Recap of Reasons to like EA for new board readers, ENJOY:
So nobody has a rebuttal for ANY of the points I listed?? Where are all the Bears at??
I welcome an "intelligent" rebuttal (to each numbered item so everyone can keep up) but I won't hold my breath because the typical basher usually has nothing more to contribute than meaningless blather and drivel.
It seems to me some perma-bulls like to value ERTS based on high earnings and high growth. The problem is, it's the nature of the cycle that ERTS tends to have one or the other, not both at the same time. For example, last year was negative growth.
They're probably not going to have a current EPS of $1.50 or greater with a growth rate of 50% or greater, at the same time. If/when their EPS goes over $2 the growth rate will probably be low double digits by then. Therefore the forward P/E is unlikely to stay as high as 50 through the peak of the cycle. Is ERTS really worth more than GOOG or AAPL? And their businesses aren't as cyclic as ERTS is.
I think one of the analysts recently was trying to justify the high price by saying, "Look at peak earnings a few years from now and look at current growth, therefore it's CHEEAAAAAPPP!", conveniently forgetting that at the point they have peak earnings the growth rate could be flat or negative at that time. You know things are expensive when analysts are finding creative ways to explain valuations.
LOL, that was actually sort of funny. At least you learned two new words. BTW, you also know that the same old stuff I've been saying is aimed at timeframe that goes out to the end of 08/09. My oldest posts, in Jun 06' with EA at 40-42, refer to 2 yrs out being mid 08' so let�s see where it's at in mid Jun-Jul 2008. BTW, anyone who started buying back then is up 20-25% in 11 months even after the recent decline...
Over the same time period I've seen posts like this: "NO VALUE PLAY HERE UNTIL PE OF 18", "THIS STOCK NEEDS TO COME DOWN TO $30.00 PER SHARE BEFORE I EVEN CONSIDER BUYING IT. WAAAAAAAY OVERBOUGHT.", "This Pig goes to $15", "sold it all at 45.95"(poor guy), etc..
I refer to longer term outlooks because that gives the predictions the time required to go through the ups and downs along the way. The 09' aspect of the puts I'm trying sell a few more of falls right into that category because, as you know, I predict the stock will be above $60 by that time AT A MINIMUM. Hey, isn't there another guy out there that primarily buys and holds stocks in good sectors for the long term while not worrying about the short term ups and down along the way? Oh yea, I think his name is Buffet... Good Investing to all!!!
P.S. Here's a post from June 06':
I appreciate your opinion Wizard. At least you�re not a hot head like some of the posters in here. I agree that spending the summer in the red isn't so great but like I said before, I don't want to miss the first 20% move while I wait for the upside to start. I still believe in the following taking the stock higher: **Console releases later this year. **Ad revenue increasing & becoming a nice addition to the bottom line over next couple of years. Increased participation in online subscription gaming will add to revenue. Their games!!: NASCAR (more popular by the minute), Madden, Tiger, NCAA football, Soccer (World Cup will add to interest that is huge in Europe & growing in U.S.), not to mention all their non-sports games. I believe that Acquisitions &/or buybacks are also in the near future. The cash EA has will earn more than currently expected as rates go up. I can't see how someone without a position, who has followed the stock, wouldn't at least want to buy a 1/4 position at these levels. If it goes down buy another 1/4. I.E. 40, 38.50, 37, 35.50 for an avg cost of 37.75. Pretty nice if you can get it to drop low enough to execute all those trades. IMHO I don't think the stock will go down enough to execute all those trades but if it did I'd be jumping for joy if I was able to get in with an avg $37.75 position. Good luck to all!! ------------------------------------------------- Notice, I recommended "at least" averaging in on a declining basis because I felt that they someone could just as easily averaged in on an increasing basis to a full position with a $44ish basis (still a great basis to have....) That should be evident by my strong buy rec's on the way up. FYI, my "Strong Buy" would be a "Buy" at $60 and a "Hold" at $65.
I can see a big reason to not be involved with ERTS - GREG MAFFEI. Check this guy out & what he did to 360 Networks (TSIX - Bankrupt) shareholders. Get their money, build a large fiber optic network, file bankruptcy and declare common shares worthless, reissue new stock to more suckers. This guy is a waste of oxygen (imho) and he is on your board.