Down 4.5% in two days based on no company news. When are the "back-end" buyers going to push the stock up 10%? Just imagine if the SWTOR beta is so successful that is pushed the PPS up 30%?!! ERTS will be trading at $23!! Cheerleading IS fun!
It would be a great birthday present and I would be a buyer at that price. Based on my experience when I bought TTWO the Friday before the release of Bioshock (made 17% in two days and got out), I think if you want to play a short-term move prior to a Tuesday release then you will want to buy on the prior Friday or Thursday. I believe Early Access to the game will start on Thursday, so depending on when exactly that starts you may want to buy on Wednesday.