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Electronic Arts Inc. (ERTS) Message Board

  • Raphael8 Raphael8 Apr 7, 1998 5:13 PM Flag

    Loading the Boat; Oncocyte, your view?

    Okay, I'll never learn not to try to catch a falling knife... I just like this company and stock too much. I bought more at 42.375 near the end of the day. And, no, I'm not proud of this. Wish I'd had the cajones to buy at below 42. I'm just relieved that we closed at 42.375 on lighter than average volume. There may be hope. Then again....

    Oncocyte: Any revision in your view given the last few days of action? If you have time/inclination, pull up a 300 period 5 minute bars chart from Quote.com and do the Elliott thing on it. Is that a five-wave down? Is this time frame to short to matter? My Elliott wave books haven't arrived, so I'll have to lean on your judgement.

    Good luck to all!

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    • I guess I'll never understand this stuff. The Elliot wave for ERTS was "extremely bullish" when the stock was at 45-47. Now that it's dropped 10% (more or less) you want to consult the tea leaves again. If it didn't work before, what makes you think it will work now?

      Personally, I am certainly holding this stock. Of course it may be easier for me since I bought in at 36. This company is well positioned to take advantage of the next big wave in gaming (the internet), while still holding dominant positions in many of the existing game fields.

      For me the question is not where will the stock be next week, but where will it be in two years. My best estimate is it will probably double in that time frame.

      Raphael, I think we agree on the stock fundamentals. Why not shift to a long term view?

      • 1 Reply to NetProphet2
      • Netprophet2:

        If ERTS were less volitile, I'd be happy to buy it and stick with the long view. But, this stock fluctuates like crazy, providing both risks and opportunities. I prefer not to be in the stock if it looks like it will take a long ride down. Take a look at the ride from late '93 to mid '94; $40 down to $13. And tell me that you wouldn't have liked to sell at $30 and double-down at $13 if you could.

        Elliot Wave may be the equivalent of reading tea leaves. That's not my area yet, but I'm willing to give it a look. I don't think it is reading tea leaves that I could (the night before) tell you that support points existed for ERTS at 42 3/8 and $41+ and have the stock prove that out the following day with a close at exactly 42 3/8. That's just reading the basic signals in a chart.

        I'll grant you that this Technical Analysis stuff provides as much opportunity for foolishness as making money. But, it gives me great comfort to have SOME idea of what the stock should do and prevents me from buying or selling in a panic. I suppose going with the long view would do the same, 'cause I just wouldn't look at the price of the stock for a few years.

        So... if you're in for the long term, why bother to follow this board?

 
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