Time for action ERTS. I worked for Activion for almost ten years and their goal was to over rule ERTS and it looks like they succeed ! It's a personal queste for Bobby to see ERTS suffer...time for Take Two...
He/she is not trolling and I feel that our discussion has been quite informative for me (if not extremely freaking long and cumbersome to read).
He has legitimate arguments about the future viability of Take 2, management has said a lot but havent proven enough just yet. I am on the more bullish side and he/she is more of a bear having believed Take 2 is at its end game. Thats all.
Why is Stock b me trolling? are you Patchter's illegitimate son? If so, you should be hating him like all others.
I love how everyone has all the facts to pound this troll into the ground. He probably shorted TTWO at $14. Anyone who still calls TTWO a one trick pony doesn't deserve a response now. A year ago maybe, but not now - he's a troll.
so the original point still stands, MC isn't a YoY AAA seller, according to NPD or other independent game sales charting services. once again ttwo's only AAA selling IP is GTA.
fyi from what i have heard in listening to various earnings calls in the games industry, a next-gen title needs to move about 2mm to break even.
according to nintendos E3 press event the ds base is 76mm, half female and a much older customer base. its not a core gamer platform a lot like the wii.
Those are WorldWide life time sales #'s for Midnight Club 3. Since BusinessWeek is reporting it, I would assume they would be utilizing the services of NPD, GFK and ChartTrack. If Take 2 announced it, I would probably question it a bit more also ... Felt this was a pretty reliable number.
On a sales note, if Midnight Club 4 was to perform and sell 1 Million, I think it would be immensely profitable, since it utilizes the GTA IV's RAGE engine.
For GTA: Chinatown Wars, I agree buddy. On one hand you have 110 Million units DS install base and the GTA brand name. On the other hand, you have the questionable track record of hardcore games. I thought 1 Million was a conservative amount for life time sales since any GTA game comes along with huge fanfair. (Just look at this poll on GameFaqs http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3181) No screen shots released, no pictures, details, etc and it is the 2nd most looked forward to game ...
In the movie industry I agree BioShock will be a non-event. What I was concerned with is the extra money that will flow in. If it works out great, BioShock 2 will be a split pot where Take 2 gets to pocket a percentage of the gross. If it doesn't, oh well Take 2 still got paid an upfront amount of Licensing Fees ... this would have a huge impact on the bottom line.
Also 1 thing most people forget, is that MSFT is set to pay Take 2 $50 Million for upon release of GTA IV Episodic Content in FY2009. I mean ... technically speaking it is a 1 time item, but it would keep Take 2 profitable until FY10 when i seriously believe the next GTA will be released near the end.
i dont know what to tell you dude. those MC numbers dont synch with any independent source ive ever seen like NPD or vgchartz.com. given ttwo's history of creative accounting i wouldnt be surprised to see that coming into play with that claim.
like most game related movies the bioshock movie wont happen or will be a non-event. it took what, over 10 years for the doom movie to release? how did that work eh? bioshock just wasnt the kind of sales hit that it would take to make a movie with draw. pretty good game tho. the only game related movie worth keeping an eye on would the jackson halo film but halo is already a big money maker for microsnot.
1mm units for gta ds is real optimistic. how many core non-nintendo games for that platform make big bucks?
Businessweek says 6 Million units sold for the previous release of Midnight Club.
I dont know ... I mean those are pretty high numbers for 1 game. Since it only talks about the previous game and not the whole franchise.
And for the BioShock Movie, I was under the impression it was structured like Spider Man. Take 2 takes a 1 time license payment for the a 1 time use of the IP and studio shoulders all risk and reward. If it does well, BioShock 2 can be made into a film.
For the DS game, what I meant to indicate is they are generally profitable after about 250K units moved. So at 1 Million units it won't affect top line much, but bottom line would move significantly.
I mean ... those were my general impressions from my sources. In all honesty you do bring up good points about the triple AAA status of some of their franchises, something I had not completely considered.
no you dont understand im talking about skus i guess the term is. each release came out on different platforms as well but the only one that sold big numbers was the ps2 version of MC street racing a couple of years ago. depends on the source but supposedly the sales were 1.5mm US 2.3mm worldwide. aside from that one year, a very mediocre selling franchise.
gta chinatown eh? LOL! gmafb. ya i can see all the kids, teenage girls and 40somethings that make up the DS customer base standing in line for that one! geez.
bioshock movie? omfg. put down the koolaid dude. how many games DONT have movie deals? how many of those movies actually come out? how many actually make money? just about none. just ask uwe boll eh? ROFLMAO!
another gta in fy10????? try fy11 at the absolute earliest, 12 most likely.
Wait, hold on. Midnight Club only had 3-4 release and sold 12 Million units told ... so about 3-4 million units per release.
So the year after they will began to bleed cash ... even with GTA: Chinatown, Licensing Revenue for BioShock Movie (Multi-Million License Fee, with no Gross % cut), GTA downloads, and all that other stuff.
I was imagining, break even or a little bit of profit for the FY09 and then another GTA for a big hit FY10.
7mm units is the highest estimate ive ever heard for MC but then that would be over 16 different releases. the only standout release in the history of that IP's sales was the ps2 version at over 2 million. not much else to write home about eh?
ttwo will be able to ride the gta4 hype for the next year and then they'll bleed cash wholesale again imo.