the potential for some major news that is not priced in...
      -GTA3 X-Box
      -Duke Nukem released this year
      -Clearing by the SEC
      -Raising guidance - pushed back Mafia and GTA3 PC meaning they're very confident in their quarter's numbers
      -GTA3 PC (20% of the PC sales would be big and I think they'll do that)

      I sold TTWO around 60 last year and bought TTWO at 11 on the dip day earlier this year. I haven't looked back since. TTWO hasn't done much over the last few weeks, but there has been little news.

      I like ERTS, but it's more of a safe portfolio play. I think it can appreciate 20%, but their high P/E worries especially when I'm not sure they'll be able to sustain the level of market share they had last year. Sega and Activision will be very big around Christmas time and TTWO will also be strong based on GTA:Vice alone. >>

    • By the way, whos_kidding_whom what's your target for ERTS this year? The reason I favor other gaming stocks is because I see that its upside is more limited than other gaming companies. I do think it's a relatively safe play, but I don't see a huge upside at this price either.

    • <<did you notice that ttwo rode up 50% in 2001 then down 50% in october 2001? geez, it cant even carry its own weight on an up day like today. all the good news has been priced into the stock and wall street has no confidence in company maangement.>>

      Wall Street has no confidence in TTWO? Over 100% of the float is owned by institutions and most firms covering TTWO have a buy rating. Hedge funds have no confidence in TTWO, but they've been wrong all year.

      TTWO has a lot of upside left in it. It's forward P/E is ridiculously low and they have the potential for some major news that is not priced in...
      -GTA3 X-Box
      -Duke Nukem released this year
      -Clearing by the SEC
      -Raising guidance - pushed back Mafia and GTA3 PC meaning they're very confident in their quarter's numbers
      -GTA3 PC (20% of the PC sales would be big and I think they'll do that)

      I sold TTWO around 60 last year and bought TTWO at 11 on the dip day earlier this year. I haven't looked back since. TTWO hasn't done much over the last few weeks, but there has been little news.

      I like ERTS, but it's more of a safe portfolio play. I think it can appreciate 20%, but their high P/E worries especially when I'm not sure they'll be able to sustain the level of market share they had last year. Sega and Activision will be very big around Christmas time and TTWO will also be strong based on GTA:Vice alone.

    • i've been buying last week and again today at 59.50. i'll buy more if it goes below 58-57

      did you notice that ttwo rode up 50% in 2001 then down 50% in october 2001? geez, it cant even carry its own weight on an up day like today. all the good news has been priced into the stock and wall street has no confidence in company maangement.

    • Mmm, how about this?

      http://finance.yahoo.com/q?d=c&c=erts&k=c1&t=1y&s=ttwo&a=v&p=s&l=on&z=m&q=l&y=on

      And TTWO is still trading at a forward P/E about 1/4 that of ERTS. You rate this a Strong Buy - are you buying at this price or recommending friends to buy it?

    • hummm, you sound a little bitter. can it be because of this?

      http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=erts+ttwo&d=v1

    • <<<in fact perhaps the pie isn't growing as fast as expected given the question marks over whether XBox can meet it's shipment goals and GameCube's poor performance in Japan.>>>

      This is good for EA, they want the PS2 to dominate. Which is what is happening. The pie is growing faster then expected, just more going to sony, not xbox. EA has a great relationship with sony.

      <<<any non-EA successful sports products eat directly into EA's share, and that should hurt their revenue and their stock price because that loss of market *is not* priced into the stock>>>

      EA does not assume they will have 100% of the sports market. They are the leader and strong competition does hurt sales. The instaled base of the PS2 is growing fast enough to support two sports game producers. Look at it this way. This past holiday there was around 6-7 million PS2's in the US market and EA had 55-70 % of the sports market. By next December there will be 14-15 million PS2's(I am assuming a price drop to 199). EA will still be able to hold 45-60 % of the sports market. EA knew it would lose share, because every other company was so slow off the blocks EA had a unrealistic lead.

      <<<when since last October has EA had over 20% share? In fact how often has it been over 15%>>>

      EA had well over 20% market share on the PS2 in the december quarter. I can't find my notes from the CC, but I think I remember 26%.
      I don't want to repeat myself, but Feb-Sep dosen't matter when it comes to market share. Do you really think EA will have less then 20% share of the PS2 market this December quarter(Harry potter & Lord of the Rings)?

      <<<I've no idea how many users Sims Online can attract but to base your expectations on a product outselling the previous best ever selling product by a factor of 2-4 times is exactly what I mean about this stock being priced for perfection>>>

      Sims has such a broad following, unlike OU. They have sold 7 million copies of the original, and over 7 million copies of the expansions. It is not outragous to think 1/7 of these people may try the Sims Online. It is actually conservitive. But like I said EA only has to sign up 600,000 more peopel for EA.com to break even.

      <<<Remember Dec '99? The stock was priced for pefection then and there was an earnings warning about N64 sales slowing down and the stock tanked 33% in minutes. >>>

      Everyone can see this is a much different industry now, compared to 99(a tough transition year). What is this bad news that could make EA tank. Sony stoping prodution of the PS2? AKLM surging to 50% market share with sales of Ecco the dolphin? What are all these negatives? EA has pushed back shipment on many tilte(need for speed, medal of honor, freekstyle) nothing has happend. EA knows they will beat Q1 and Q2 earnings. They are taking the time to perfect games and wate for an increase in the installed base along with hardware price drops(already happened over seas). EA's outlook is as strong as ever.
      I am getting tired of listing these, but I don't think it is getting through to you guys.
      Madden, SSX, Harry Potter, Sims, Medal of Honor, Sim City, Lord of the Rings, Bond, Final Fantasy,command & conquer, FIFA world cup, NCCA footbal, Tiger woods, NHL, Ultima Online, Pogo, knockout kings, NBA street, Need for Speed, Nascar thunder, triple play, Sims Hot Date, Sims House party, Sims Livin Large, sims vacation, Sims Online, Sims 2, F1 racing, 1503 AD, sled storm, freekstyle, NBA Live,....

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