I hope this stock will hold until I cover my EBAY short. I covered this POS last Monday and moved on.
Bear Sterns reccommended this POS in this week's issue of Barron's. If that doesn't make longs nervous, I don't know what would.
Good luck, nice run. Save some shares for me.
I'll be back.
Yes i am surprised by it's strength as well, but if it continued to 70 i would short more. I know overall market has something to with it or maybe anticipation of April NPD which was delayed. Who knows? All i know is that EA has come full circle and the stock price has been here before and never held. I deal with % risk when i short and so far i am only down 4%, i'll be patient. Thanks for input Jamok.
you have absolutely, positively outdone yourself as a gutless, lying wonder. When I get a little time, I'll find the posts and exact quotes over the last few weeks, but the gist of your lying-ass perfidy is this:
Wasn't it in the last few weeks that you proclaimed yourself "100% CERTAIN" that ERTS would hit "SUBSTANTIALLY BELOW THE 47.50 LOW" by year's end? Why are you closing out your short less than 2 weeks after making that claim, unless you know it's complete and utter bullsh*t? Strike one for Buffoon Boy.
Wasn't it in the last 2 weeks that you proclaimed yourself absolutely sure that we'd see a stock price of 55 "within 15 trading days". Gee, why would you abandon your short position if this wasn't pure horse
Hmmm..if you have any shred of faith in what you've written in the last two weeks, why are you bailing as fast as you can? The coup de grace is this: You obviously got burned, but can't admit it - so you make up another 'fantasy' trade' - (how many 'fantasy trades' have you posted now - answer: OBVIOUSLY - ALL OF THEM) - you claim got out over a week ago but, uh, just 'forgot' to mention it on the board until today. Of course you did. Sure. You just took your time posting it. Can't see any rationale for why you'd do this. It just makes you look even more dishonest than usual (if that's possible) - unless you're angling for the 'shameless scumbag of the year award' - ok, you win - but there's no competition that's even close.
So, to sum up, the reason you refused to take that bet based on your words that you were "100% certain" that ERTS would be sub-40 before year's end was, as you stated, that I hadn't kept an earlier bet (BTW, documented to be bullsh*t by the posts I reposted quoting the history). It had nothing to do with the fact that either you knew you were spouting absolute bullsh*t, and was scared like a little sissy to stand behind your own words, right?? Strike three for Buffoon Boy.
<<I'll be back>>
In a clown suit, and for entertainment purposes only, no doubt. If you reappear, I will repost your perfidy so that no one is fooled. You're exactly what you've always accused others of - a clown and a loser. Look at the bright side - you might have a shot at a circus job - if not as clown, then as side-show freak ;-)
Heh - even your pathetic attempt to 'dress-up' the *way* wrong mis-call of sub-40 with a 'gravy short' at 56 turned out to be wrong. Well, look at it this way - throughout your ugly tenure on the board, you've been 'perfect' - still batting .000
"I hope this stock will hold until I cover my EBAY short. I covered this POS last Monday and moved on."
Dude, you've had a lot of insights into this company and its business, and I still thank you for the early heads-up on the Squaresoft situation, but you have to admit you didn't play this stock too well. I think you've been here at least eight months and I've yet to see any evidence that you made money. ERTS crashed 33% once a few years ago on earnings concerns but that's literally once in a blue moon and there was no reason to expect a big earnings warning or any kind of SEC issues or anything at all to tank the price. Their games are too high quality and they have too much market share *in an increasing market*. There's been no upside because they've been over-valued in the last two years but for the reasons above there's been no downside either! Buy and hold or short and hold have both been unrewarding and you effectively did the same thing you criticized the longs for - sitting on a position that wasn't going anywhere.
Btw I'm also skeptical of any regular poster who declares their position and then *after* the stock goes the wrong way (i.e. from last Monday to today) they announce they quietly got out at that better price a while ago.
Good post, Rab! For once, I almost totally, entirely, completely 100% agree with anything that you say. The part that I disagree with you that the *insights* that you think BS'er has, well, they're so intricate that only an insider would know, don't you agree? His hope for the stock to go to 48 was a severe overestimation of the impact of the Square fallout, which turned out to be nil.
Sega's and Microsoft's weaknesses in this industry underscore EA's strength in this sector. Do not, I repeat, DO NOT underestimate the strength of this king of the jungle!
Thanks for the comments as I have greatly enjoyed reading your posts.
<<Buy and hold or short and hold have both been unrewarding and you effectively did the same thing you criticized the longs for - sitting on a position that wasn't going anywhere.>>
I agree to some extent. However, I came in here last summer and got a nice play out of the S&P news, which was worth about 12% to me. I made a nice chunk of change when covering within a quarter of the 52 week low a few months ago, which came out to be around a 30% gain considering I have more leverage being short. And last week I made a nice small gain covering on Monday from my Thursday and Friday shorts to the tune of about 4.5%. That puts me just shy of 50% for about 10 months on ERTS. I wouldn't consider that "unrewarding," but I do admit that this has been my lowest return year out of the past three years. I would have like to seen this stock trade down for half a year, but it just wasn't meant to be....yet.
I have been surprised about this stocks movement. No shame there. A lot of shorts have been surprised these past few months. I believe the recent moves are more of an anomaly than a trend. I love this stock short at this level, because I believe a $40 share price is imminent. When? I am not sure. It could happen by the end of the year, or could happen sometime next year. I do believe that it will happen. Timing is not so much an issue as time.
<<Btw I'm also skeptical of any regular poster who declares their position and then *after* the stock goes the wrong way (i.e. from last Monday to today) they announce they quietly got out at that better price a while ago.>>
That is fair enough Rab, but I never promised to inform everyone of every move I make, exactly when I make it. I learned from the past not to do that. Big people do read these boards and they are capable of doing some nasty things if they don't like you and know where you stand. I paid a lot of money to learn that small bit. I can always post an actual screen shot which is the most credible proof and still have non-believers. How do you know I even shorted the stock? It is funny that you believe me when I post my entrance, but not the exit. Words are cheap IMHO. Everyone should post image captures of their trade confirmations, when they feel it is the right time to do so.
I am out now, and that is all that counts. I am currently short Ebay. I hope that I can have just as profitable trading in that stock over the next few months as I have had in ERTS.
I am looking for EBAY to top out. I may have shorted it too soon, but I believe over the next two months there will be a bigger trading range on EBAY than ERTS, and hence a better chance to take a chunk. A said a long time ago, and probably more than once that nobody can sell at the absolute top and buy at the absolute bottom (well sometimes ;). The best traders know that picking up the chunk of change in between is what counts. I have my reasons/convctions being bearish on ERTS, that is why I maintain that any short over $56 is gravy. In the scheme of things it doesn't matter where it goes during the short term.
I will be back to this board. I am looking forward to a nice drop in EBAY tommorrow, and if it is good enough, then I will be back sooner than expected. I wouldn't bet on it though. I will probably be there for quite a while, either way.
Last thoughts on ERTS....I think the idea of ERTS buying Sega is total baloney, an excuse to "move" the stock, a tool to "lure" small fund managers that just read Barron's, an unbelievably unreasonable expectation.
I don't see any major force pushing stocks down. There are no new longs in the market who will panic and sell their shares. However, demand and supply will come back into the equation sometime. Right now there is a lot of supply, but very little legitimate demand.