I assume that you are not as stupid as your posts portray you to be. I have to blame your errors in math and reasoning due to the fact that you are in denial.
It happens all of the time. The things we care about and love, skew our perceptions and blind us sometimes. I don't take offense to your miscalculations. The facts have spoken, and now they need to be dealt with. How you deal with them is your own problem.
The chink in ERTS' armor has been exposed. We have a weakness and we know where it is. Hopefully at the next earning's call, an analyst some where out there will have enough resolve to address my findings to the ERTS executives, and ask for an explanation.
Alrighty then, I still think this (even IF true) is un-important to all but you...have you had anybody on this board agree with you on this? There are a lot of shorts on the board, seems like they'd be backing you up. No?
Okay, so even IF this were important, before you go much further, I would verify your numbers. I know you don't know how many Madden's have sold and using 1Million is just silly, so that would be the number you should find out first. Then, I'd check last and this year's console #'s installed base, you seem at least close on those and I don't have any numbers to dispute them, there is this link:
These are just forecast numbers and they are year-end numbers which are slightly different than what you're up to, but may help.
Good luck chasing that red herring!
Like another person has said earlier today:
"Stop the mud slinging."
This was my first post on the ERTS message board:
It was posted on 7/11/02. I began my short position at the close that day ($63). A week later I called the bottom and raked in a nice 12+ % gain and told people to accumulate:
Later on 7/26/02 I correctly called ERTS as it closed at $58.36 that Friday and closed up the next trading day at $61.44. In that post I also MADE my first PREDICTION of when ERTS would self-destruct:
Since then, I have made no claims to short term price movement. The 2 week deal was an animated attempt to stir people like youself up while I was gone on vacation. I made it known clearly that I thought ERTS at $58 was a dangerous short and that it would not drop unitl next year.
I called ERTS short while it was in the mid $60's and I called the bottom when it was trading below $55. I made a prediction of when this pig would drop long beofre August 7.
Your claim that I never made any correct predictions is wrong. I have made 3 of them. The fourth is has yet to be determined. What prediction have you exactly made? I have proven myself, while you have only shown us that your portfolio has taken a big hit.
I am a proven winner. You, well based on your losing performance (IBM, CSCO, MO, SPYDERS etc..), you are a BAGHOLDER.
Good luck jamok.
You need it.
Okay, let's cover a couple of other points, since you brought them up:
<<And you know what? I can understand why you hate me. You can't stand my success>>
Huh? Which universe are you posting from? You've done nothing but yell, "Short this pig!" from the 50's. If you've taken your own advice, you're poorer by the day, at least on paper. Covering your own ineptude with vague predictions that sometime next year ERTS will drop is pretty pathetic. Of course it will drop at some point. It's a cyclical industry - it's a cyclical market. Success? Up the dosage on the anti-psychotics, pal, you're way delusional.
<<You never hear me telling other people who are long and doing well...."you're a jerk"....I tell those winners..."good for you, I am happy, good luck." >>
See above quote from August 7th - is your short-term memory as poor as your reality testing abilities? Sure would appear so. Very gracious posts to the longs - once again, the distortion of the nature of your own posts is so transparent, it's pathetic. How would you explain this - are you a multiple personality, gracious one minute and vicious the next? Actually, I think you and 1930 are the same person posting under different names - or, at least, the same personality type, for sure.
<<Any one who makes money in this market is your enemy>>
As usual, you can't see the correct underlying principle. Plenty of people here make money. No problem with that. Plenty of people here have different opinions or predictions from mine, either sometimes or often - long-time residents such as Rab, Speculawyer, chief, drac, etc. could all testify to that. Very little rancor between us. In fact, if you stopped your lies (psychotic distortions?), you'd see that my approach with most folks is to see what I can learn from their views, if there's something worthwhile there. The difference, and underlying principle, is that you (and 1930) cotninually lie about your own words, arrogantly maintain that you have some 'lock' on what the truth is (see previous posts about bullkiller in terms of how this rigidity, this absolute inability to admit when you're dead wrong - which you have been without fail, so far - is always your own achilles heel), while at the same time managing to be abusive to others is what makes you stink like some dead fish, way overdue for burial. You alienate other people left and right and then mistake their distate for you for jealousy of your, uh, 'success'. Jesus Christopher! You're so blind that we all ought to chip in and buy you a free dog!
I could go on, but why bother - even someone as out of it as you should get the drift.
Let's straighten out your bozo-twisted version of reality, just so newbies don't mistake your blather for truth, and then let it drop:
<<You keep distorting my posts>>
LOL! You distort your own posts more than anything. Go back and look at what you were posting in early August, predicting the immanent demise of ERTS. In particular, for instance, August 7th - verbatim:
<<LOOK AT ALL OF THE RATS....
08/07/02 02:28 am
Msg: 33420 of 33641
COME CLIMBING OUT OF THEIR HOLES!
ERTS UP W/REST OF THE MARKET AND A BUNCH OF RODENTS START SWARMING THE MESSAGE BOARD AGAIN.
I LIKED HOW IT WAS QUIET THE PAST FEW DAYS. IF THAT IS ANY INDICATION OF HOW YOU RATS ARE GOING TO ACT, THEN ABOUT 2 WEEKS FROM NOW IT IS GOING TO BE D-E-A-D QUIET INDEED. ENJOY YOUR LITTLE MUSINGS WHILE YOU CAN.
THERE IS NOTHING BETTER THAN WATCHING RATS EAT CHEESE FROM A RAT TRAP. YOU LITTLE, DIRTY, HARRY, DISEASE INFESTED SCUM (JUST LIKE OUR IMPOSTER FROM NY) ARE ALL GOING TO BE SUCKING DOWN THE POISON PELLETS. ENJOY EATING THEM WHILE YOU CAN. I KNOW THEY TASTE GOOD, BUT DON'T FORGET THAT YOUR HEART WILL STOP BEATING, JUST LIKE ERTS HEART WILL STOP BEATING BEFORE LONG. THESE "REVIVAL" SPIKES UP ARE LIKE THE ERATIC POUNDING OF THE HEART BEFORE IT CEASES TO BEAT AND BLOWS UP. >>
Sometime past 2 Weeks after that post, when ERTS had gone substantially higher, you come back to the board, and act as though you called everything spot-on, and never made such a prediction! So *who* is it that distorts things? LOL! BTW, I've asked you to point specifically to a correct prediction. Total silence. Says it all.)
You keep distorting my posts. I was going on vacation for two weeks back in August idiot, that is why I referred to it.
There are tons of posts where I have stated that this pig will not tank until after this year.
I am sorry that you went long in the $60's when I was short in the $60's and I covered at $55 and called the bottom at $52. That was the only time I have ever talked about stock price movement on a daily basis. You are pi+ssed because before I came in made that $10 call, you were the loudmouth of the board.
And you know what? I can understand why you hate me. You can't stand my success. It is alright for you to sit and cry about your loses. But darn, if others are to gloat about their winnings look out. That is an instant enemy to you. Any one who makes money in this market is your enemy. You never hear me telling other people who are long and doing well...."you're a jerk"....I tell those winners..."good for you, I am happy, good luck."
You are just a sore loser. Your a+s+s got beat in the market, like most most people, no big deal, but you can't deal with it. You envy the winners. Oh well that is your choice.
Good luck in the future.
I hope your ERTS investment doesn't end up like your other ones:
And other than just talking crap, why don't you try contributing something. Oh..I forgot...I am speaking to the "President of the What Should I Do Club?"...sorry about that...continue to be a worthless pri+ck
re: you wrote to bullsh*tter: <<I've noticed you never make predictions. Please tell us WHEN the empire will fall. And you do realize as a short you've been wrong for 12 years? >>
You're incorrect - the last prediction he made was around August 7th, saying that in 2 weeks the empire would fall and for longs 'it'll be really quiet around here'. So that puts his prediction around August 21 of this year - ERTS was up at that point from August 7th, when the prediction was made, and is significantly higher still today. It would be more correct to say that bullsh*tter has *never, ever* made a prediction that was *correct*, rather than that he never makes predictions. (He has learned to keep his mouth shut since that last bozo blunder prognostication, though). I have asked him and 1930 to point to a prediction that either of them made that turned out to be right. Total silence. Says it all. One of these days, just by the law of averages and dumb luck, they'll get it right.
>>ERTS' sales will be flat from here on out, kind of like AKLM:
You think? I don't. ERTS is not depending on the same sports
<<And EA aligned itself with Nintendo way back when. And EA didn't align themselves with Sega for DC, for business reasons (though fanboys would disagree).>>
The reason they didn't align with the Dreamcast is because they were too busy kissing a+s+s to become Square's distributor over in SE Asia. Those were Sony $$$ holding ERTS back.
We discussed the issue regarding business costs in making games for the Dreamcast 1000 times on this board. The consesus was that it would cost nothing to port them over. A two man team could do it. The bottom line is there are a lot of shady dealings going on between ERTS and Sony that we never hear about. It was still was a business mistake to let the 2K series grow and develop a fan base, as it is also a mistake in the present to let the same thing happen for the Xbox.
<<PS3 isn't looking like anything yet, nor is Xbox2.>>
Well, other than their "cell" technology being developed by IBM, you are right..PS2 is not looking like anything yet other than a dream...kind of like the memory stick dream.
Xbox2 on the other hand...we don't know what it will be, but we do know it will be a more powerful form of its current self, basically just upgraded with maybe some Tivo features. Basically it is not going to be something that is "untested" or in Sony's terms "revolutionary." I will take the true and tried any day over the speculative.
Regarding your "42:5," let us just keep it in the US, as their only two games EA sells well abroad (MOH & FIFA). As for their being more PS3s selling than PS2s, I find that hard to believe.
My wife and I waited in line from 8 in the evening to 8 in the morning to buy PS2s for our kids the night before it was released. No way will there be so much hype for the next system, as those people who bought found that the 1st generation games sucked and that they graphics were not even better than the old Sega machine. I have been buying video game systems for a long time, and nothing will ever surpass the hype of the PS2. It is unreasonable to believe that something would. You know it is like a bubble being blown....it is going to pop...you guys taught the growth like they were doing a few years ago for the internet sector. Everything comes down some time or another.
<<ERTS will not be handi-capped next time around since Xbox would be appealing (in your senario) to casual gamers, too, and would certainly include online play by them.>>
Firstly, you shold know that as we communicate here, ERTS' products are not the all-being superior god of other products. In general people don't like ERTS, with their hatred usually coming after they buy the next year's version of the same game and finding out that nothing changed. If the XBOX has potential like you and I both believe, then ERTS should be doing everything it can now to solidify their position on that console. Instead they don't support it by producing an inferior product ie a port. The lose market share that they may never get back. That is the bottom line on that issue.
<<Actually (the market) hasn't (peaked), though market analysts would like you to think so (i read the same report btw)>>
Try telling that to AKLM, NINTENDO, SEGA, NAMCO, and CAPCOM.
<<Again, negative market growth but positive earnings and unit growth. Only in console video games, oh yeah ;)>>
Let's see how revenue and earnings grow next year.