I personally think ERTS is setup for dominance in the video game industry. The quality of their products are by far superior to any of their competitors. They made a few great aquisitions over the past few years and if Star Wars is the WOW Killer then this stock will kill it in 2012. In my opinion, BF3 keeps improving and ignore the reviews, I beat it and it will be tough for MW3 to match that quality in the SP. MP is a different story but I buy games for SP. Anyways, with their game lineup for the Holiday Season and 2012, I dont see how they can fail. Plus, do they not have 0 debt? So as you can see, I am a firm believer that this stock is a Buy if Star Wars is a success its a LOCK to be a Strong Buy. I am a short term trader and for those of you who follow the stock, do you think right this second is a good time to jump in and see a rebound early next week or do you think this will drop to 23 or even 21? If it hits 21, If it hits 20-21 I will load up the truck and go long term but this question is referring to a short term play.
UPDATE: I jumped in at 23.89 and will jump out if I see any drop pre-market Monday. If it falls again on Monday I will get back in, like I said, I am a short term trader and have been very blessed to be up over 30% since I got back into trading on Aug 10th of this year. I will load up the truck for a full year hold if it falls to 20 or so.
Monk, I think for the foreseeable future, (excepting the political fiasco ahead in Nov.) you are correct about making money trading the range of low 23's into 24ish. I like to leverage my money for maximum return and right now I'm sort of zeroed in on the Jan. 2013 30 calls as the play. There is plenty of time left and the range is close enough for now to be realistic. I'm gonna watch for a couple of days before taking the plunge and I will probably wait out the "super committee mess" before buying. I hope to catch it in the worst of that as a great buying opportunity. Anyway, the Jan. 2013 30 calls have plenty of interest and should be easy to unload or for your purposes, daytrade. Good luck out there.
Takes too much time to get to $19, which it won't. $22 is the floor. Day trade at $23 to $24. $22.95 to $23.65. Whatever the spread is, it doesn't matter. NASDAQ at a ridiculous 2740, surprise surprise it popped, EA trades double down with the NASDAQ, is it is down 2.7% while the NASDAQ is down 1.3%. It is like reading the same book over and over, the pattern recognition can be seen by a child.
Don't worry about saving me money my friend, I can't stop making money on this stock.
Why I like to stay all cash at the the end of the day in this market is that the NASDAQ should be at its usual 2500 or under. Waiting for the bubble to burst. It is a stick and move market, grabbing profits quickly when the present themselves.
Although Dale is on to the fact of a nasty political November. Might make a nice buying opportunity as politics crush the PPS of successful companies. But I think EA has no negative catalysts short term and many positive catalysts short term and into March that will keep it out of the $19 territory. Then again March 9 , 2009 showed just how crazy people can be...
It isn't a buyout target anyway. Their core business is declining. Nobody wants to spend $10BN on a barely profitable company with poor management, and the most common cited names (MS, Disney) have both been moving away from the core games model with good reason. And if it were MS, if ERTS can't make money shipping on 360+PS3+PSP+Wii etc. then the losses would be awful if they shipped only on 360.
if they've already shipped 10 million units in the first week and taking reorders... that's huge. people were only estimating 12 million units for calendar years 2011 + 2012. so now if they move those 10 million units ahead of the holidays and take reorders, you are looking at a title that might actually move 15 million units between PS3 XBox and PC platforms. better than most big-feature movie releases this year, with potential for 6-9 months of proactive digital media ad-on sales/expansion packs/maps. this is becoming a better business every quarter. Disney are out of their minds to ignore this asset and allow it to trade publicly. JMHO.
Bad company 2 sold 11 million copies, BF3 shipped 10 million at launch and getting more orders on the game after a few days, JR is bad for this company, ehhumm i think investors like monkab and a few others shoud try to get better in trading instead of writing rubbish about JR! ;)
I would ignore it. Jeetil Patel, a senior analyst for CSFB re-iterated a $12 target the day before February 2011 earnings when the stock went from $15.50 to $18 based on known good merit.
It seems like these large firm analysts are just taking a brief look at the company and applying a general firm-guided model to them to equate their price targets. What they are not doing is taking a good look at the future of the company, their product pipeline, and they don't seem to take the time to understand the industry or the company's momentum (in this case).
Is EA going to make more money moving forward or are they going to make less? Last year they didn't have much other than their usual re-tooled products going into the Christmas season. This year they have a broad array of social games plus monster hits such as BF3 and SWTOR. It is going to be a blow out quarter in a massive way. Unfortunately, they decided to under play it on the 27th. So I imagine there will be a slow increase in PPS more in-line with Overrated's models towards $30+ or a 'big surprise' beat next ER if investors stay on the side lines due to a very volatile national and global economy where investing in companies whose products are based on discretionary spending don't match the criteria for hedge fund managers.
Can't agree that they are far superior to TTWO's products, at least as far as packaged product for consoles, but they have made improvements for sure.
Agree about WOW but since I don't follow this area and have never played any, have no idea.
Totally disagree on SP BF3 not being able to be beaten by MW3. I played it too and while I said it was 7/10, it actually got a little weaker as I played on and some negative reviews were fairly accurate, but not the worst reviews, they sounded like plain old haters. Still haven't gotten into MP so can't say much here. I am sure it will do very well overall.
I too am a trader and got out the day before earnings with my calls at a nice profit, but not what I hoped for, prior to changing my mind about riding thru ER, but glad I made the exit.
Will also look to get back in lower, if it happens.
You make a number of very good points regarding EA over the next twelve months. Right how, however, I think EA or any stock, for that matter, is a dangerous undertaking "short term". If you remember back to the summer and the fiasco that was caused by Obama and Congress not getting along on the budget..... WELL, it's gonna be round 2 in November. I don't think the super committee is going to do any better and there is going to be a nasty food fight in Washington in a couple of weeks with the same characters and the same result. The economy is "slowly" limping along, but not really in recovery mode yet, and Europe is still a looming mess always on the horizon. All that said, EA has had a great run recently and will do very well as time goes along for all the reasons you set out, but short-term; I'd be waiting for some serious dips.
Full disclosure; I liquidated my Jan. call position today; got hung up in a work meeting yesterday when the time for exit was the best and lost a boatload of gain. All in all, for 2011 I was still up appox. 50%, not bad, but not what I had or had hoped for.
Good luck to all, I'll be watching and probably be back in sometime in the very near future. Gotta give EA one thing, this is probably the best game in town re: stock investing, but you still have to work the timing very closely.
Despite 24 hr news in the US relentlessly covering US politics, the overall market volatility over the past 3 months has 100% been all about Europe. This has 0% to do with US politics.
If you haven't been following what's going on in Europe nor reading all about what's going on there, then I would not let macro factors play into your investment thinking. The macro swings are ALL about Europe.
1) Which euro banks are solvent if they have to take a 50% haircut on Greek debt?
2) Will the German taxpayer front the money to keep the banking system together in Europe? (Europe's economy is bigger than the US, BTW)
3) Can the 17 countries agree to a path forward before it is too late? Will the lack of confidence cause a recession in Europe.
4) What about Italy & Spain?
The market is weighing the answers to these questions every day and this is driving the major swings.
Thank you for that very educational reply. I am a apprentice at trading since I started over 5 years ago. Like most, I bought some books and found a passion in investing. I thought that I could beat the market and made a lot of money but it was fast money and eventually the old saying prevailed. I ended up getting out of the "day trading" world with min damage, like a total loss of 5K or 15%. I vowed to stay away until I became more educated and found a strategy that I felt confident in vs. a guessing game of madness. Three years ago Prudential Financial pursued me with a job opportunity but unfortunately, I had to turn it down. It was a very generous offer and a was definitely a career field that is my passion. Anyways, after continuing to educate myself and after 3 years of setting aside funds for this type of investing vs. using savings to invest I got back into the market. I bring this up because I like to believe that I thoroughly study a stock and even look at some tech/charts but I always fail to consider political or other outside factors that could affect the market or industry of that stock. I really appreciate that post because that is a strong reminder of my faults and something I need to focus on. I play a total of 14 stocks and its all stocks that I know like the back of my hand with ERTS, the stock not company, being the newest one added. I may take your advice and take my $100 dollar profit on Monday pre-market. Now, I am serious gamer, I have two xbox's,ps3's, a wii and 3ds. I also have over 400 games and when it comes to gaming, I am an expert. Based on their products only (excluding any fundamentals/technicals) I honestly believe that ERTS is a winner and ATVI is in trouble. I will short the daylights out of ATVI if Star Wars is even half of the "wow killer" the gaming world is waiting for. With BF3 making huge improvements over the series, I am anxious to see how MW3 stepped it up and that will be another catalyst for 2012 because if its just a fraction better, you can almost guarantee that BF4 will finally beat MW3. That would then be two very drastic blows to ATVI and they will either be on life support or breakout with new franchises. Their fall back is Diablo but it could be too little too late after the let down of Star Craft. ABX, AUY and TTWO are my only long plays and I still play those on short term as well. With the launch of GTA's on the MAC, that is just extra income for what is the greatest video game creator in Rockstar. Another of my favorites is Naughty Dog, I need to find out if they are on the exchange. I think they are the ones who create Uncharted, another favorite of mine. Regardless, Mass Effect 3 and Bioshock are both slated for a 2012 release and will both be GOTY contenders. Good Luck to yall and I would appreciate more educated opinions.
Short term pay attention to the server (Battlefield) issue, can really screw things up for them. Can make money if people or returning the game, or buy a game when you need the server to work in order to play and it doesn't. Investors & Gamers might thinking if this game is all messed up, will Star Wars have the same problem.