It doesn't look like a hugh downtick here will materialize without breaking 1544. Them damn Gold stocks are really frustrating me.....can't seem to be able to catch a decent pullback......
1. ''It could just be a one-day-wonder pop''
-->> Disagree. The largest obstacle, fundamentally, for Nasdaq in May is CSCO's earnings. If you check the earnings calendar, there are many more positive factors ahead: AMAT's, DELL's, BRCD's, NTAP's and ERTS' earnings releases. One-day-wonder occurs when the market is still in a downtrend, but doesn't when the market is in a consolidation stage.
2. ''I'm still long but I have a reasonable target and then I'm out. ''
-->> Agree. A disciplined trader always wins in any kind of markets.
3. ''We need a downtick.''
-->> Agree. But the huge downtick will not happen in May because there is no fundamental factor negative enough to make it happen. May will be the month of consolidation while June will be the month for the capitulation.
My real opinion is that we go up a bit and then retest these lows or make lower lows. If something in tomorrow's action makes me change my mind I'll let you know. Major bottoms are generally retested.
We probably go lower. I guess it depends on CSCO. The market is so oversold right now that any bit of good news could send it up like a rocket. But markets can also crash from oversold. If they do, they usually don't stay down very long. Soooo. I think we have a rally coming. Just don't know when.
Well, I'm sitting here hoping for a short squeeze but it's looking less and less likely. So, it doesn't matter. Maybe we get our downtick instead. Either would be ok. As long as we close positive, candles will be bullish haramis so we could see more follow through to the upside tomorrow.