I've a ton of awful qualities, but welshing is not one of them, so: Congrats!!!
As per our little bet, I owe you one $50 video game. Drop me a line, firstname.lastname@example.org, with a title (if you've got a heart and any taste, you'll choose a TTWO game) and an address and I'll Amazon your winnings to you. I'm going to take a holiday shortly, so the sooner I hear from you the better.
Madden will certainly sell more on brand strength, but don't count out Sega. I'll wait for the reviews before making any judgment. Brand is good, but since these are largely $50 (not cheap) purchases made by adult males (18 to 35), many of them will do their homework and read the reviews. If Sega gets good reviews, they'll take a bite out of ERTS' marketshare . . . and ERTS market share in the football market has virtually no where to go but down or sideways. (AKLM and Sony will be competing too . . . actually I'm not even sure . . . NFL QBC was a no show @ E3.)