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  • Oncocyte Oncocyte • Mar 28, 1998 1:33 PM Flag

    My thoughts on this stock

    Looks great! I would think of this one as a long term keeper. I am only sorry I heard of it just recently.

    1. Immediate term: The stock has just broken out from a flag and should gain momentum. I see that it has support at 44 7/8 and it should test that again in the next few days before jumping up. If you are interested in buying, place a 45 stop order.

    2. Using the Elliot wave I see that the stock is at the begining of an intermediate wave 3, and at the bottom of an immediate wave 2. Here are my estimates, based of the Elliot theory for the most current wave sequence:

    Base: 34
    Wave 1: 44 1/8
    Wave 2: 44 7/8
    Wave 3 Estimate: 54
    Wave 5 Estimate: 60

    I think that the wave 5 estimate will be an underestimation, due to the momentum this stock seems to be in. I will update you when the wave 3 is completed.

    If you'd like to make your own calculations, I recommend the following books:


    1. Elliot Wave Explained by Robert C. Beckman.
    2. Fiboniacci Applications and Strategies for Traders by Robert Fischer.


    This are 2 short and easy to read books for beginers, but are very practical in their approach.



    Good luck to all.

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    • Raphael8 Raphael8 • Mar 29, 1998 2:28 AM Flag

      Thanks for your analysis. As you might have noticed if you've read my other posts, I'm pretty new to this TA stuff and have
      been sticking very much to the basic trend-lines, moving averages and such. But, I'm benefiting greatly from the viewpoints of
      those using other techniques. Just started looking at point and figure charts, and since your solidly informative post on the INTU
      board, I've been reviewing the section on Elliot Wave in John J. Murphy's TA of the Futures Markets book. Looks like good stuff,
      especially for those of us who are willing to believe there is an order to things: 1,1,2,3,5,8.....

      I agree that ERTS is definitely a long term keeper. But I'll be damn glad to be out on down waves and in on the up if such a thing is possible!

      Thanks for coming over. I hope you find it profitable.

      • 1 Reply to Raphael8
      • Oncocyte Oncocyte • Mar 29, 1998 11:17 AM Flag

        In and out my not be the best policy on certain stocks, which have good fundamentals. ERTS has good fundamentals. The reason I say that is that such stock go through irregular corrections in which the bottom of waves 2 and 4 are actually higher than accelerating waves 1 and 3. The secret is to recognize those stocks and stay the course. INTU is a volatile stock and the corrections are quite steep. ERTS, like MSFT corrects little and hence are a long-term investment.

        As a biologic scientist, I see the Elliot Wave as logical. It is based on the theory that masses of people (biological populations) respond to stimuli on impulses of optimism and corrections of pessimism. The Elliot Wave and Fibonacci numbers explain other natural phenomena as well.

        Good luck to all.

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