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Electronic Arts Inc. (ERTS) Message Board

  • Raphael8 Raphael8 Oct 28, 1999 5:29 PM Flag

    Kevinslacking: Move the stop up...

    Tomorrow's resistance level is at 78 3/16, so if
    you have a buy stop at 78, you are likely to get hit,
    just before the price plunges (in my dreams). You
    should move it up or cancel it completely just for
    tomorrow to make certain that you don't get killed by a
    false break-out.

    I'm taking this reading from
    the trendline formed by the lows on 8/10/99 and
    9/27/99. This line is the third line of the uptrend fan on
    the daily chart, which we broke on 10/7/99, tested
    10/12/99, and tested again today. It seemed to hold today,
    but it is entirely possible (desireable) that we test
    it again tomorrow at 78+, so that we hit that magic
    number before a retreat.

    We are overbought on the
    daily chart, and primed for a turn back down,
    particularly since tomorrow is Friday, and anyone trading long
    will be looking to close out their positions (sell)
    before the weekend.

    If we don't move low enough
    tomorrow, everyone will be back at it on Monday, trading
    from the long side, and we'll likely continue the move
    up to the mid 80's. Ideally, before we move up for a
    serious breakout that can't be reversed, we should touch
    a price around 72+. But, if we close that low,
    we'll be turning the intermediate trend back down. What
    a mess. Basically, it could still go either way,
    but once it forms and holds a new uptrend line on the
    daily chart, you better be long.

    Best of luck to
    all.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • <EOM>

    • I'm having my period ;)

      no hostility intended

    • I've got no beef with you. Like2Watch jokingly
      asked about a scenario that would bring ERTs down into
      the 50s -- I just presented one.

      "Kombat" has
      sold
      less than 20,000 copies on the DC. "Blitz", less
      than
      35,000 (compared to NFL2K's 150,000

      copies),according to the latest TRST's. CAN YOU
      SAY LOSS
      LEADERS.... "
      I realize Midway is no threat to EA. Like
      you, I acknowledge EA is the king. Why all the
      hostility?

    • I'm not going short (okay, I lied, I took a
      handful short for a couple bucks this morning based on
      the break of the 15-minute chart, but I'm not
      supposed to!) because the weekly trend it up. At the
      moment, we're below the level that turns the daily trend
      down, so we may well have begun the pull-back that is
      either the chance to get in, or the beginning of the
      decline.

      Thompson's is interesting this morning. Sell orders
      aplenty:
      http://www.thomsoninvest.net/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_page?ticker=ERTS&0=Go&i=3&order=1

      Yesterday Gerard Clauer Mattison's (sp?) analyst raised his
      target from 90 to 98. I didn't see a time frame
      mentioned in the blurb on WSJ online.

      Agree that the
      50's are still possible. Maybe even
      inevitable.

      Definitely don't want to miss another MACD divergence!!! A
      weekly would be a whopper.

      I don't have anything
      against the Fibonacci projections, I just never know,
      until after the fact, whether or not to take them
      seriously. I look at them, but compare the readings to trend
      lines and highs/lows. I try NOT to be
      superstitious.

      Nsthil: Yeah, if I could get the emotions out of my
      trading, I'd be a wealthy man.

      Best of luck to all.

    • We cant really say if DC wil be a flop. All we
      know is that it is selling above plan. There are also
      more games developed for DC at launch than any other
      console prior to it. The most important tell tale sign
      will be the Holiday Season sales. If they are good
      then the game sales will follow. What they need is a
      must have game like Pokemon on the DC. Early word is
      that the products in demand this Christmas wil be
      Donkey Kong, Wrestlemania, Pokemon and the DC consoles.
      We will see how it pans out.

      Best of luck

    • Elder also stresses the psychological side of
      trading in the first couple of chapters. It sound as if
      you guys got locked into bearish mode on ERTS even
      though the charts were starting to look ominous.

    • Did you not notice that in both of the past 2
      days of "Heavy Volume", there was a block trade of 1.2
      Mil shares. Both blocks were when the price was at a
      near high for the day. Remove the block trades, and
      the daily volume becomes normal.Go ahead short the
      stock. Nothings makes those of us wo are long on the
      stock feel better than seeing the shorts getting
      burnt!!!

      GO LONGS.

    • employee of the month) Being an avid game player,
      I can tell you that this will NEVER happen. The
      japanese are fanatical about the PSX, and it WILL be a
      huge success in the US. EA will NOT support the DC.
      They have now stated that clearly..... GTIS will NOT
      support the DC. CAPCOM, has already stated that they
      intend too no longer develop for the DC, due to
      dissapointing sales in Japan. Wake up.... BTW.... "Kombat" has
      sold less than 20,000 copies on the DC. "Blitz", less
      than 35,000 (compared to NFL2K's 150,000
      copies),according to the latest TRST's. CAN YOU SAY LOSS
      LEADERS....

    • Well, okay, it's only a slight possibility. If
      interest rates continue up (and the Market seems to be
      assuming the next .25 hike will be the last and there will
      be no inflation) we will go back to the 50's without
      a problem. I somehow doubt I'll see my 53 target
      though. Maybe only 57.

      I'll be watching carefully
      to see if this move up can get the weekly MACD
      higher than the last peak. If it doesn't, it will be a
      HUGE sell signal; and THEY will sell. They were
      already today at 84+

      Nsthil: I think Raphael isn't
      going short here because weekly MACD (intermediate
      trend) is up, and Elder (I'm also a fan) prohibits
      trading against the intermediate trend, which is what we
      both did by holding a short past 73 3/4! The heavy
      volume seems to say there are ready sellers at this
      price. ERTS certainly has plummeted from these types of
      peaks in the past; a short should be good for a few
      points.

      Raphael: Thanks for the compliment. I
      only wish I'd profited from it. Let me know if I'm
      wrong about why you're not short here. And, hey, what's
      wrong with the Fibonacci's?! (Okay, I'm a superstitious
      kind of guy.)

      Luck.

    • 1. DC explodes in 2000
      2. PSX2 bombs
      3. EA
      stubbornly clings to PSX2 development instead of supporting
      more popular next gen platform

      With PSX2
      retailing for $370 at Japanese launch and games possibly
      priced at $65 to cover the high production costs (Koei's
      launch title, Kessen, reputedly costs $8 million to
      produce), the top 2 scenarios could very well play out. EA
      is too smart to allow the third to play out,
      however.

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