If there's one thing I know it's computers and computer games, and Mass Effect 3 is going to be huge. ME2 was the best game I've ever played and the reviews of ME3 say it's just as good or even the best in the series.
Look at what happened to the stock price the beginning of Feb. 2011 a few days after ME2 was released. Also, there's been no run up on the price the past month like there was a month before Battlefield3 was released in Oct. 2011.
I'm expecting the stock price to jump in the next couple weeks as EA releases sales figures, and then jump again in May during their next conference call - very similar to what happened with the stock price for ME2.
Not to mention the recent exodus of senior level people from EA which is never a good sign IMO. And please don't post the recent article in which EA states that the departures have not weakened them. What else would they say?
>>How is the fastest selling and growing MMO of all time a struggle?<<
And there's the spin, folks. The exact same superlatives have been waved around in many a rosy press release for other MMOs over the past few years, virtually all of which went on to die ignoble deaths or, just as sad, "Free to Play."
Listen carefully to the next earnings release, especially if they discuss the 30/60/90-day rollup and the term "accounts in billing" for SWTOR. Not "registered accounts," "active accounts," "unique logins," "simultaneous users," ad nauseum. There is only one metric that generates revenue and moves the dial in sub-based MMOs, and that's "accounts in billing," and the end of March earnings call should be very revealing regarding the retention rate.
Don't expect him to provide any significant information beyond general statements.
Unless EA is cooking the books and its execs are lying to the public, EA is currently executing very very well. Watch the Wedbush presentation from yesterday. Listent to what they say about the numbers.
But no, to Austin everything is just spin, and EA will never be able to do anything decent.
To me - the proof is in the numbers, and the numbers tell the whole story. A company that is focused on the right things, not afraid to take risks and innovate, with dramatically improving game quality, market leader in many important segments, and not abanoing its traditional cash cows.
This is a turnaround story, and it is happening in frnot of our eyes.
How is the fastest selling and growing MMO of all time a struggle? They stated their goal was 1MM subscribers and they have greatly exceeded that. The most optimistic of analysts projected 2MM subscribers by later this year which is easily within reach.
They have met or exceeded their own and the analysts' expectations. It isn't WoW and it won't approach those numbers, but it will be highly profitable and successful by every objective measure.
Whether or not some of us expected more really doesn't matter. Our money doesn't move the needle. EA has taken hits because of the video game market in general. Having games that at least match analysts expectations will help them recover in the long run as they seem to be able to buck the market trend.
>>I am just arguing for value here. SWTOR and ME3 are successes (not in dispute)<<
ME3 is a solid seller, not a blockbuster. That's a reality of the sales figures. Blockbusters move stock prices.
Conversely, SWTOR is by every publicly available indicator struggling, and it's only a matter of time before EA will announce that in some form. (Expect a ridiculous amount of spin in the process.) Given the project's monstrous budget, nothing less than a chart-topping blockbuster would represent a viable ROI.
Indications are that it is selling very well. Best reviewed game this year and new multiplayer element should keep people interested and lead to more DLC.
As for the collectors edition... that is standard procedure. Some are allocated for preorders (those sold out) and other are allocated for release (those are available). They did the same for the SWTOR collectors edition. SWTOR preorder CE sold out months in advance and yet some were available at release though it was pretty limited.
I am not crazy bullish on EA by any means, but the negativity of some is out of line. Given the recent drop, there is considerable upside since there really hasn't been any bad news. I am just arguing for value here. SWTOR and ME3 are successes (not in dispute)and will help the stock (up for debate).
The 40% probably includes the day one DLC bundled in the CC and DD editions. But let's assume it does not.
ME2 did about 2 million units on the 360 so let's be generous and say 1 million copies of the Ashes DLC are purchased at $10. Take out the M$FT cut and your left with $5 to $7 million. Subtract out advertising and dev costs and you aren't exactly looking at COD numbers are we?
Sales on the PC and PS3 will be far less. PC user backlash from the Origin requirement and poor performance on the PS3 is well known.
Good luck. If this pig runs up to 20 before earnings I hope you buy some puts.
So far your SWTOR thesis does not work.
Read the bottom part about sub #s for SWTOR. Yeah, I know, you will probably say that next month most of these guys will cancel.
"Riccitiello reported 1.7M active subscribers, which sounds like nothing much has changed compared to the earnings report numbers released on February 1. But a month ago about half of those players were still in the first 30 days of the subscription period, which is included with the purchase of the game, while the “vast majority [of players] is now triggered through that point and they’re recurring subscribers.”
Another one for you: http://www.pcgamer.com/2012/03/09/star-wars-the-old-republic-has-nearly-1-7-million-subscribers/
I am sure you do not wish to be confused with the facts.
BTW - they mentioned 40% attached rate for ME3 first DLC. Guess how much more profit this is going to generate?