That is a good point. However, if you've been around the PC gaming world long enough you'll know that a game that pushes the envelope and has staying power will cause a mass upgrade cycle to occur starting with the hard-core gamers and the well-to-do who can afford it, then others will follow as the latest ATI or Nvidia cards drop into the 300 range and less. Trust me.
Quake II was one such game, Doom3 should have been but it didn't have staying power so people quickly opted to not upgrade for it. BF2 looks to be something gamers will be playing online and modding for years to come, and they'll want in asap hence buying new hardware. In short, don't worry about this issue. I bought some ATYT and NVDA this week and I have ERTS from $50 now ;)
...not to mention C&C Generals. I remember how we were wondering on what kind of machines did they test the highest details when the fastest machines weren't really showing the beauty we knew was there. If one is a hardcore fan it's a must.
I'm holding a small ATYT position that's been bugging me, and I'd like your view on it. I got it around, I think, $16, and I've been indecisvely toying with selling it each time it dips below 13. The lack of clarity bothers me, both on the SEC suit against the CEO for insider trading, and more so for current supply issues for high end boards, as well as specs, release date (on time in Aug?), and bin yields for their next gen R520 series. This all has to work in order for them to right the ship, and the lack of clarity, coupled with their recent failure to execute properly, is troubling. If in the CC they successfully address these issues, people will see the stock as dirt cheap, if not..... The other point of view is that, long-term, 6 to 12 months out they should have cleared up all these problems, and we're probably headed for a hardware upgrade cycle. So one could just say sit with it and look at it a year from now. But if things go badly, we could see single digits before we see high teens. Your thoughts? Also, did you load the boat at 50, just nibble, or something in between?
Hmmm, yes you're under a bit on that, but not panic time yet. Personally I think it might test the 52 week low tomorrow and I'm in around $12.80 which is fine by me. Right now we're in a bit of a transition for PC cards, but as prices come down and 360 launches it should be party time for ATYT; they also wont get jerked around in pricing from MS (if you're familiar with the MS/NVDA issue and that NVDA won) so that's good. But, I don't think party time for the stock price will happen until late summer. Just a hunch.
I haven't looked in detail at their bin yields and all that jazz, but generally speaking these types of things for any given chipset sort themselves out in 3-9 months. If they give guidance to this effect you should be fine. If they dodge or something, well, maybe time to unload here. Ultimately if it's not something you're dying to get the principle back out of I'd just load some more now, and see what happens and wait. ATYT is hungry to continue their relatively short reign here in this market, I don't think they've held it long enough to get comfortible and that's why I'm confident in the longer term.
ERTS was a 1/3 bite and another nibble at $51.50 before the drop to $47ish. Haven't bought more though wish I did. I'm still uncertain about the next q or so, but otherwise think we're at an okay level. Holding for now :)
You too Jamok. I picked up 2000 shares this morning. I have some in a retirement account but not much. Will add more after we see what earnings bring. Personally I would not mind if it got whooped but I dont thin that will happen since they have already warned. I beleive they could possibly come out with a fair bit of positive spin with Xbox launching in less that 5 months.
Also shorted another 1300 EA and picked up some July puts as well. I am looking to close out some of the short position if we get what I expect to be weak NPD numbers tommorow. I am looking for $33 million in sales for EA or down another 20%. In deeep on this EA short here but I really think this rise is unjustified but as you say EA confounds all reasoning at times.