I am a huge gamer and also a stock fanatic. This post excludes all technical and fundamental evaluations but instead, focuses on their products solely. After seeing a report from analyst bashing the game from "chatter" on internet forums, I had to speak up. First and foremost, EA has made some excellent aquisitions in the past. Their gaming lineup for 2012 by far surpasses any other company out there. I am an MMO fan and have been waiting on SWTOR for almost (6) years. I am very active within the game and forums on many of the games sites. Any experienced MMO player knows that these games have many bugs at launch and its not something like a console title such as COD where the released product is not the finished product nor do the first months sales provide a valid indicator for the success of the game. This game has the potential to be EPIC. It has several bugs but overall, it was one of the most smoothest launches I have seen. The trouble is the end game content and the many bugs or lack of content. Unfortunately, EA released this game around Xmas without realizing that would give people a few weeks with time off from work/school to focus on leveling. This has created a problem because it allowed many players to reach end game content well ahead of schedule. There has been a lot of complaints about trouble with PC's running it but for every one complaint, there is 8 people who can run it flawlessly. This happens a lot but the complaints are the only ones that stand out amongst the crowd. I am not sure on what the expectation was but I heard EA was hoping for 700K on the initial launch and ended up with around 1.7M. Now of course this is just the launch not subscribers. With each patch, EA is fixing bugs and making the game better. What most people dont know is, apparently, WoW released a patch that really messed up End Game content and many people are RAGING. This is a very positive sign because this should lead to even more jumping ship. Also, anyone who bought this stock in hopes of a short return from the success of this game, clearly doesnt understand MMO's or the types of people who play these games. I hate to stereotype MMO players but most of them are socially challenged and like to complain, bash or troll for no reason. This may have contributed to a lot of the "chatter" the so called analyst reported and thus downgraded the stock because of it. Bioware is a strong company who focuses on quality and I firmly believe that they will correct these issues and within the next 12 months, you will have a real contender for WoW. These type of games rely on expansions to survive. Given the time frame of the game, can you imagine how many expansion this game could create and if you dare dream of a day when they reach the age of Vader or Luke and other memorable characters, could you imagine the Star Wars fanatics that would flock to this game? The bottom line is the game offers so much more than what it lacks. The numbers, when annouced, may be a let down for short term but the most critical time will be after that first 3 months. I find this game extremely enjoyable and see a bright future. Couple that with their extremely strong lineup for 2012, this stock is definitely a long term buy with a short term hold. With all this said, there is a catch. Diablo 3, Tera and another MMO are scheduled to launch this year. Some are saying the MMO's expected to launch will be epic and that is worrysome. Diablo 3 will be a major hit although its not technically an MMO. I shorted ATVI from 15 to 12 when I called it and also called EA as a buy at 20 and sold at 24ish but then jumped back in aroun 23.50's. I am not panicking because this a long term trade and I am going to wait for the earnings before I gobble up the options. I am expecting a miss and hopefully a drop to the mid to high 15's. I could go into more detail but currently working and on lunch, I just wanted to put this out there.
As for the fool remark for talking about math over a quarter of trading, I used the reference since I took a break from investing so since I started back around Aug, which is more than a Quarter, that is what my returns have been. As for investing, you keep doing what you do and I will do what I do. My returns and trades in that time speak for themselves. I obviously know a little something about investing..PS: This whole post ignored the most important items to research and is based solely on their product. I study fundamentals, techs, sector performance, and everything else before I invest in a stock. Secondly, I do not day trade. I trade about 15 stocks that I know like the back of my hand and feel confident that they are long term buys but play them short term. Instead of hating why not congratulate someone cause I want everyone to do well and make money and there is always more than one way to skin a cat!
WHom are you referring to? I said I made money on it and sold in the 24 or 25s, got back in with half the amount of profit I made on previous trade at 23's and will average in or play some options. I wouldnt sell, this is long term play and will take all of 2012 to see EA's dominance in the gaming industry. I said I am happy with a drop to the 15's where I add 5X the amount of shares or if it goes up after earnings, I may play some options instead of averaging in. Now, my other 40 or so moves were short term since that is what I do and like I said..36 profits, 4 losses and 2 evens with a 30%+ ROI since Aug 10th roughly...
Brad, while I agree about what you said, the math is not wrong. Sometimes I do that just for the fun of seeing the number after a long shot OTM option trade that works out for me. Buy an expiring call for next to nothing and in a day or two it's worth triple what I paid, then multiply that by about 180 or 360 and it's a pretty crazy number, just not able to be repeated regularly without plenty of losing trades along the way.
Brad, don't be like that. Everyone has their own deal and their own strategy, sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. You called the bottom at 19.50 when it was $23, which I applaud you for but you were far off at $16.91 but I am not going to tell you to stop trading or advising people. It is good that people are putting themselves out there (anonymously... lol) with their trades. I like to see what moves others are doing and backing up their mouths for once.
Traders are balls-y people who are trying to make it without/or-while working for The Man. Good luck to all!
You said: " I shorted ATVI from 15 to 12 when I called it and also called EA as a buy at 20 and sold at 24ish but then jumped back in aroun 23.50's"
Bragging when you are now down 23% on your recent EA investment is a bit silly… Let’s push the karma cart over the cliff, right?
Not only has your recent purchase soured but you want/expect the price to drop to $15, at which point you will be down 36% on your recent EA purchase
If you really expect EA to drop to $15 (after gushing about how great SWTOR is) then you would sell right now and buy back before the 'expected' big sell of that you claim is coming
Your window could come right before/after earnings and before guidance (if your predictions about SWTOR are true); of course, it will turn into a great would have, should have, could have story if guidance is higher than expected.
FYI, I enjoyed your write up and hold no prior position but I am now considering a position right here at $18 because I agree with many of your points and see the long term potential here yet don’t believe I can time the market just right to get the $15 price that you are hoping to dollar cost average down on. Even if you double your position at $15 your new average will be $19.25 which is still pretty poor compared to anyone buying today.
Earnings guidance should be quite telling
Yes sir I did brag about those profitable moves but unlike most I do not lie. I made a bad a call by reentering again in the 23's but...its a very small investment and I have since made up for those losses. I of course will either hedge with some options that are looking very attractive or average down my entry price. I will gladly share my trade book which I dont have in front of me but lets say I have made 42 trades since Aug 10th, 36 were profitable, 4 were losses and 2 broke even. My ROI is well over 30% in one quarter of trading this year so I think I can afford to be down in a stock or two. Regardless, I more than made enough on EA to cover my losses ATM. Keep in mind my post completely ignored fundamentals/balance sheets or tech. It was based solely on their product. I have 15 stocks that I trade. I only trade a stock after I study it thoroughly and feel confident that should I get caught in it, it is a long term buy.