because ERTS just might go nuclear tomorrow on the ATVI news, and toast them! What becomes clear is that THQI is the lame horse in this race,and the fat get fatter. BTW, Bullsh*tter, how about dropping this lame "sometime in the next 4 months, I just know I'm going to be right" vagueness, and be specific about how the ATVI news plays? Even if we accept your 'fantasy' short at 'just below 65', do you cover now or watch it get washed out as ERTS rises to mid-to-hi 60's? Believeable (real-time, that is) trades only, please.
Jamok, I have sold about 1/2 maybe a little more of my long term ERTS and using the proceeds to daytrade in ERTS (quite successfully I might add!) when it takes huge dips which it's prone to do.
I sold because, as you know, I have been holding on to those shares for a long long time and I felt the overall world/US/economic conditions are such that stocks in general are just pretty damn risky right now.
With that said, I still have quite a bit tied up in ERTS with no immediate plans to sell at any price as I continue to have confidence in the company and industry, probably more now than ever before. ERTS really has no serious competition other than themselves, which is a nice position to be in.
ERTS broke a long term uptrend that started in late July when it went to $60 earlier this month. It tried to re-establish the uptrend when it recently broke to new highs on fairly heavy total volume. Unfortunately, this recent selloff has had even more total volume and the price ran right down to the newly established uptrend. The price has to hold above the $60 level to confirm this new uptrend.
I don't know where these people are getting their predictions of $30, $40 since there are lots of support levels (59, 56, 53) that would have to be broken before anything in the $40s is even an issue.
Near term the stock is going to be range bound between the support at $60 and the resistance around $72 (wide range, I know). If it can close today in the green, it's bullish since it looks like the volume is going to come in on the high side.
This is all (obviously) just my opinion. I am not a financial advisor and I don't even play on one TV. Invest at your own risk.
Please do some reseach on NVDA. This is history repeating itself. SAME SCENARIO.>>
I have no problem with you making money - in fact, you might see my advice to you as trying to help you in that goal ;-)
I'm quite familiar with NVDA, and while there's a surface comparison, in terms of a highly appreciated price (and then a precipitous fall), if you dig deeper, there are specific reasons for NVDA's demise that have little parallel in ERTS. For example:
1. PC sales have slowed precipitously. So components (video cards) have done likewise. (Compare: PS2 sales are projected 35 mil. by end of 02, 55 mil by 03).
2. PC prices have dropped precipitously (remember when an average machine was around $3k?). You can now get a decent machine for about $700. NVDA made their really high-margin revenues on the top-of-the-line cards. Few are buying $400 video cards when the machine is a little more than that. Furthermore, there are literally almost no apps that need more than 1 ghz of processor power (Intel's current best is about 2.8 ghz), and video card needs are also behind the curve (I'm getting along pretty well on a GeForce 2 MX - about 3 generations behind bleeding-edge at this point). So the economics, as well as the demise of the furious upgrade cycle is over. They're searching for a new revenue model (software upgrades, like MSFT?) to get back in the running again.
3. Intel's on-board integrated graphics is cutting the aftermarket board manufacturers out of some of the action on the low end.
4. Competition is not only getting competent,but surpassing NVDA, at last in the short term. ATI used to be a laughingstock - incomplete, buggy drivers, consistently slower cards, crappy tech support (well, the last is still true). ATI now has the fastest cards out there for the Christmas season, while NVDA has announced a delay in their next-gen cards until Q1, so they miss the entire Christmas season. Used to be NVDA executed near perfectly - not shipping competitive product in your 'gravy quarter' is a deadly failure.
My own opinion is that NVDA may come back a bit, especially if the economy recovers, as they've stumbled, but are basically a competent and innovative company. But the above factors mean it will never reach it's former glory, as the days of widespread $400 video cards and furious upgrade cycles appear to be over.
Do the research on NVDA? Look deeper than the surface comparisons, is what I'd say.