I tried to post a message about this a few minutes ago, and it didn't seem to take. Here's the short version again. Ask for details if you want them.
The daily and intra-day charts yesterday were mixed but with an indication that the move would continue up. Lately, there's been big volume buying at support levels. Someone thinks the price is going up. With money moving out of Internet and with THQIs strong earnings report, it makes sense that money would move back into ERTS. I'm not celebrating till we break above the downtrend line formed by the recent highs at 47+.
Volume isn't outrageous unless we get 50% above average daily volume. I wouldn't expect that anything is going on behind the scenes unless volume reaches that level and we sustain today's highs without a decent pull-back. If those happen, then I'll wonder about potential mergers, whisper earnings being great, etc.
Cross your fingers that the market doesn't tank before ERTS posts earnings. And good luck to all!
The chart yesterday (daily chart with yesterday's bar added, and yesterday's one-day chart) both gave a mixed signal for a continued move up today. Also, all recent one day charts (from BigCharts) have indicated that volume buying was happening at support levels. Something like 200,000 shares traded in five minutes the other day. So, somebody with money thinks this stock is going up. And I think they are very right!
Add to this that THQI recently reported very strong earnings, and the Internet stocks are taking a beating, and the money logically moves back into ERTS. I'm not celebrating till we break above the downtrend line formed by the highs up at 47+. I think that means something like 46+.
The big move on such an otherwise down day is a bit odd, and may mean that there is something going on behind the scenes (merger rumors, exceptional earnings whispers)... but I won't start to assume that until the volume for the day is 50% better than average and we sustain today's highs without a big pull-back.
Unrelated but interesting: ERTS reports earnings in the first or second week of Feb, May, Aug, Nov. Look back at the bar chart with a simple 10-w moving average drawn on it. Am I crazy, or does this stock like to move toward the 10-w moving average as earnings announcement approaches? Barring exceptionally crazy events like the entire market going into the toilet, that is; in which case it goes lower. Then, on good earnings it renews a move up. Recent history at least.
Thanks for your quick reply. All that volume between about 10:30 and 11:30 had me scrambling to find out what the "in the know people" knew. I am one of these people who believe everything happens for a reason and these nasdaq stocks are minipulated on a daily basis.
What do you see as a high for ERTS by the time earnings are released? I am guessing $52.
I am watching asia everyday. You hear almost nothing about thier crisis as long as our market isn't going down bigtime. It hasn't gotten any better for those economies. MM's are buying into the big lie of low PE's in those markets. A low PE just says that those companies are in trouble. Take a look at things like debt to equity and you get the real picture.
Also May 19 could be big with the Fed getting more and more pressure to move. They believed asia would do thier jobs for them. If it doesn't then they will act then or the next meeting.
Other stocks in my portfolio include CPQ,FDX,FFD,JBIL,CCL and recently added SWR below book value.