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Electronic Arts Inc. (ERTS) Message Board

  • foolschasemomentum foolschasemomentum Sep 6, 2006 1:43 PM Flag

    Anyone selling on this news

    is just an outright fool. Have any of you been paying attention to the massive pick up in game sales. The bad weather on the entire east coast this past 10 days has only driven more sales. You got to love how bad weather drives video game sales. The Madden release could have not been planned better if they tried.

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    • <<<Reading groundless bullshit from left-wing economic loonies is WAY up on my list of priorities.>>>

      So true.

    • You are a fool. Why would you try to put a label on my comments and generalize, its one man's opinion and I dont plan to be a doom and gloom person if the facts prove me wrong.

      But if you must say that I am on the doom and gloom camp, then you must be a mainstreamer because your response sounds like what an average joe would say. Mainstreamers are generally descibed as a herd of mindless zombies that the big players use as a benchmark so they can act in the opposite direction to make money off them.


      Since you brought up these points I will share my opinion on each.

      1) Record energy prices. It's an issue, but not something we cannot deal with I guess.

      2) Huge record debt. This cannot go on forever. What you say about having been this way for years doesn't mean it will not end badly. It's like having cancer and saying to yourself, big deal, I am still alive today! Evidence points to an end to this real soon.

      3) "Wow, that occurs every few years during a housing cycle". What the heck? A housing cycle? I don't know of any cycles that go up parabolically, a better way to describe it is a HOUSING BUBBLE, instead of trying to downplay the severity. If people actually own the equity in their homes then a 25% drop does not really matter, but again that's not the case.

      4), 5) and 6) Rates are far below historical level, true, but so are personal savings! If one is rich, a 10% rate will be affordable, but if one is broke or does not have savings, a small increase in rates will strain their wallets.

      7) That's stupid. What you're saying is, well, its not that bad yet.

    • If you would like to discuss the CSR or the PSR which you alluded to. Here so old post from me on these topics:

      My point for you is that the CSR is flawed in a variable amount of ways and was wondering why you suggest it�s been accurate for a long time? You do realize that depending on who responds to the consensus it could be skewed by a few percentage points. For instance women and elderly always respond in a more cautious manner opposed to men and younger respondents who are always far more optimistic. As a predictive tool it should be a forward looking indicator not lagging., though it rarely works in this manner. A $7.00 spike in oil prices and a mounting war, hopefully one time events, weighing on people will also cause a significant move in the sentiment, backward looking. Going forward the war has tentatively halted and oil has dropped roughly $7.00. Due to these extraordinary events one could only surmise that the numbers were to come in poor. If in fact the numbers continue to remain poor then more focus should be placed on the CSR. As of now, based on the overall market reaction, this is being looked at as a one time event.
      Also the CSR has some question that quite frankly have no bearing on the average consumer. A 500ish person sample could be easily skewed by demographics alone. Relying on the CSR to back your sky is falling theory is weak at best.

      As for the predictive nature and accuracy of the CSR educate us on this little fact: The recent numbers came in around the lows posted in Oct� 05. So with Oct� 05 being a direct comparison to the recent number/ levels; why is it that the DOW is up roughly 1200 points and the S&P is up 132 points from Oct' 05? Absolute negative correlation my friend!

      As for CCR being a psychological "output", wrong this time around. If it was a negative psychological event the markets would have folded shop on Friday. Psychologically a $7.00 spike in oil and a nasty war caused the respondents to feel pessimistic. You know events directly related backwards to the outcome. The negative psychological response by the overall markets was nonexistent.

      Please define huge following.

      Not everything is black and white and until you have a solid understanding of the gray, you will never make the type of money in the market that is there for the taking. The best traders, those who trade for themselves or companies along with the best fund and hedge fund traders relish the gray area because so many others don�t have an understanding. If everything was so black and white everyone would be wealthier thanks to the markets.

      Next!

      The good old personal savings rate. The way this is presented and calculated for is a outright joke. Anyhow, for it to be a factor in a decision making process it needs to be completely overhauled. It leaves out and misappropriates so many tangibles and intangibles that it deemed misleading as a gage. What puzzles me the most is that a person with any type of economic background knows this gage falls well short of telling the true picture. It is only useful for politicians and lobbyist to help them convince the uninformed masses that they are pushing and supporting the right agenda.

      Answer me this: Over the last 10 years the PSR has declined, yet individual wealth excluding homes in the USA has risen. How is this possible if the PSR is a good gage? It puzzle me. How is it that individual wealth has risen substantially in lower and lower age brackets over the last few years? I mean we have a negative savings rate, right? This just doesn�t make sense.

      In a black and white market places you would have some valid points, yet we do not live with a black and white market place. Learn the gray and think outside the box..

    • I had a similar debate on another board that touches so of your doom and gloom outlook.

      ""For fun I'll address in quick answers your doom and gloom scenario.

      <<1- Record ENERGY prices.>> Yes and no. Natural gas is lower at this point then last year. Gasoline is $3.00 plus and has been for months yet has not slowed the consumer. The rest of the world outside of the countries that produce oil pay over $3-$4.00 a gallon some places over $5.00. The US is just not used to it.

      <<2- HUGE RECORD Credit Card DEBT.>> Oh the American way of life. This has been a mounting concern for so many years. The good is now that card companies have raised minimums people will be forced to re-evaluate their spending patterns and also pay down at a faster schedule.

      <<3- Falling Housing prices.>> Wow, that only occurs every few years during a housing cycle. The good is most homes appreciated so much by historical means that even if the housing market corrects by 25% people are still way ahead of the historical price adjustments.

      <<4- Rising Adjustable Rate Mortgage interest rates.>> Not as bad as you are trying to lead people to believe. Rates are by far well below historical levels, so refinancing into even with penalties is still cheaper then getting a 30 year mortgage locked up 5-6 years ago. If you go back 10 or 15 years it's mind boggling how low rates are. The Fed is more than likely finished for a long time coming so rates aren't going anywhere anytime soon.

      <<5- Ballon LOANS resetting to HIGHER Interest rates.>> see above

      <<6- Credit Card Interest Rates RISING.>> Fractional. Remember years back a low rate on a card started at 12.99% most people for years and years carried cards at 17.99% and higher all during worse financial times.


      <<7- Homeowners already BORROWED from their HOME EQUITY and INTEREST RATES RISING on those loans.>> You don't have to believe it but the well is not close to being dry. Rates on lines of credit are moving up but fixed rates are fixed. Also as stated early rates are still on or at historic lows.

      <<It's a HORROR>> Yeah it is a horror for the low income family that stretched it itself and can't afford their mortgage, but that's a small fraction of the economy in terms of money flows. Even at the best of times these folks were not driving the economy.

      Good luck anyhow but things are not as bad as you are making them out. Terrorism or a war could change things in a snap which is sad."""

      Simply go to a mall or a shopping center the consumer is still going full blast.

    • I apologize for coming off as condescending toward you with the "you're smarter than that" stuff.

      "if people were buying homes to live in them, we wouldn't have a house bubble. Many people bought with zero down or some exotic mortgage terms for the sole purpose for flipping it and making a quick profit...."

      That statement couldn't be more true. When speculators and investors enter the picture, the savvy single homeowner will do their best to capitalize, whether it be with an investment of his own, or selling his house near the market peak for a hefty gain, and then find an apartment for temporary shelter from the storm.

      "....these people are stuck now."

      Here, I respectfully disagree. While those exotic (downright foolish) mortgages are certainly pinching quite a few these days, and will likely continue to do so for at least the next year or so, this does not represent the masses. The hard data from every source (public and private) suggests that home sales have plummeted, and prices will soon follow, because the speculators have left the market.

      Foreclosures are up lately as well, and this represents those who tried to spread their income out too far, and were not financially disciplined enough to do whatever it takes to avoid foreclosure. And you cannot possibly believe that the average person is scraping by. Yes, savings rates are negative. What does that tell us? That people are continually attempting to stretch their paycheck too far (you can't have negative savings without credit cards and car payments).

      From every indicator for growth, across all sectors, in dozens if not hundreds of different examples, the American economy is definitely slowing down, and at very worst, will see zero net growth (thats with inflation) starting within six months or so.

      What surprises me about your strong feelings that we are headed for a massive depression is that it automatically discounts the resiliance of the US consumer. Even if you want to say that every single piece of information out of Wall Street and the government is fudged (I know you aren't suggesting that, but you have been using that argument in a lot of different subjects), where are you seeing the despair? I see people out buying $hit...constantly...just like they always do. Americans love $hit, and if we were really headed for a big fall like you predict, you can be darn sure we will hear about it from Wal-Mart and others first.

    • You just misquoted by quoting half my sentence. It's worse than quoting out of context. Again this shows where your moral standard lies.

      "I barely got through the first page of that link you sent without snorting milk out of my nose"

      Yes, don't worry about it. That happens to mentally challenged people when they talk through their ass.

    • >>What's your stance austin? You just sound like you're bullish on EA<<

      Yep.

      >>When the economy turns, consumer spending will slow and EA's value will fall<<

      ERTS has succesfully survived cyclical economic turbulence in the past.

      >>You should do some research on the topics that I touched upon,<<

      You're kidding, right? I barely got through the first page of that link you sent without snorting milk out of my nose. Oh, yea. Reading groundless bullshit from left-wing economic loonies is WAY up on my list of priorities.

    • What's your stance austin? You just sound like you're bullish on EA regardless of market conditions, and reiterate stats anyone can find on the internet.

      Can you say something intelligible besides quoting stats about how many games EA will sell?

      My stance is simple. When the economy turns, consumer spending will slow and EA's value will fall despite your bullish stance regarding the company and how many games it sold.

      You should do some research on the topics that I touched upon, instead of asking me silly questions to describe each point. But first, I would like to hear your defense for the hedonic accounting methodology used for calculating CPI since you either don't know what it is or you actually think it is a correct methodology.

    • >>his doesn't merit a response. I don't even know where to begin.<<

      I do.

      I think Mr. Thomas-whatever needs to swing by the LLY board and partake of some of the helpful substances created for just his sort of malady.

      (I'll try to find some very large men in white suits to escort him before the Evil Shadow Economic Conspiracy jumps out and gets him.)

    • >>Most Americans have been using the house like an ATM<<

      ROFLMAO!!!

      My Home Depot receipts refute it thus...

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