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Electronic Arts Inc. (ERTS) Message Board

  • dayz_n_confzd dayz_n_confzd Jul 12, 2002 10:34 AM Flag

    bullkiller . . .

    Hope you have set your stop limits . . .

    I can't thank the shorts enough. ERTS to the moon!

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    • >I still think there's consolidation in this sector, the big 3 ERTS, ATVI and THQI, and
      >Sega will continue to do well and grow/maintain their market shares, at the
      >expense of the rest.

      You *really* need to look at the NPD sales data . . . trading on inaccurate information is a *really* bad idea.

    • Maybe you should pose all those questions to your EA friend.

      I still think there's consolidation in this sector, the big 3 ERTS, ATVI and THQI, and Sega will continue to do well and grow/maintain their market shares, at the expense of the rest. No one says it will be easy, least of all in this business environment.

    • <<<The institutions will sell when the company gives them a reason to sell, like a slowing in video games sales and revenue growths.>>>

      How many more companies can EA buy? They are not growing at all. The Christmas with new consoles was last year. There are tons games for each system, and let's face it, EA has released some real poopers as of recent.

      EA is a software company. I like to compare it to Adobe, another leader of leader of its own market. Once you have Photoshop, Acrobat, Pagemaker, Framemaker, Premeire etc...you don't need to go off an up date every year for the latest version. My Photoshop 4 works just as good as my Photoshop 7. Same thing with EA. People are tired of buyin ght esame game re-hashed year after year, or even a few times a year like their motorcycle game that uses the same game engine as their snowmobile game, which uses their snowboarding's game engine. Their poop is starting to stink.

      Their only ace in the hole left to sell stocks with is their on-line Madden that is coming out in August. Big deal. Sega is cutting into their sports market whether they want to believe it or not. EA has done nothing but fail with their online gaming. Sega had consoles running online 2 years ago. That experience will pay off. Right now Sega NBA2K2 is already the dominant basketball franchise game and accepted by videogamers. Sega NFL2K3 will take that postion for the football category as well. The Madden 2002 on PS2 couldn't even compare with the Sega NFL2K1. EA products just flat out suck.

      You can't sell crap and expect to be rewarded for it. Back to my main point, there is no one left for EA to buy up. They have already bought the creative companies out there. Who is left to buy to increase their sales?

      I am sorry, but games like the Sim's and their stupid online/add on packs are not going to be enough to keep your 800 pound gorilla from drowning.

    • >>That is a good observation, but institutions sell as well. One thing you are right about is that the institutions control and run this stock and no one is doing anything drastic to the others. <<

      The institutions will sell when the company gives them a reason to sell, like a slowing in video games sales and revenue growths. So far, I haven't seen any compelling reason to sell, other than profit taking which they do. Take a look at institutional holdings of other gamers in this sector like ATVI and THQI. Skip the dog TTWO.

    • <<<I agree that when the economy recovers, this gorilla will be in a very strong position to lead the recovery.>>>

      Believe me, EA is not going to lead the US markets out of the slump they are in. What is more likely to happen is when the markets start to recover, fund manangers will sell this and re-invest their money in other securities that have been oversold and are on their way back up.

      <<Do you think EA's planning a stocksplit?>>

      To be honest, I do think they will split. They will probably announce it when they give their earings. I have heard people talking about it. There would be a nice pop, but that would be the final nail in the coffin if they did split.

    • >>>>Regarding pissing matches, I usually like to insult people, but I like this board better than most. If it goes down, I will try not to rub it in too much, although I know longs take pleasure seeing me get burned up.

      I like this board too. I hear that Spec likes to rub it.

    • >> Out of the last 30 minutes there have been 12 mintues that have traded less than 900 shares per minute. About an hour ago, they traded ZERO shares for the entire minute. <

      Fund managers rarely make their moves in the middle of the day. And I hear they don't buy at the open. Save the action during the last hour.

      The S&P 500 induction could be a surprise to them so it's interesting to watch how it'll shake out with the mid-caps selling to the big cappers. Drac says and I agree that when the economy recovers, this gorilla will be in a very strong position to lead the recovery.

      It's nice to know that your EA friend is still confident enough to hold on to all his shares . . .

      Do you think EA's planning a stocksplit?

    • <<<The stock has been skirting the all-time highs despite the 5-year low in the Nas so why do you think the longs haven't yet a reason to sell? And why do you think the longs are underwater with this stock?>>>

      I never said longs were underwater as of yet. However if they ever have a reason to sell and the stock hits the low 50's, it will be 9:1 ratio of sell to buy.

      <<<Based on my calculations, there are 18.1M shares remaining for day traders, and 10.3M shares were shorted last month. This is hardly considered 10% short.>>>

      That is a good observation, but institutions sell as well. One thing you are right about is that the institutions control and run this stock and no one is doing anything drastic to the others.

      This stock can go up even though there are no buyers. The MMs simply do not sell any shares.

      Out of the last 30 minutes there have been 12 mintues that have traded less than 900 shares per minute. About an hour ago, they traded ZERO shares for the entire minute. That is just their style. When they see that there are no buyers, they stop selling until a buyer arrives. After the new buyer arrives, they begin selling again. Their methods although manipulative and effective for moving the stock up are not healthy. When the sell off comes, this stock will be hit hard.

      Even though it doesn't look like it isn't going there, I would be VERY surprised if they didn't shake out the last of the shorts and burn them to $65 today. We will have to wait and see.

      Regarding pissing matches, I usually like to insult people, but I like this board better than most. If it goes down, I will try not to rub it in too much, although I know longs take pleasure seeing me get burned up.

      I have a buddy who worked for EA and still has all of his shares from the past 5 years or so. He is in love witht he stock and won't book a profit on it. It is kind of like the one guy who went from $27 million to $250,000. You have to take a profit sometime. I think the majority of the hangups are caused by the "what do I do next syndrome." Staying in a position is convenient. Finding a new one is tough. Either way this stock goes. I will be here for a long time.

    • >> 10% short is nothing, especially when 90% is long and underwater. Although the longs are not hurting, they have yet to have a reason to sell. Wait until they do and I would be a lot more worried about the 90% than the 10%. <<<<

      'xcuse me but your logic escapes me. The stock has been skirting the all-time highs despite the 5-year low in the Nas so why do you think the longs haven't yet a reason to sell? And why do you think the longs are underwater with this stock?

      Your math escapes me also.

      There are 98.6M shares in the float and 145.1M shares outstanding, of which institutions have locked up 91%, or 127M shares.

      http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/holdings.asp?symbol=ERTS`&selected=ERTS

      Based on my calculations, there are 18.1M shares remaining for day traders, and 10.3M shares were shorted last month. This is hardly considered 10% short.

      I imagine that a portion of these shorts were on the hedgies' side but the overwhelming majority of shareholders are still large institutions.

      If this is a pissing match, you should see some of the stuff I get in my fan mail on the ohter board. ;-)

    • <<<most experienced traders do not short a stock that already has too many shorts>>>

      10% short is nothing, especially when 90% is long and underwater. Although the longs are not hurting, they have yet to have a reason to sell. Wait until they do and I would be a lot more worried about the 90% than the 10%.

      I guess the 8 million shares traded the other day on the S&P news must of just been longs and the 16 million shares traded over a four day period starting on 6/27/02 must have just been longs buying at the 52 week high as well.

      Well, there is no sense getting in a pissing match over it. We will see in a month or so.

      Until then, good luck.

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