ATVI reports next Thursday, not today. Although on the surface, ATVI's NPD looks poor (down 29% y/0/y), the real story is that they did better than expectd, especially on their Madagascar title (371,000 sold, quite a surprise), and their quarter is not only solid, but is likely to beat by a penny or two. But as I said, the focus will not be on this quarter, but guidance going forward. ATVI may have an ace up their sleeve, as there will be decreased competition from ERTS (Godfather delay) and TTWO (GTA recall), and so in my mind might guide higher. The questions is, given that ERTS slightly beat NPD expectations, and BF2 is apparently huge, will they lower guidance because of the Godfather hole created in Christmas? They do seem committed to the 7/26 CC date - any delay would unsettle the street in terms of WTF is going on, so I believe they wouldn't delay it unless absolutely pressed. My take - if they lower fy guidance, they get it out of the way and can move on from there, taking their hit now. If they don't revised fy guidance, they're gambling that they can fill Christmas in other ways - problematic from my point of view, and a riskier course as they'd likely have to warn and/or lower guidance later. They need to rebuild street trust, IMO, and coming clean now is better than later. Guess we'll see.
makes sense to me...now what about these earnings delays...did ATVI even report today? ERTS pushed its call back 2 days? My buddy told me weeks ago the ERTS would report 8/2/2005 b/c of some major accounting work, i caught some flack for that piece of info, but i think he almost nailed it on the head...are they in board meetings to figure out how to phrase the upcoming disappointments? in any case, thanks for the personally addressed response...sorry for anything i slammed you wiht in the past, i just tried to goad you out so i can hear something of value rather than izzle's trading diary.
<<ATVI is gonna beat...ERTS will not...ERTS will get hammered >>
Good idea, wrong reason, IMO. ERTS should make its numbers - their NPD was better than expected, and the stock might react accordingly tomorrow. On Tuesday's CC, pay attention to the guidance, not the current numbers - that will determine the price action.