Electronic Arts Inc. (ERTS) Message Board
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SWTOR to lose TONS of players in June/July
Found a hardcore gamer forum through google.
http://www.cheapassgamer.com/forums/showthread.php?t=301147&page=36
Quotes:
"There's going to be a huge dropoff at the end of June/beginning of July for people (like me) that bought a 6 month subscription. I already cancelled and haven't touched my account in a couple months. "
"For me its not that it isn't good its that you are essentially paying a monthly fee for a single player experience with a few mmo additions. It doesn't seem to implement the multiplayer aspect of it in a very meaningful way."
"My problem is that's it's a WoW clone but doesn't do anything better than WoW other than story telling, but MMO's live and die by the end game. Plus, the end game in SWTOR was beaten within the first week of release, something that should never have happened. It's not the smoothest game either, there were a ton of bugs and glitches that plagued it while I was playing. Not to mention the only thing kept me going was my class story but at level 44 it got so stupid and boring that I had no reason to keep playing so I stopped. It's just not worth the investment, in my opinion. "
"Funny thing happened over this weekend. It was about 5am PST and my buddy and I (not in a sober state of mind) decided to see if we could get into a FP. Login, ask around and wait. My buddy then decides while we wait he will see what is happening on WoW. Guess what? He gets into a raid @ 5am in the morning in less than 5 minutes, while I am just sitting in an empty fleet."
"Meanwhile, Bibeau said that retention for the game had been good among core MMORPG users and the subscribers <sic> loss were casual players.
Oh really? I can name 10 guilds on our server alone that have since left and are FAR from casual gamers. These guys are so out of touch with reality and vilifying the casual crowd as the deserters is hilarious. This game was built from the ground up with casual gamers in mind; so much so it makes me sick and ultimately why I left."-
Okay that's good enough for me. :)
That licensing fee is killer, that's why the breakeven cost is so freaking high (500k subs). Here's a breakdown:
Development cost: 200 million
boxed sets sold: 2 million
revenue after retailer cut per $60 box sold at retail: $48
$48 per box sold times 2 million sold = 96 million revenue
200 million dev cost - 96 million = 104 million in the hole
To simplify the math, lets say 2 million subs for 3 months then 1.1 million subs for 3 months.
2 million - 500k break even = 1.5 million X $15 = 22,500,000 * 3 months = 67,500,000
1.1 million - 500k break even = 600k subs X $15 = 9,000,000 * 3 months = 27,000,000
67.5 million + 27 million = 94.5 million
94.5 million + 104 million retail sales = 198.5 million
So, they might have broken even on the development cost and are finally making a profit on it. July subs are sure to be in decline so the amount of revenue and profit will decline each month. Also keep in mind that this didn't account for advertising and other overhead expenses, just the 200 million number we know it cost to make. So given advertising costs, even if I estimated too low on the revenue numbers, it should be fairly reasonable. -
hmm strange...here's a copy/paste. again,
Re: SWTOR not doing as well 19-Jan-12 10:52 am
i'm shocked that a star wars game with huge licensing fees paid to lucasarts, huge upfront costs, and none of the lovable star wars characters (Luke, Darth Vader, Han Solo, Lea (sp?), chewy, etc) would do poorly. color me shocked.
Rating :
(No ratings)
gpo5e -
BOOM PREDICTED! Why no one here believed me is beyond my understanding. IT WAS OBVIOUS what was happening! People had 6 month subs that were expiring and there were reports that the game was becoming rapidly deserted even before the subs ended! Who listened to me and prevented losses? *crickets*
- 1 Reply to moneyblackhole
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Ur brilliant i admit. A star wars game with no luke skywalker, no darth vader, no han solo, no princess leia, no yoda, no chewbacca, no obi-wan kenobi......that costs $60 + $15/mo isnt selling well??? I i want to give you my next xmas bonus for u to invest. Do u have a newsletter?
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Think I mentioned the end game issues was going to be a problem in jan when the more enthusiastic around here was telling me I didn't know what I was talking about. Wow at this point is like people with AOL accounts. It's comfortable familiarity and that's all it needs to be.
Ea is fine as long as mgmt doesn't panic and decides to bet the house on a roll of the dice. Lots of good IPs to work with, just don't pull another DA2- 1 Reply to sysnoop
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the upcoming patch their website states seems to take care of the majority of the consumers' complaints. Seems they are more focused on improving current content than adding new content, which is a good idea, considering the current content is good, just not accessable since it requires to join up with others, and there hasn't been a tool to connect with others looking to access the same contect yet, which will be implemented in the 1.3 patch probably being released later next month.
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I saw a youtube video about an expansion they're pushing out faster than expected to try to retain subs.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tdtb5UI4fM8&feature=results_main&playnext=1&list=PL92F626B1E5A3C439- 1 Reply to moneyblackhole
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yeah, this sums up the value of your posts.
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yes SWTOR sucks and will not be a contributor to profits. but EA already has this priced into the stock. the driver for this company is execution across digital initiatives. i will buy EA at some point in the future, probably within the coming 6 months. the company is doing a good job of creating the right platforms and business strategies, but it needs to do a better job of launching great games and improve it's ability to innovate new games.
- 1 Reply to mngtscrwdup
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anything that had an subscription base is a contributor to profits. After it stablizes, it will be a key component of the company's ongoing dividends.
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5 qoutes do not equal 1.3 million voices. Even with just 500k subs, the game is making money. The game is green and continuous improvements are implemented; it' a cash cow that has been designed so that it will be around for years to come.
- 1 Reply to octagramt
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How long until the break even cost? Didn't it cost some 80 or 100 million to develop? I'm not sure I'd call it a cash cow until the costs are recouped.
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I think that EA will be a good investment but it's best to wait until the fallout from the MMO is fully priced in.
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