"I think EA will muddle around 55-58"
I don't think so. Its getting pinched between march and may. If it hits either of those prices 55 or 58, one of those trends will have ended. We should find out very soon maybe within 5 trading days.
Not sure if anyone has posted this lovely article from this week's AdAge:Kind of Good News, Bad News, Hopeful till the End News:
LOS ANGELES (AdAge.com) -- Already battered by months of weak box-office receipts, Hollywood studios are now grappling with an unexpected slowdown in crucial DVD sales.
Viewed as a barometer of the industry, 'Shrek 2,' which was expected to sell 55 million DVDs, sold only 35 million.
For the past eight years, the studios have been able to bank on revenue from sales and rentals of DVDs, which have accounted for 60% of the entertainment companies� bottom lines, compared to just 20% taken in ticket sales. Now, however, there are signs that DVD sales are starting to mirror the recent box-office slump.
Despite having a couple of the biggest box-office hits in recent memory, DreamWorks Animation and Pixar Animation Studios had to adjust their earnings estimates when Shrek 2 and The Incredibles sold fewer DVDs than the companies had predicted. Their stock prices plunged on the news.
Shrek 2 sold 35 million DVDs instead of the 55 million that DreamWorks executives had estimated. (The original Shrek sold 49 million DVDs.) The Incredibles is expected to sell 30 million DVDs instead of the 34 million projected.
Movie Gallery, the second-biggest video-rental chain in the country, blamed this year�s �flow-through of an unimpressive slate of titles� for a drop in its own current business. And, as technology continues to advance, companies like Morgan Freeman�s newly formed, Intel-backed ClickStar are promising to deliver movies to consumers over the Internet.
Box office slump
Given that a movie�s theater run acts as a promotion for the DVD release, the current box-office slump -- the worst in decades, with 19-straight weekends of decreased attendance -- doesn�t bode well, either. �There�s a ripple effect, and studios need the movie to do well in theatrical release,� said Paul Dergarabedian, president of box-office-tracking firm Exhibitor Relations Co. �It�s the engine that drives everything else.�
Compared to last year, when Spider-Man 2 was red hot, this July 4th holiday weekend saw a 16% decrease in box office for the top dozen movies. Year to date, box office is down 9%. Critically lauded movies like Cinderella Man and Lords of Dogtown did not pull in mass audiences, nor did TV-inspired remakes such as Bewitched and The Honeymooners.
For the fourth quarter, an all-important DVD selling time, industry watchers are wondering whether consumers� once-voracious appetite for the format will fall off altogether. �This year so far has been a total shock to people in the film and DVD businesses,� said Scott Hettrick, editor of trade magazine DVD Exclusive. �None of these signs portend a very happy future.�
Nevertheless, the DVD market is still growing -- about 13% this year, largely on the strength of TV releases and children's movies -- but that�s expected to fall into the single digits within the next few years, according to Adams Media Research.
�It�s too soon to be playing �Taps� for any part of this business,� said Steve Feldstein, senior vice president at Fox Home Entertainment. �Fourth quarter will be driven by the year�s big event movies like Star Wars and Mr. and Mrs. Smith, new TV and library product. There will be a plethora of offerings ... that will sell.�
if you check back days ago, I asked this janin if he could back up the "warning" statement and my post went unanswered....he knows nothing and I believe he's going to be rather surprised
check out his overflow of posts...one minute he's pumping the stock, the next he claims to be short and EA is warning...the guy's schizophrenic...best to put him on IGNORE
"check out his overflow of posts...one minute he's pumping the stock, the next he claims to be short and EA is warning...the guy's schizophrenic...best to put him on IGNORE"
I think ERTS has been schizophrenic in the last few weeks.
When averages are down, it shoots up.
When averages are up, it goes down.
Basically, dangerous signs, usually seen with stocks which have no compelling reason to go up - fundamentals are bad. Most fund managers stay away from these stocks. When they have money to put to work, they buy stocks of the companies which seem to have easy-to-understand, good fundamentals.
He's schizo because he's trading it? I don't use ignore because I miss contrary views to my own. Sometimes it's good to read other's views to keep a better perspective. I read some of his posts after the last earnings call and he was right on the money. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. His call about a warning by last Friday at 9am was pure hope on his part. It's a message board and lots of hope gets posted.
btw - why do you feel there is a "surprise" in store? I've been long three times and short twice and still don't see this making a big move either way until there is some news or clarity with the numbers. I would like to know why you feel there is a "surprise" coming. tia
surprised? u think they beat? even if they did their multiple still looks over blown...i say they meet, not ing spectacular either way...however, outlook could be cut a bit, transition is never good and all the hardware permeating the space is going to translate to higher costs with lower sales numbers...i think erts' margins could shrink too..but i dont think we'll really see how the retail outlook shapes up until the 360 is out and if prices stay at $50/copy (which they probably wont)