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Electronic Arts Inc. (ERTS) Message Board

  • eyeod1 eyeod1 Aug 13, 2007 7:35 PM Flag

    more outstanding reviews for madden

    1up(electronic game monthly) 9/10
    Game trailers 9/10
    Yahoo games 10/10
    team xbox 9/10

    Not bad!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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    • HOHOHO! many of you sold your position and listened to my advice? I predicted a buyout on TFSM and I told you to invest in WDC and now up 8-10%. Wow! Due diligence is the key, not speculation from the boards. Don't listen to these loser pigs trying to manipulate you. Use rationale to make your decision and not the other's voodoo speculation that ERTS is going any higher and I don't see it happening.

      the post I made before buyout news came out:

      feel free to email for investment tips. if you want fast short term investment tips, don't bother emailing me. if you want picks for medium to long term investment tips, drop an email anytime. I'm not like the gamblers here; I don't have faith in one company and believe it'll lead me to salvation. I believe there are many different opportunities in the market, so don't think finding one is like finding a needle in a haystack. A wiseman would take a stick of hay and use that as a substitute.

    • I agree completely on the advertising/product placement revenue potential. It's starting to accelerate and should really take off as long as DVR's enable people to skip commercials. The VG makers are letting some of the rev get away though by using "middle men". I had hoped that they would just deal directly with the advertisers or buy a company that does. It's nice to know that they have many other rev growth streams too.

      If you're looking for the easiest play in the sector look at GME (if you haven't yet). They will do very well and their next two qtrs should be great. The problem is that everyone expects it so you're not going to find really low priced call options for it.

      {Quick note on looking for low prices}--> You may very well already know this so if you do please consider it advice for those who don't: Spending $1,000 on a .50 option that goes to $1.50 yields the exact same result as spending $1,000 on a $1.50 option that goes to $4.50 (200%). The same concept applies to stocks themselves. Put another way, it takes a lot of good results/expectations to move a $200 stock 50% but it takes just as much to move a $20 stock 50%. Just because that 50% move is only $10 in the $20 stock doesn't mean it's any easier to get than the $100 move from the $200 stock. Too many people think they can do better with something cheap but it's simply not true. It's all about percentages. Percentages, percentages, percentages...

      Ok, rant over. I'm not sure what kind of investing you're looking to do with options but here's another play on Jan08' options (with another stock though). You could buy GME and sell $50's for a net cost of $44/share. Taken to expiration that's a 13.6% return (around 33% annualized) in only 5 months. You could do the same thing by selling $45's but at a smaller rate of return due to the reduced risk that comes with a lower cost/share. It's a very conservative play (IMO) but you have to be willing to accept (up front) that you have limited your gain. It's a nice rate of return though... You could do the same thing with ERTS and the $55 calls.

      I really don't mind exchanging thoughts so feel free to bring things up. BTW, which network are you with?

      -Flyer (Dave)

      GITA (Good Investing To All)!!!

    • Thanks for your thoughts. I am very optimistic about in-game advertising and the revenue it will bring, but I guess that is another year away. I work in network television and I see the 18-34 male demo disappearing increasingly and I believe they're going to games and internet and I can't help but think that given the high CPM's that demo commands market leaders like EA can't help but benefit and become mini-networks themselves at least on par with a cable network in terms of advertising revenue. But, again, I guess that will take a little more time to mature... Jan 70 calls are probably a very rich man's bet...

      Regardless, thanks again for your insight.


    • Thanks for the compliment kenny, there are plenty of people who would disagree. Never the less I don't mind giving my opinion (as I'm sure you know) LOL... Here's a summery of what I see as the recent issues for ERTS and their prospects going fwd:

      Warning: This is a little lengthy and "very" opinionated (as usual)...

      ERTS has been a hard stock to keep up with over the last three yrs. Between unexpected console issues (PS3 release, Wii dominance), transition pains (a few delayed/lackluster games), options Q's in the overall mkt, employee issues, etc. it's been a very tough stock to call. Additionally, being the behemoth puts a target on them and the law of big numbers is an issue because we all know that it's harder for a big company to get bigger than it is for a smaller one. The competition in the sector is getting more intense as well.

      However, I think EA has done a good job of diversifying its business and should begin to see real benefits in CY08?. By acquiring companies, taking stakes in others (Ubisoft, Neowiz, NCTY), working on more "in house" games, monetizing the Advertising mkt, and partnering up with some media legends (Spielberg & Wright), they have prepared themselves for the next few yrs. One of the problems with the stock right now is that there's still a lot of uncertainty (by some) IRT EA's ability to capitalize on all that "Potential Energy" and turn it into "Kinetic Energy" (growth).

      As for the price: ((IMO)) I really don't see $75-80 as being possible by Jan08'; I think they'll fall a few catalysts short of that. I think it "should" be $60-65 by Jan 08' but I'm not confident enough to bet on it due to all the investor uncertainty I mentioned above. I think $70-75 would have been possible if Spore had been released "this" year, had been as big as I expect it to be, and was been appropriately released (so as not to cannibalize other EA games).

      I do actually think that a big stock gain (as much as 50-70% from current levels) is possible by Jan 09' though. It will take a few things to get to the high end of that $75-85 range. For example: 1) The rest of this year's releases work out well, 2) Spore takes off as expected next year, 3) The investments in at least one of: Neowiz, NCTY, Phenomic Games or Mythic Entertainment really taking off.

      Other things that could either replace one of the above items or "just add on to a great year" could be: More than just 1 of the items in "3)" above taking off, BTE Rockstar results, BTE results from the mystery Spielberg game, BTE results from the Hasbro pact, takeover of someone like Ubisoft or Neowiz, greater ipod/iphone/(Googlephone?) tie-ins, etc. Having enough of these occurring, in conjunction with the previously mentioned ones, could lead to an even greater gain than the 50-70% gains for Jan09' I cited earlier.

      JMHO... GITA!!!

    • You seem to be pretty astute. What is your best guess for ERTS' target price range for Jan 08? (The Jan 08 calls are looking enticing to me.) Do you think $75- $80/share is remotely possible?

      Just curious...

    • 1) <"you're doing everything to raise the price up.">

      -> Oh yes, you are correct; I think there are enough people on these boards to make a difference in the stock price. Yes, yes, yes...LOL

      2) In speaking of me you say: <"your initial intention wasn't to the debate the topic at hand; you were desperately finding every way to discredit my opinion.">

      --> That's a funny statement considering your previous post in which you said (speaking of yourself): "I wasn't starting a debate, so I don't understand why you treated it as one." So which one is it? You either want a debate or you don't. You flip flop too much. 2) "If" you had ever responded to the very specific points that I asked you to respond to, I would respond in kind (and with much nicer tone I suspect). Unfortunately, you have decided "not" to answer those "slightly tough" questions. I say tough from the perspective that it is "tough" when you don't have a meaningful counter point. Instead, you insist on changing the topics and writing about your guesses and presumptions.

      Good luck but I will no longer be responding directly to your posts unless I see a "point by point" response to the paragraph I posted for you previously.

      *BTW, I "have" considered politics but I don't believe I have the stomach for the BS that has to be dealt with. Additionally, I tend to speak my mind but politicians tend to �speak what they think people want to hear them say� (think a �yes man/women� like Condoleezza Rice). I would like to see many changes (both locally and nationally). If a C-D student can become President (not to mention the numerous morons in other levels of politics) you know that "anything" is possible.

      Remember that your City Council members, Mayor, State Rep's, members of Congress, The President, etc. are all "just people". They are just like everyone else and are in their positions due to circumstance. Most often they are not the brightest or best suited. They are simply the one who was on the ballot and got (or bought) the most votes (well not always). I'd actually serve with no paid wage but like I said before; I just don't think I have the stomach for it. I'm also having too much fun investing, volunteering/mentoring, and gardening.

    • Haha. You're a funny guy and pathetic as well. You bought ERTS above 50 didn't you? Now after the drop in 5/06, you're doing everything to raise the price up. The saddest thing is you think it's working. I didn't know whom I was dealing with until I realize the hostile tone in your content-- a board hermit.

      When you read my first post, your initial intention wasn't to the debate the topic at hand; you were desperately finding every way to discredit my opinion. Quite sad. Hey you know what? If investing isn't working out for you, you should try poltics. It's getting more entertaining with each presidential term. Perfect for primetime news!

    • ROFLOL... Just as I suspected; no ability to seriously counter any valid points (even the basic ones). Guess what? Anyone can post a hyperlink; I'm glad I wasn't holding my breath for an intellectual response. You my friend are discredited and your frivolous blather no longer holds any weight; thanks for proving that point. Hey, maybe jojocheng87 can give it a try? Is he a publisher/finance/accountancy/economics too or did he take different classes?

      <"Quite frankly, I haven't read everything in your posts.">

      --> ROFLOL... There's a good excuse for having no ability to provide any counter arguments... "NOT". Oh yea, you're not seeing this because you have A.D.D. LOL... Woops�

      Sorry, but you did get robbed by your school. If it's been less than a yr maybe you can get a refund. Seriously though, you need to send your money (and fast) to someone who "will" do the work before they invest it for you. Do it before you go broke and can't afford to go back to school. Take Care and "Goodbye"......


      P.S. Watch out for those meteors... That was actually sort of funny. Hey, you should try writing kids stories. No, never mind, you need more of an attention span for that.

    • Quite frankly, I haven't read everything in your posts. Maybe I don't have to or I don't feel like it, especially your last one. It's long and boring, and never to the point. It's literary fluff and I want a better quality of literary fluff, I can sure find it better than in a Yahoo! message board. I wasn't starting a debate, so I don't understand why you treated it as one. You can argue all you want with your weak fundamentals, but don't always expect a response from me.

      Anyways, here's an article I finally dug up to support my argument:

      Flyerd1, you wouldn't sell your position if you knew a meteor was heading straight to EA's headquarter. So I don't see why I would waste my time to deal with your stubborness.

      Thank God for the interweb; freedom of speech has never been this free.

    • 1) <"Does it really matter if I use one ID or another?'>

      --> Did I say it did? Nope.

      2) <"With that said, I will tell you what I think about EA's "diversification">

      --> Still waiting.

      Additionally, it's funny that you would mention "a futile attempt to debate your point" because you have said "NOTHING" IRT making a point to refute me... You may have given less than zero (hard to do actually) IRT providing points, facts, etc. I've posted numerous in-depth posts citing comparisons between all the VG makers income statements, specific game line-ups, ad rev estimates, etc on this board. You have given nothing but 1-2 sentences of your opinion interlaced with a bunch of nonsense. I would have thought that all your degrees would enable you to post some very interesting figures (you know, with numbers) from a publisher/finance/accountancy/economics point of view. So far though it�s been very disappointing reading the drivel.

      Let me keep it nice and simple. Here's a clip from one of my previous posts. Try (real hard) to address "EVERY" item in the paragraph and explain why they are not important for EA. A one sentence dismissal doesn't count. For example: your previous statement, <<"I will tell you what I think about EA's "diversification": it does not justify why EA is at the price it is right now. And Spore? What about it?">> is not acceptable because it says NOTHING. Here's the clip for you to refute:

      �Accelerating online sales going fwd from multiple sources, great game lineup (including sports games perfect for the Wii), expanding Ad revenue, exclusive licenses, real time strategy games & MORPG company acquisitions of Phenomic Games & Mythic Entertainment, Stake in Ubisoft, in-flight entertainment, a potential tie-in to IPOD/IPHONE, and two guys named Spielberg & Wright that I hear may have talent. They are also expanding their exposure to overseas mkts like Korea(Neowiz) and China(NCTY). I don't think the SingShot acquisition will hurt them but I'm not increasing my estimates because of it. Who knows though, it may turn into an on-line American Idol. That would add quite a bit to the bottom line..�

      3) <"did I say I use trailing numbers?">

      --> No you did not actually say that. It still strikes me as very odd though that you would even mention it. If you were knowledgeable in the sector you would know that the "small investors" who may use trailing eps are meaningless. It implied that you actually think those small investors could have an impact on the stock.

      Anyway, I better let you let to work. I expect it to take you a while. I can't wait to see an in-depth analysis of that paragraph from a publisher/finance/accountancy/economics point of view. I'm very excited. Well, let's say "cautiously optimistic".


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