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Electronic Arts Inc. (ERTS) Message Board

  • sydney_cricket sydney_cricket Jul 27, 2000 10:15 AM Flag

    Out again. Awaiting a pull back

    ERTS cannot hold with this tape. IMHO

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    • $84 range Raph so I hope you covered some. I
      covered at 85 7/8 but it did not make me anything as my
      average on those shares was around 86 5/8.

      After
      last weeks crushing move on some other stocks I have
      decided to take my money and go long on a few like TFS,
      VSH. Will lookk to reenter again around
      $90.

      Also added to ATVI ahead of earnings. Geez if ERTS can
      do so well on reduced estimates and with a high
      valuation maybe I will also get a pop out of ATVI. They
      dont have the PS2 lineup of ERTS but current slate of
      PC and PS games doing better than average.

    • This stock has moved from the 50s to
      95 in
      three or so months...in the same three months, the
      analysts adjusted last quarter earnings from
      8c(i
      think) to a loss of 65c...and when ERTS reported only
      -60c, we go up 15 bucks in two days!!! (They
      beat
      the numbers (!))...ERTS is definitely being groomed
      for greatness...I'm in for the ps2 ride up, but i
      didn't quite expect this movement so early...any ideas
      as to what the upside is for us?...and when
      do we
      bail?...(next earnings report is
      suspiciouly close to ps2
      launch date...)


      t7

    • at my own stupidity. I won't bore you with my sad
      story. The short version is that I covered some at 77+
      when we didn't go down on Wednesday, but broke out on
      the 15-minute instead. BUT, I didn't cover enough to
      feel good about shorting more yet. Once again, I
      should have covered the rest at $88 so I could short
      $95. Live and learn (or not).

      Watching to short
      a break on the hourly. May have to cover my current
      short and take my lumps if it doesn't break. Hoping
      that spike at the close on Friday was just short
      covering.

      Best of luck to all.

    • That sounds like a great way to lose $$$$$$$$$$$.
      You keep covering at lower levels and buying at
      higher levels with no hope of recovery if the stock
      simply continues to move up. Are you playing this game
      on margin? Risky, risky.

      BTW, I am absolutely
      dumfounded at this run and I am one of the biggest bulls on
      the board. I also pride myself on my ability to
      target the trading range of ERTS but boy did I miss this
      one. This feels like last year all over
      again.

      BTW, you have got to ignore the PS2 response in Japan.
      Japan has had little to no effect on ERTS earnings in
      the past and is in no way indicative of how that PS2
      will do here.

    • Black and White may not have cost EA much at all
      in dollars. When Peter Molyneux wanted to leave
      Bullfrog/EA he was under contract and a big reason they
      purchased Bullfrog was for the properties he was
      instrumental in creating and maintaining (Theme Park, Dungeon
      Keeper, Populous, Black and White). But his departure was
      inevitable and the fall-out was that his first game (B&W) be
      published and distributed by EA and if I remember correctly
      his next two games are also to be distributed by EA.
      So the cost of the development and the property
      itself are moot. The real cost is to Bullfrog's future.
      That wasn't a cheap acquisition and you're really
      paying for the talent, but the talent followed Molyneux
      out the door. What with Lionhead, Mucky Foot, and at
      least one other start-up EA has lost many of the key
      developers and designers of the properties they paid big
      bucks for. His departure was well documented at the
      time in a big interview in the UK trade mag
      CTW.

      As an aside, while B&W should do extremely well it's
      also the last title Lionhead will lead with on the PC.
      Similarly with the Unreal Tournament developers, they're
      moving to consoles for their game development. Yet more
      evidence of the PC as a dying gaming platform, especially
      when the X-Box comes out. Sure an occassional game
      like the Sims or Diablo sells over a million but
      console titles like Final Fantasy sell 9 million. And
      most PC titles sell very poorly, Madden for example is
      outsold by it's PlayStation brother by something like
      12:1.

      Spec, thanks for the www.ebworld.com link but you
      obviously missed my "Let's be honest, they're not the
      cheapest out there" remark. A quick comparison with
      www.express.com e.g. shows DC games like Tony Hawk's, Baseball
      2K1, Marvel vs Capcom etc. all significantly cheaper
      there, by as much as $9. ELBO won't be getting my
      e-money.

      btw Marlon, point acknowledged about the numbers game
      :)

    • big but it is scheduled for the December qtr and
      pretty close to the end of November. Would be crapy if
      they missed the scheduled date a missed Christmas
      season. I suspect the profits from Black and White would
      not be that huge because it was such a highly touted
      title and it is developed by Lionhead ERTS probably
      paid a pretty penny for the rights to publish. Will
      not be as big a money maker as the SIMS have been for
      ERTS.

    • That was quite the coup for ERTS to pick it up. I wonder how much that ended up costing them?

    • I disagree with your statement that nothing big
      is coming this year. Black and White will be huge.
      That game looks totally bad ass. I'm going to waste at
      least a week playing it myself... But, if your point is
      that this stock is getting ahead of itself, that's
      hard to refute. I'll ride it up and down, because I
      like what they do, and I like what they plan to do.

    • but last year for the September qtr EA posted
      revs of $340,000. They released 7 PS titles, 6 PC
      titles and 4 N64 titles. Nothing big coming this year.
      Those revs will be way down and will also be down for
      the December qtr. but not as bad. If they overship in
      the December qtr they run the risk of not managing
      the qtr well in Jan to March and will end up taking a
      hit at that time as was the case with MWY when they
      shipped tons of Ready to Rumble during DC launch and then
      shipped almost none 3 months later.

      But that is
      part of the reality of new console launches. It will
      take some time to get enough consoles out there to get
      the real benefits from great titles.

    • What is clear is that they wont make 1 billion in
      revs this fiscal year which ends March 2001. 150
      million this past qtr and less than that for the summer
      qtr. Limited PS2 availability and lack of push for PC
      and older console games as well as no newness there
      will probably result in revs for the year being around
      800 million at best.

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