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Electronic Arts Inc. (ERTS) Message Board

  • zogotoma zogotoma Sep 28, 1998 3:03 PM Flag

    Good bargin

    ERTS is in its early 40 range now, and I think it's a great
    bargain. If the market is up big time tomorrow and Wednesday, I
    am sure ERTS can jump up a few points easily.

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    • << ERTS is in its early 40 range now, and I
      think it's a great bargain. If the market is up big
      time tomorrow and Wednesday, I am sure ERTS can jump
      up a few points easily.>>


      Fundamentals? Technical Analysis? Hope? All of the
      Above?

      Yeah, sure, it's a bargain, so long as it doesn't go
      down to $36 after you buy at $41.

      Don't get me
      wrong. I love this company, and I love this stock. But I
      sold it short at $49 and covered and went long again
      at $39. Though I'm now long, the recent action
      doesn't make me comfortable. From where I sit, it could
      as easily go to $36 as $45. So, if you've got some
      additional light to shine on the subject, please do. I'm
      willing to be convinced. Otherwise, I'm waiting for the
      chart to tell me what to do, and I'm "hoping" it tells
      me to buy, since I'm already long
      again.

      Finally, to put this all in perspective, you're hearing
      this from a guy who totally blew the recent run up
      from $42 to $50. But I didn't miss the move down. I
      guess that makes me a pessimist when the stock is above
      $40.

      • 2 Replies to Raphael8
      • coaster with a core of loyal long term holders
        (like me) and another core of short term traders who
        create and then try to profit from its volatility.
        Forget the charts and look at the big picture. All you
        need to do is buy when its been oversold and hold...
        for years. After all, if you believe in the Company
        then you believe it's earnings will keep going up.
        Higher earnings can't help but mean a higher stock
        price, if you have the patience to hang on, and 20% tax
        on long term gains.

        I bought Sierra when it
        went public a long term ago and sold it the day CUC
        drove up the price almost 50%. It was a 13 bagger for
        me, on average. Would have been more but I didn't
        start putting in the big money until the last few
        years. The volatility was breathtaking but I believed in
        Ken and Roberta and my kids loved the games.

        I
        believe EA will do better than Sierra eventually. I
        believe this because I read all the computer game mags
        and check the shelves at the retail outlets, and talk
        to the salespeople. I've had core holdings to which
        I have added periodically since the late 80's. The
        transition from cartridges to CDs was excruciating but I'm
        glad I'm still in.

        I've been following this
        board for a long-time and you are one of the few
        posters with any humility. I can see you're a diehard
        chartist but for check David Dreman's exhausive review of
        technical analysis in "Contrarian Investment Strategies."
        Pretty sobering reading for chartists.

        Anyway,
        you're biggest mistake would be to sell short. At some
        point it's going to take off and JUST KEEP GOING, just
        like it did years back when the old video game
        consoles were around.

        Keep the faith.

      • Since the Black Monday a few weeks ago, ERTS has
        been in a
        pattern of moving up and down within the
        high 30 to mid/high 40
        range. There were 2-3 times
        in this month that it dropped down
        to 38-40
        range, then it would pump back up to around mid-40. And

        it slided back down again.
        In particular at last
        week, I noticed the insider sellings have
        been quite
        huge since ERTS reached 50 at one point. I
        think
        many insiders dump a lot of shares each time whenever
        it reaches
        over 45. If this is a pattern for ERTS
        lately, I think the
        current range is a good price to
        jump in. And most importantly,
        October is often the
        strongest month for ERTS in terms of
        stock performance
        because all their good games are coming out
        at this
        time for the holiday season, plus the earning report
        is
        just about 3 weeks away.

 
EA
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