If there's one thing I know it's computers and computer games, and Mass Effect 3 is going to be huge. ME2 was the best game I've ever played and the reviews of ME3 say it's just as good or even the best in the series.
Look at what happened to the stock price the beginning of Feb. 2011 a few days after ME2 was released. Also, there's been no run up on the price the past month like there was a month before Battlefield3 was released in Oct. 2011.
I'm expecting the stock price to jump in the next couple weeks as EA releases sales figures, and then jump again in May during their next conference call - very similar to what happened with the stock price for ME2.
Guess you have not been to metacritic yet. The 'professional' reviewers give it 10's but people that bought the game signicicantly less. This another Dragon Age fiasco.
ME3's sales will likely fall in line with ME2's, around 4mm LTD units across all platforms. Those are reasonably solid numbers, but not "huge" by any stretch. (Keep in mind a current-gen title needs to move at least 2mm units just to break even.)
You are so wrong with 4 million number.
Pre orders seem like it is around 1.5 million for the usa and it doesnt include origin sales either. Or Europe and Asia.
That alone shows we are going to kill the 4 million number. Plus you add the dlc for all year EA going to rake in mega cash.
The 40% probably includes the day one DLC bundled in the CC and DD editions. But let's assume it does not.
ME2 did about 2 million units on the 360 so let's be generous and say 1 million copies of the Ashes DLC are purchased at $10. Take out the M$FT cut and your left with $5 to $7 million. Subtract out advertising and dev costs and you aren't exactly looking at COD numbers are we?
Sales on the PC and PS3 will be far less. PC user backlash from the Origin requirement and poor performance on the PS3 is well known.
Good luck. If this pig runs up to 20 before earnings I hope you buy some puts.
Not to mention the recent exodus of senior level people from EA which is never a good sign IMO. And please don't post the recent article in which EA states that the departures have not weakened them. What else would they say?
Indications are that it is selling very well. Best reviewed game this year and new multiplayer element should keep people interested and lead to more DLC.
As for the collectors edition... that is standard procedure. Some are allocated for preorders (those sold out) and other are allocated for release (those are available). They did the same for the SWTOR collectors edition. SWTOR preorder CE sold out months in advance and yet some were available at release though it was pretty limited.
I am not crazy bullish on EA by any means, but the negativity of some is out of line. Given the recent drop, there is considerable upside since there really hasn't been any bad news. I am just arguing for value here. SWTOR and ME3 are successes (not in dispute)and will help the stock (up for debate).
So far your SWTOR thesis does not work.
Read the bottom part about sub #s for SWTOR. Yeah, I know, you will probably say that next month most of these guys will cancel.
"Riccitiello reported 1.7M active subscribers, which sounds like nothing much has changed compared to the earnings report numbers released on February 1. But a month ago about half of those players were still in the first 30 days of the subscription period, which is included with the purchase of the game, while the “vast majority [of players] is now triggered through that point and they’re recurring subscribers.”
Another one for you: http://www.pcgamer.com/2012/03/09/star-wars-the-old-republic-has-nearly-1-7-million-subscribers/
I am sure you do not wish to be confused with the facts.
BTW - they mentioned 40% attached rate for ME3 first DLC. Guess how much more profit this is going to generate?
Don't expect him to provide any significant information beyond general statements.
Unless EA is cooking the books and its execs are lying to the public, EA is currently executing very very well. Watch the Wedbush presentation from yesterday. Listent to what they say about the numbers.
But no, to Austin everything is just spin, and EA will never be able to do anything decent.
To me - the proof is in the numbers, and the numbers tell the whole story. A company that is focused on the right things, not afraid to take risks and innovate, with dramatically improving game quality, market leader in many important segments, and not abanoing its traditional cash cows.
This is a turnaround story, and it is happening in frnot of our eyes.
>>That was a nice pop wasn't it Austin?<<
Decent, but we've seen the pattern before. In two weeks the gain will have disappeared. ME3 isn't a long-term revenue driver.
>>This is just the start from initial ME3 numbers.<<
When that doesn't happen--just like didn't with SWTOR--what will be the next SKU you'll pin your pumping on?
EA is trading near its 52-week low for a good reason. Pay attention.
>>I am just arguing for value here. SWTOR and ME3 are successes (not in dispute)<<
ME3 is a solid seller, not a blockbuster. That's a reality of the sales figures. Blockbusters move stock prices.
Conversely, SWTOR is by every publicly available indicator struggling, and it's only a matter of time before EA will announce that in some form. (Expect a ridiculous amount of spin in the process.) Given the project's monstrous budget, nothing less than a chart-topping blockbuster would represent a viable ROI.