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Electronic Arts Inc. (ERTS) Message Board

  • rscooter81 rscooter81 Oct 9, 2006 12:00 AM Flag

    Good week ahead of us....

    Time to get back on the long side of this one. To the bears: We all know what the P/E is, you don't need to point that out. In fact, refer to previous posts for rebuttals.

    By all accounts this stock is a dream of a case study for the technical folks. Look at it's history, and then look at the present MACD and stochastics (slow and fast) - you will like what you see. Oh, and if you follow that whole candlestick game, things look pretty darn good as well.

    Some commentary on the upcoming September sales data can be found here:
    http://www.gamespot.com/news/6159411.html

    I've established a position in Gamestop (GME) as well, and looking at ATVI for a short-term trade before they release Tony Hawk Project 8 early next month. The Tony Hawk games are consistently must have titles (although I find them repetitive...interesting to see how the next-gen versions fair). ATVI is also releasng Call of Duty 3...which, IMO will not live up to it's pedecessor in terms of sales (contrary to the opinion of many insiders and analysts). Don't get me wrong, I have no doubt it will be a solid game, but how many times can we fight WWII through the eyes of a naive American teenager in a faraway land? I think the potential upside will have to come from its appeal as an online title. Then again, the second one was so darn good, that buyers of new hardware might pick it up as a must have title like those who purchased COD2 last year.

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    • Rscooter, while I've had a lot of fun throwing spitballs back and forth with this board's more notorious bearshitters, Nullzero seems to be a straightforward type that's just on the opposite side of a trade than we may be. While I don't agree with his reasons for going short, he doesn't strike me as the type that would lower himself to the typical silliness we see from the perma-bears.

    • <<<<<Dont expect to much from the holiday season.(At best it will be a mediorce holiday season for consumer spending.) Most of the holiday season is already priced into ERTS.>>>>>

      Is that right? So what is the deal with the CEO saying the company will be revising upward at the November CC????

      Nice try nullzero....looks like you're getting desperate.

    • Dont expect to much from the holiday season.(At best it will be a mediorce holiday season for consumer spending.) Most of the holiday season is already priced into ERTS.

    • have you looked at the chart of ERTS? it's in an uptrend. relative strength of 90+. going into Christmas season. management said the worst is over. not a good short.

    • The only real fear I would have being short in EA is the potential for a take over target for microsoft (I find this highly unlikely however). The main reason I am short on ERTS is my belief that there is a good chance ERTS will pullback to the 45-50 range. I am not planing on holding my short position more then 4 months, and believe within this time frame I will have a good chance to obtain at least a 10% profit when I do decide to close the position.

    • >>I dont claim to be a pro... im not a hedge fund manager or stock broker just a small time investor/trader out of my home.<<

      I apologize. My response was too abrupt. I should have noted that your replies indicated you were someone not particularly familiar with the inner workings of the VG industry. That's what I do for a living, and I make no pretense about being a pro trader, either.

      >>If BF2142 comes short of this number signifcantly in 2 months, I would write it off as a flop.<<

      I wouldn't expect that 2142 would do quite as well as BF2, but virtually any PC game SKU that makes it over a million is a success. Holiday sales will carry it to that level, I'm guessing.

      >>On the console gaming side: with the low supply of PS3s this holiday season and EAs strategy of focusing more on the PS3 platform is going to hurt them<<

      I'm not sure about that. Some early estimates project Madden and NFS to be the top 3rd-party SKUs on the Wii already, and the Wii will be available in larger numbers than initially projected. I wouldn't be surprised if the Wii outsells the 360 by 3:1 over the holiday season, limited only by supply.

      The fact that ERTS has gone public with upbeat guidance is almost unbelievable for those that have followed this stock over the years. I seriously can't remember this happening in the decade-plus I've been trading it.

    • Also may I add I have yet to see some strength and convicition in ERTS trading above 55 and pushing through the resistance.

    • "Unfortunately those kinds of opinions paint you as an amateur."

      I dont claim to be a pro... im not a hedge fund manager or stock broker just a small time investor/trader out of my home. I never claimed to be a pro... Amateur yes you can call me that I work out of the home and only have a 50k trading account it doesnt bother me im humble about it unlike some people who posts on the yahoo boards and brag or claim to be bigger then they really are.

      "This is a finance board, and that means sales. As long as EA games keep selling, and they're doing so in increasing numbers, then somebody must like them."

      Ok lets talk about sales...

      I believe BF2142 will come up short on expected sales and wont come close to what BF2 did... which was 1.2 million copies sold in 2 months from its june 23rd release. If BF2142 comes short of this number signifcantly in 2 months, I would write it off as a flop. My best guest is BF 2142 will sell somewhere between 300k-500k units in the first 2 months from release and wont hold the same stamina of sales as BF2 has done. I believe the rest of this quarter is a wash for computer and console games because of the transitions in the video gaming industry(PS3 and Nitendo Wii release and mainstream use in console gaming, and Microsoft Vista DX10 usage in pc gaming). If you notice there is a lack of good titles being released this holiday season because of these events, the consumers are waiting for these events to take place and go mainstream before commiting. On the console gaming side: with the low supply of PS3s this holiday season and EAs strategy of focusing more on the PS3 platform is going to hurt them until the price of PS3s drops into the mainstream buying range and supply increases (sometime next year). So this holiday season I expect people buying mainly xbox 360s and past generation consoles (ps2 and xbox.) Sadly to say for EA, on the xbox 360 of the games that sold more then 1 million copies none of them are EAs.

    • >>EA hasnt made a decent game in the last 2 years, instead they go around trying to turn the whole gaming industry into their monopoly.<<

      Unfortunately those kinds of opinions paint you as an amateur. This is a finance board, and that means sales. As long as EA games keep selling, and they're doing so in increasing numbers, then somebody must like them.

    • You make no sense then rscooter81...
      I said
      "From a traders view the market is indeed overbought and due for some kind of pullback."

      You said
      "Strike two. It is not overbought. Check your charts....it is actually closer to oversold."

      Was I ever talking about ERTS? I was stating that the market is indeed overbought. I stated that ERTS was overbought compared to its finacials not from a techincal point of view.

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