Well, maybe I wasn't digging deeply enough, but prior to E3 I hadn't heard much about Bioshock at all. Now it looks quite promising all of a sudden. I'm saying it's currently shrouded in secrecy, but TTWO definitely keeps its cards close to the vest until they have reason to show them.
Plus, if I understand correctly, not all E3 attendees were invited to the Bioshock demo...kind of secretive. And what about the other unspecified title which was just alluded to on the TTWO board? How can anyone come up with hard projections for how well that will sell? I'm just agreeing with the comment that investing in TTWO does take somewhat of a leap of faith; though at prices around 15, the leap is not very intimidating (with the right investment time horizon).
I'll take a look.
Check out this old trading system if you havent seen it:
One of the turtles made it into a program:
There are some great forums on tradingblox also.
The book was The Encylcopedia of Trading Strategies.
Thanks again, you provide some fantastic information.
www.stockareana.com. There's a $5 lifetime fee, but if it weren't for you and Spec, and a few others on the TTWO board I'd probably forget Yahoo altogether and stick with stockarena.
It really cuts down on the investorreport spamming, and increases the average quality of posts substantially. But I can understand if you don't need another hole in the head...I have trouble just keeping up with those two boards.
I forget which book you're talking about.
For the price movement average-N is the average daily price movement. I use high to low including any gaps from the previous day (true range) then weight it so the more recent price has a bit more weight (average N).
Here is the formula for 20 day average:
days = 20
current_true_range = max(high-low, high-previous_close, previous_close-low)
current_n = ((days-1) * previous_n + current_true_range)/days
You start calculating 20 days ago and work forward. For the starting day (20 days ago) just use the simple average for the first previous_n (so calculage the true range for 40 to 20 days ago add it up and divide by 20).
What you are trying to do is define how much the stock will move based on what it has moved in the past.
Then you use that number to determine how much to buy and where to set your stop. So if you set your stop 2*N away from where you buy (for ttwo it would currently be 2*.60 or 1.20) then you calculate that $1.20 loss so it is only say 2% of your portfolio you will know how many shares to buy for the trade.
I don't use stockarena... I need another message board, blog, newsgroup like a hole in the head :) but if you give me the url I'll check it out.
I use a spreadsheet myself to avg 20, 30 and 200 AVN as well as volume.
Assuming you use the method you described do you and if so where do you weigh trend lines, bollinger, fibs and or MACD's?
Thanks, Monkey. I was about to ask what you thought as well.
I haven't made it too far through the book you recommended yet...it's a little daunting at this point. I assume that even though it's based on futures, it applies to all securities, and trading systems in general, correct?
I guess there are multiple ways to weight the price movements. Do you use an exponential weighting, or does that just depend on the system?
By daily price movement, do you mean |open-close| or |high-low|?
Thanks for the continuing assistance. Do you have a stockarena alias? Your sense of humor and pithy fundamental arguments would be refreshing over there.
Have a great weekend, everyone.
<TTWO is a gut feel stock>
Yes and I would add that so are most :-). I have traded many equities based on fundamentals and or TA only to have them do exactly the oposite of what they should! Guess that's what they mean when they say the Market is smartest.
As far as the titles go I have to look to my kids and their friends. As of now reviewing their titles I saw one game my 10 year old likes. All the rest I never heard of. Like they say buy what you know! FYI we have three systems and probably a combined 100+ games.
More TA for TTWO.
Today a White Spinning Top was formed. This represents complete indecision between the bulls and the bears
Our system posted a WAIT today. The previous SELL recommendation was issued on 04.28.2006 (21) days ago, when the stock price was 17.4300. Since then TTWO has fallen -13.88% .
Stay at cash while waiting the next signal. Do not bother with buying or short selling this stock as long as the WAIT tag stays.